The following is the part of the
famous Ticker interview in which W.D. Gann gives his explanation of
the Law of Vibration. 下面是著名的《交易与投资文摘》杂志对GANN的采访部分。W.D.GANN给出了他对振动法则的解释。
"For the past ten years I have devoted my entire time and attention
to the speculative markets. Like many others, I lost thousands of
dollars and experienced the usual ups and downs incidental to the
novice who enters the market without preparatory knowledge of the
subject.
过去十年中,我已经在投机市场投入了我全部的时间和精力。像许多人那样,我损失了数千美元,经历了市场经常出现的上下起伏。如果初学者没有足够的有关知识就进入市场,遇到这种情况是难免的。
"I soon began to realize that all successful men, whether lawyers,
doctors, or scientists, devoted years of time to the study and
investigation of their particular pursuit or profession before
attempting to make any money out of it.
我很快认识到,所有成功的人,无论是律师、医生还是科学家,都花费了许多时间研究调查他们所追随的目标和职业,然后再试图从中赚钱。
"Being in the brokerage business myself and handling large
accounts, I had opportunities seldom afforded the ordinary man for
studying the cause of success and failure in the speculations of
others. I found that over ninety per cent of the traders who go
into the market without knowledge or study usually lose in the
end.
成为经纪人管理大型的账户后,我获得了一般人很少能够得到的机会,研究其他人在投机市场中成功和失败的原因。我发现百分之九十的交易者进入投机市场是没有掌握有关的知识,最后都是输掉为止。
"I soon began to note the periodical recurrence of the rise and
fall in stocks and commodities. This led me to conclude that
natural law was the basis of market movements. I then decided to
devote ten years of my life to the study of natural law as
applicable to the speculative markets and to devote my best
energies toward making speculation a profitable
profession.
很快我就开始注意到,股票市场和期货市场的价格起伏中呈现周期性循环。根据这种现象我得出结论:自然法则是市场运动的基础。然后我决定,专注的研究自然法则,以便能够应用到投机市场中,以最大的精力投入到投机市场,这是个利润巨大的职业。
After exhaustive researches and investigations of the known
sciences, I discovered that the Law of Vibration enabled me to
accurately determine the exact points to which stocks or
commodities should rise and fall within a given time. The working
out of this law determines the cause and predicts the effect long
before the Street is aware of either. Most speculators can testify
to the fact that it is looking at the effect and ignoring the cause
that has produced their losses.
经过对相关学科的彻底研究和调查,我发现振动法则(law of
vibration)使我能够精准地确定某些位置,在这些位置股票和商品期货的价格将在给定时间周期内上升和下降。通过研究振动法则我能够确定价格起伏的原因,能够得到大大领先华尔街的预测结果。大多数的投机者都验证了这样的事实,正是紧紧关注结果而忽略原因的做法导致了他们屡屡受损。
"It is impossible here to give an adequate idea of the Law of
Vibration as I apply it to the markets, however, the layman may be
able to grasp some of the principles when I state that the Law of
Vibration is the fundamental law upon which wireless telegraphy,
wireless telephones and phonographs are based. Without the
existence of this law the above inventions would have been
impossible.
若要给出一个合适地定义我应用于市场的振动法则几乎是不可能的,然而外行们也许可以通过下面的描述把握一些原则。我认为,振动法则是无线电波、无线电话和照相技术所依据的基本法则,没有这个法则的存在,上述的发明是不可能的。
"In order to test out the efficiency of my idea I have not only put
in years of labor in the regular way, but I spent nine months
working night and day in the Astor Library of New York and in the
British Museum of London, going over the records of stock
transactions as far back as 1820. I have incidentally examined the
manipulations of Jay Gould. Daniel Drew, Commodore Vanderbilt, and
all the other important Wall Street manipulators from that time to
the present day.
为了验证上述观点的有效性,数年来我不仅辛勤工作,而且在纽约的阿斯托图书馆和伦敦的大英博物馆花费了九个月的日日夜夜,翻阅了从1820年开始的股
市记录。我无意中偶然发现了Jay
Gould、Daniel
Drew、Commodore
Vanderbilt和华尔街其他著名操盘手从过去到现在的操作记录。
I have examined every quotation of Union Pacific prior to and from
the time of E. H. Harriman's securing control, and can say that of
all the manipulations in the history of Wall Street, Mr. Harriman's
was the most masterly. The figures show that, whether unconsciously
or not, Mr. Harriman worked strictly in accordance with natural
law. 我曾经检验过Union
Pacific公司从哈里曼(E.H.Harriman)牢固控盘那个时代的股票行情。可以说在华尔街的历史上,在所有的操盘手中哈里曼先生是最杰出的。数据显示,无论哈里曼先生是有意识还是无意识地,他都严格地按照自然法则操作。
"In going over the history of markets and the great mass of related
statistics, it soon becomes apparent that certain laws govern the
changes and variations in the value of stocks and there exists a
periodic or cyclic law, which is at the back of all these
movements. Observation has shown that there are regular periods of
intense activity on the Exchange followed by periods of
inactivity.
对市场历史以及大量相关统计资料的分析表明,股票价值的变化和波动显然是由确定的规则所控制的,因此存在周期性的或者说循环的法则,这些法则是所有价格变化的基础。观察表明,在交易市场中异常活跃的交易往往是在一段不活跃的时期之后出现。
Mr. Henry Hall, in his recent book devoted much space to 'Cycles of
Prosperity and Depression’ which he found recurring at regular
intervals of time. The law which
I have applied will not only give these long cycles or swings, but
the daily and even hourly movements of stocks. By knowing the exact
vibration of each individual stock I am able to determine at what
point each will receive support and at what point the greatest
resistance is to be met.
亨利.霍尔先生在最近的著述中花了很大的篇幅描述“繁荣与萧条的循环”,他发现了繁荣与萧条以一定时间为间隔的周期重现。我所用的法则不仅定义了这些
长期循环或震荡,而且也定义了每个交易日、甚至股价以小时为单位的波动。通过了解每单个股票精确的波动率,我可以确定在什么价位市场会得到支持,在什么价位上市场会遇到最大的阻力。
"Those in close touch with the markets have noticed the phenomena
of ebb and flow, or rise and fall in the value of stocks. At
certain times a stock will become intensely active, large
transactions being made in it; at other times this same stock will
become practically stationary or inactive with a very small volume
of sales. I have found that the Law of Vibration governs and
controls these conditions. I have also found that certain phases of
this law govern the rise in a stock and an entirely different rule
operates on the decline.
密切接触市场的人会注意到市场的潮涨潮落现象,也就是股价起伏。在某些时间,市场会变得很活跃,创出更高的成交量,在另一些时候,相同的股票可能会几
乎保持静止,只有很小的成交量,非常不活跃。我已经发现振动法则主宰和控制着这些情况的出现。我也发现某些阶段,振动法则主宰着股市上涨,而完全不同的规
则主宰着股市下跌。
"I have found that in the stock itself exists its harmonic or
inharmonic relationship to the driving power or force behind it.
The secret of all its activity is therefore apparent. By my method
I can determine the vibration of each stock and by also taking
certain time values into consideration I can in the majority of
cases tell exactly what the stock will do under given
conditions.
我已经发现,股市中存在的和谐的与非和谐的关系成为市场的驱动力量。然而所有市场行为的奥秘是很明显的。依据我的方法,我可以确定每只股票的价格波动。并且通过把某些时间刻度纳入考量,在大多数情况下我可以确切地说出在给定的条件下股价将怎样变动。
"The power to determine the trend of the market is due to my
knowledge of the characteristics of each individual stock and a
certain grouping of different stocks under their proper rates of
vibration. Stocks are like electrons, atoms, and molecules, which
hold persistently to their own individuality in response to the
fundamental Law of Vibration.
确定市场趋势的能力来自于我对每只单个股票特性的了解以及对某类型不同股票选择恰当的波动率。股票是活生生的电子、原子和分子,他们倾向于按照各自基本的振动法则保持自己的个性。
Science teaches 'that an original impulse of any kind finally
resolves itself into periodic or rhythmical motion,' also 'just as
the pendulum returns again in its swing, just as the moon returns
in its orbit, just as the advancing year ever brings the rose of
spring, so do the properties of the elements periodically recur as
the weight of the atoms rises.' 科学告诉我们:“任何形式的原始的脉动最终都会分解成为周期性的或者说韵律运动,正如同钟摆在摆动中再次返回原来位置,正如同月亮返回自己的轨道;正如同来年春天再度来临,玫瑰花再度开放;正如元素的性质随着原子自身重量的增加而周期性地再现。”
"From my extensive investigations, studies and applied tests, I
find that not only do the various stocks vibrate, but that the
driving forces controlling the stocks are also in a state of
vibration. These vibratory forces can only be known by the
movements they generate on the stocks and their values in the
market. Since all great swings or movements of the market are
cyclic they act in accordance with periodic law.
经过广泛的调查研究和实践验证,我不仅发现了各种股票价格的波动现象,而且发现控制股价的驱动力量也处于一种波动状态。这种波动力量只有通过他们对股价和市场价值产生作用才能够反映出来。既然市场所有的大的震荡或者运动是循环出现的,它们的行为确实与周期性法则一致。
"Science has laid down the principle that 'the properties of an
element are a periodic function of its atomic weight.' A famous
scientist has stated that 'we are brought to the conviction that
diversity in phenomenal nature in its different kingdoms is most
intimately associated with numerical relationship. The numbers are
not intermixed, chaotically and accidentally, but are subject to
regular periodicity. The changes and developments are also seen to
be in many cases undulatory.' 科学发现了这样一条规律:“元素的性质是原子重量的周期函数。”一位著名的科学家这样表述:“我们确信在不同王国中多种多样的自然现象是非常紧密的以
数字关系联系在一起的。这些数字不是杂乱无章的、不是混乱无序的、不是偶然出现的,而是有规律的、周期性的。变化和发展也是以各种形式波动起伏。”
"Thus, I affirm, every class of phenomena, whether in nature or in
the stock market, must be subject to the universal law of causation
and harmony. Every effect must have an adequate
cause.因此我确信,每一类现象,无论是在自然界中还是在股票市场中,都受到宇宙的因果关系与和谐关系的法则所控制。每种结果都有一种恰当的原因。
"If we wish to avert failure in speculation we must deal with
causes. Everything in existence is based on exact proportion and
perfect relationship. There is no chance in nature, because
mathematical principles of the highest order lie at the foundation
of all things. Faraday said: 'There is nothing in the Universe but
mathematical points of force.'
如果希望在投机市场中改变失败的状况,我们必须探究原因。每一种存在都是以准确的比例和完美的关系为基础的。在自然中没有选择,因为作为最高准则的数学原理为世间万事奠定了基石。法拉第说:“除了数学的力点以外,宇宙间再无其他。”
"Vibration is fundamental; nothing is exempt from this law; it is
universal, therefore applicable to every class of phenomena on the
globe.
振动是基本的,没有任何事物存在能够逃脱这个法则。它是普遍的因此能够适用于地球上的各类现象。
"Through the Law of Vibration every stock in the market moves in
its own distinctive sphere of activities, as to intensity, volume
and direction; all the essential qualities of its evolution are
characterized in its own rate of vibration. Stocks, like atoms, are
really centers of energies, therefore they are controlled
mathematically. Stocks create their own field of action and power;
power to attract and repel, which principle explains why certain
stocks at times lead the market and 'turn dead' at other times.
Thus to speculate scientifically it is absolutely necessary to
follow natural law.
根据振动法则,市场中的每一个股票都是在特定的范围内运动,例如不同的运动速率、不同的成交量和价格的不同方向,运动的基本性质由各自的振动比率描述。股票正如同原子一样,是能量的真正核心,因此他们是被数学法则所控制。股票创造自己的运动范围和动力,也就是吸引和排斥的力量,这些力量的原理解释了为什么某些股票在某段时间领先市场,在其他时间阶段则“死一般沉寂”。因此,科学地投机肯定需要遵循自然法则。
"After years of patient study I have proven to my entire
satisfaction as well as demonstrated to others that vibration
explains every possible phase and condition of the
market."
经过数年耐心地研究,我想已经证明了并使自己非常满意,同时我也向其他人展示了振动法则,它解释了市场各种可能出现的阶段和情况。
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