加载中…根据M1-M2差异来占卜A股的大底
(2012-01-16 16:10:56) | 分类： 宏观 |
以前曾看过一些前辈的文章，通过分析M1与M2的增长差，来看指数的牛熊走势。我觉得M1-M2的差，虽然与指数并非完全正相关，但确实可以做一个方向性的判断，至少可以看出指数的大体估值区位，以及判断出指数的上涨主要是基本面因素推动还是资金面因素推动。
2005年到2011年货币供应量表
最近我们亲爱的温总理表态，说A股跌得多了点，大家的年不好过，于是中石化、中神华、中联通的领导马上响应号召，出手增持，但A股勃起仅2天，然后就焉了。根据A股不靠谱的历史记录，我们知道市场底与政策底往往会有些时间差，08年差了近2个月。
现在我来占卜一下，根据A股历史政策底与市场底的时间差，结合M1-M2差数与指数的相关性，本大神预计A股这一轮的市场底应该在2月底3月初，点位2000，不信我们走着瞧，哈哈。
| 月份 | M0(亿) | m0同比 | M1(亿) | m1同比 | M2(亿) | m2同比 | M1-M2 | ||||
| Jan-05 | |
7.8% |
|
15.8% | |
14.5% | 1.3% | ||||
| Feb-05 | |
14.0% |
|
11.1% | |
14.2% | -3.2% | ||||
| Mar-05 | |
10.1% |
|
10.4% | |
14.2% | -3.8% | ||||
| Apr-05 | |
9.0% |
|
10.5% | |
14.3% | -3.8% | ||||
| May-05 | |
9.3% |
|
10.4% | |
14.6% | -4.2% | ||||
| Jun-05 | |
9.6% |
|
11.3% | |
15.7% | -4.4% | ||||
| Jul-05 | |
9.1% |
|
11.0% | |
16.3% | -5.3% | ||||
| Aug-05 | |
9.4% |
|
11.5% | |
17.3% | -5.8% | ||||
| Sep-05 | |
8.5% | |
11.6% | |
17.9% | -6.3% | ||||
| Oct-05 | |
9.5% | |
12.1% | |
18.0% | -5.9% | ||||
| Nov-05 | |
10.9% | |
12.7% | |
18.3% | -5.6% | ||||
| Dec-05 | |
11.9% | |
11.8% | |
17.6% | -5.8% | ||||
| Jan-06 | |
22.1% | |
10.6% | |
19.2% | -8.6% | ||||
| Feb-06 | |
8.0% | |
12.4% | |
18.8% | -6.4% | ||||
| Mar-06 | |
10.5% | |
12.7% | |
18.8% | -6.1% | ||||
| Apr-06 | |
11.5% | |
12.5% | |
18.9% | -6.4% | ||||
| May-06 | |
12.8% | |
14.0% | |
19.1% | -5.0% | ||||
| Jun-06 | |
12.6% | |
13.9% | |
18.4% | -4.5% | ||||
| Jul-06 | |
12.2% | |
15.3% | |
18.4% | -3.1% | ||||
| Aug-06 | |
13.3% | |
15.6% | |
17.9% | -2.4% | ||||
| Sep-06 | |
15.3% | |
15.7% | |
16.8% | -1.1% | ||||
| Oct-06 | |
14.0% | |
16.3% | |
17.1% | -0.8% | ||||
| Nov-06 | |
13.9% | |
16.8% | |
16.8% | 0.0% | ||||
| Dec-06 | |
12.7% | |
17.5% | |
16.9% | 0.5% | ||||
| Jan-07 | |
-4.6% | |
19.8% | |
15.8% | 4.0% | ||||
| Feb-07 | |
25.1% | |
21.0% | |
17.8% | 3.2% | ||||
| Mar-07 | |
16.7% | |
19.8% | |
17.3% | 2.5% | ||||
| Apr-07 | |
15.1% | |
20.0% | |
17.1% | 2.9% | ||||
| May-07 | |
13.9% | |
19.3% | |
16.7% | 2.5% | ||||
| Jun-07 | |
14.5% | |
20.9% | |
17.1% | 3.9% | ||||
| Jul-07 | |
15.1% | |
20.9% | |
18.5% | 2.5% | ||||
| Aug-07 | |
15.0% | |
22.8% | |
18.1% | 4.7% | ||||
| Sep-07 | |
13.0% | |
22.1% | |
18.5% | 3.6% | ||||
| Oct-07 | |
13.4% | |
22.2% | |
18.5% | 3.7% | ||||
| Nov-07 | |
13.6% | |
21.7% | |
18.5% | 3.2% | ||||
| Dec-07 | |
12.2% | |
21.0% | |
16.7% | 4.3% | ||||
| Jan-08 | |
31.2% | |
20.5% | |
18.9% | 1.7% | ||||
| Feb-08 | |
6.0% | |
19.0% | |
17.4% | 1.6% | ||||
| Mar-08 | |
11.1% | |
18.0% | |
16.2% | 1.8% | ||||
| Apr-08 | |
10.7% | |
19.1% | |
16.9% | 2.1% | ||||
| May-08 | |
12.9% | |
17.9% | |
18.1% | -0.1% | ||||
| Jun-08 | |
12.3% | |
14.2% | |
17.4% | -3.2% | ||||
| Jul-08 | |
12.3% | |
14.0% | |
16.4% | -2.4% | ||||
| Aug-08 | |
10.9% | |
11.5% | |
16.0% | -4.5% | ||||
| Sep-08 | |
9.3% | |
9.4% | |
15.3% | -5.9% | ||||
| Oct-08 | |
10.6% | |
8.9% | |
15.0% | -6.2% | ||||
| Nov-08 | |
9.0% | |
6.8% | |
14.8% | -8.0% | ||||
| Dec-08 | |
12.7% | |
9.1% | |
17.8% | -8.8% | ||||
| Jan-09 | |
12.0% | |
6.7% | |
18.8% | -12.1% | ||||
| Feb-09 | |
8.3% | |
10.9% | |
20.5% | -9.6% | ||||
| Mar-09 | |
10.9% | |
17.0% | |
25.5% | -8.5% | ||||
| Apr-09 | |
11.3% | |
17.5% | |
26.0% | -8.5% | ||||
| May-09 | |
11.2% | |
18.7% | |
25.7% | -7.1% | ||||
| Jun-09 | |
11.5% | |
24.8% | |
28.5% | -3.7% | ||||
| Jul-09 | |
11.6% | |
26.4% | |
28.4% | -2.1% | ||||
| Aug-09 | |
11.5% | |
27.7% | |
28.5% | -0.8% | ||||
| Sep-09 | |
16.0% | |
29.5% | |
29.3% | 0.2% | ||||
| Oct-09 | |
14.1% | |
32.0% | |
29.4% | 2.6% | ||||
| Nov-09 | |
15.0% | |
34.6% | |
29.7% | 4.9% | ||||
| Dec-09 | |
11.8% | |
32.4% | |
27.7% | 4.7% | ||||
| Jan-10 | |
-0.8% | |
39.0% | |
26.0% | 13.0% | ||||
| Feb-10 | |
22.0% | |
35.0% | |
25.5% | 9.5% | ||||
| Mar-10 | |
15.8% | |
29.9% | |
22.5% | 7.4% | ||||
| Apr-10 | |
15.8% | |
31.3% | |
21.5% | 9.8% | ||||
| May-10 | |
15.2% | |
29.9% | |
21.0% | 8.9% | ||||
| Jun-10 | |
15.7% | |
24.6% | |
18.5% | 6.1% | ||||
| Jul-10 | |
15.5% | |
22.9% | |
17.6% | 5.3% | ||||
| Aug-10 | |
16.0% | |
21.9% | |
19.2% | 2.7% | ||||
| Sep-10 | |
13.8% | |
20.9% | |
19.0% | 1.9% | ||||
| Oct-10 | |
16.6% | |
22.1% |
|
19.3% | 2.8% | ||||
| Nov-10 | |
16.3% | |
22.1% |
|
19.5% | 2.6% | ||||
| Dec-10 | |
16.7% | |
21.2% |
|
19.7% | 1.5% | ||||
| Jan-11 | |
42.5% | |
13.6% |
|
17.2% | -3.6% | ||||
| Feb-11 | |
10.3% | |
14.5% |
|
15.7% | -1.2% | ||||
| Mar-11 | |
14.8% | |
15.0% |
|
16.6% | -1.6% | ||||
| Apr-11 | |
14.7% | |
12.9% |
|
15.3% | -2.4% | ||||
| May-11 | |
15.4% | |
12.7% |
|
15.1% | -2.4% | ||||
| Jun-11 | |
14.4% | |
13.1% |
|
15.9% | -2.8% | ||||
| Jul-11 | |
14.3% | |
11.6% |
|
14.7% | -3.1% | ||||
| Aug-11 | |
14.7% | |
11.2% |
|
13.5% | -2.3% | ||||
| Sep-11 | |
12.7% | |
8.9% |
|
13.0% | -4.2% | ||||
| Oct-11 | |
11.9% | |
8.4% |
|
12.9% | -4.5% | ||||
| Nov-11 | |
12.0% | |
7.8% |
|
12.7% | -4.9% | ||||
| Dec-11 | |
13.8% | |
7.9% |
|
13.6% | -5.7% |
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