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Philip Yau

yauphilip@hotmail.com

钻石批发名单和钻石零售的清单是IDEX的版权，请不转发或发布
**只有微博钻石群组成员可见**

 

钻石系列第7号。钻石批发价格在过去的10年的变动（2001-2012）

目的：
研究中期到长期趋势方面对钻石批发价格，

1。钻石的大小
2。钻石的质量
3。钻石的大小和质量的结合
4。覆盖超过10年期间，从2000年1月至2012年

样本大小：0.30ct，0.50ct，1CT，2CT，3CT，5CT
样品的质量：D色内部无瑕的净度（IF）即DIF（高），FVS1（中高），HVS2（中），JSI1（中低）

假设：钻石切割是非常优良（高 Excellent to Ideal）

 

参考：Rapaport国际钻石价格表, Idex钻石价格的报告

结果：
请参阅图1

http://s4/middle/62551ee5gbb586026f183&690


钻石价格2001年至2012年内平稳增加（图1）。在过去10年增长约25％的平均增幅。随着2008年例外的世界金融危机，钻石遭受价格总体下降了13％. 其余时间价格走势稳步上升。

在为期10年的25％升幅与其他项目比较：例如通货膨胀率，食品和/或贵金属价格似乎有点偏低。

价格变动包括了以下要素

1。钻石的大小（在这里，我们采用0.30克拉，0.50克拉，1CT，2CT，3CT，5CT）为分析的目标。
2。钻石的质量（在这里我们使用JSI1<低质量>，HVS2<中等质量>FVS1<中高>的质量和DIF<高品质>）
3。彩钻和微小钻石不包括在这项研究。 在过去10年，其价格波动严重

 

请参考图2
http://s15/middle/62551ee5gbb58603d3a6e&690
价格比较
1。 JSI1，HVS2，FVS1和DIF
2。 0.30克拉，.50克拉，1.0克拉，2.0克拉，3克拉，5克拉
3。从2001年到2012年

很明显表明：
金科玉律第1号：质量更好钻石如DIF（增加85％），获取更好的价格涨幅相比低质量的钻石（如JSI1增加42％）。

 

请参考图3
http://s5/middle/62551ee5gbb586061e1b4&690
1。混合不同质量的的钻石在一个锅里(JSI1，HVS2，FVS1和DIF) 作为比较的目的
2。过滤与不同大小的0.30ct，0.50ct（小钻石），1CT，2CT，3CT和5CT钻石（大钻石）
3。从2001年到2012年

金科玉律第2号：规模较小的钻石价格获得较小的价格增长。（某些情况下如0.30克拉在10年期间的价格录得下降）。较大的钻石，较大的价格增长（例如5克拉收在超过10年期间，录得有61％的增长。远优于美国债券市场的回报。

 

请参阅图4
http://s6/middle/62551ee5gbb5860834445&690
1。钻石品质和钻石大小的混合可以严重影响其价格上涨模式
2。用FVS1（中高品质的钻石），对比不同大小钻石在10年期间的上涨模式。
3。 看到0.30克拉有-23％（负增长），而5克拉，价值增长192％

可能的原因：在钻石需求的转变（中国因素，F色疯狂）
                    供应毛坯钻石的价格和数量

 

然而，黄金法则仍然适用的: 钻石更大，更好的增加

其他类别：
1.   DIF0.30ct-2％与5CT172％
2。 HVS25CT0.30ct-5％和132％
3。 JSI130克拉0％和5CT114％

 

请参阅图5
http://s1/middle/62551ee5gbb5860ba4340&690
1。与其他类相比，DIF（高品质的钻石）获取更加稳定物价上涨
2。周年％增加由 0.30克拉-0.2％至5克拉。 17.2％
3。普通顾客是很难就作出在较大的高品质的钻石投资，由于下列原因
A）偏高买入价
B）巨额的投资本金，如5CTDIF 可能要1,000,000美元一颗
C）再销售渠道是有限的

 

请参阅图6

http://s10/middle/62551ee5gbb5860c969b9&690

1。低品质的钻石（JSI1）长期录得稳定价格上涨。 0.30ct JSI1是唯一的类别，获得0％的增长（其他类别的 0.30ct 小钻2001 到 2012 都录得负增长）。
2。两个黄金规则适用，0.30ct 0％的增长对比5CT增长了114％的价格。
但大小钻之间波幅较其它类小。

3。 5CT JSI1现时，造价约 每颗100,000美元（DIF5CT价格的1/10）
4。 但5CT钻石每天佩戴可能太大。1CT JSI1镶在珠宝上的成本约每颗USD5800。从我们的研究看到，1CT JSI1的回报率从2001年至2012年是25％。 2CT是53％。 3CT是61％

请参阅图7
http://s14/middle/62551ee5gbb5860e012bd&690
购买钻石时要考虑的因素

首先，2金科玉律，大小和品质

当谈到现实，还有一些其他因素
1。作投资用途或珠宝的钟爱
2。钻石的替代品。如彩钻钻石粉红色钻石或翡翠，和田玉，金，银等
3。财政预算案（知道2金科玉律以上，但你会为您的投资购买所有的大钻石？
4。其他要考虑的因素如价值下跌的风险，安全，存储，保险。等
5。转售通道（对普通消费者有些困难）

 

其他一些注意事项：
彩钻：粉红色钻石
粉红色钻石是世界上最稀有和珍贵的钻石。阿盖尔矿是世界上无与伦比的强烈（vivid）的粉红色钻石的首要来源，生产世界上供应的95％。然而，阿盖尔钻石生产的一个非常小的比例是粉色，其实不到1％的十分之一，被列为粉红。
其中价格上升速度更比无色钻石（白色）快得多。

 http://s10/middle/62551ee5gbb92df2cc4f9&690
 

 

如上图：粉红色钻石USD7000/ct

 

 

http://s2/middle/62551ee5gbb92e57c9871&690

 

好的和坏的钻石切割：钻石腰部的厚度

 

 

钻石的切割：

切割对钻石的价格也有显着的影响。由于理想切割 （ideal, excellent）的供应有限，加上优异切割钻石，切割技术比较复杂等的因素，还有消费者现接收更多的教育，并要求质量更好的钻石，价格增加的速度对比（好至非常好Good to Very Good）要来得快，从钻石的可行性有限的比较定期切割钻石

 

http://s14/middle/62551ee5gbb92f6138f0d&690

好的和坏的钻石切割：ASET图表

 

 

http://s8/middle/62551ee5gbb930d51de47&690

好的和坏的钻石切割：钻石对称问题

 

 

欢迎评论和转发本文，但请尊重知识产权，说明本研究的的来源
非常感谢

yauphilip

 

http://s1/middle/62551ee5gbb5862584a50&690

http://s12/middle/62551ee5gbb58627066eb&690

 

http://s9/middle/62551ee5gbb58627b7978&690

 

 

钻石批发名单和钻石零售的清单是IDEX的版权，请不转发或发布
**只有微博钻石群组成员可见**

 

 

Objective: 

Study medium to long term trend on diamond wholesale prices with respect effect on

 

1.       Size of the diamonds

2.       Quality of the diamonds

3.       Combination of size and quality of diamonds

4.       Cover period over 10 years from 2000 to 2012 January

 

Sample size used: 0.30ct, 0.50ct, 1ct, 2ct, 3ct, 5ct

Sample quality used: D color Internally Flawless Clarity (IF) ie DIF (high), FVS1 (Medium High), HVS2 (Medium), JSI1 (Medium Low)

 

Assumption:  Cutting of the diamond is Very Good to Excellent (High)

 

 

Reference:  Rapaport Diamond Report  IDEX Diamond Price Report

 

Findings:

Refer to Diagram 1

 

Diamond prices increases at a steady rate over the 2001 to 2012 (Diagram 1).  Average increase about 25% increases over the past 10 years. 

With the exception of 2008 with the world financial crisis, where diamond suffered a 13% overall drop in price compared with 2008, price trend is rising quiet steadily. 

    

A 25% increases over the period of 10 years seemed a bit low compare with for example the inflation rate, foods and/or precious metal prices. 

 

There are elements contributing to the price structure

1.       Size of the diamonds (here we take only .30ct, .50ct, 1ct, 2ct, 3ct, 5ct for the analytical purpose)

2.       Quality of the diamonds (here we use JSI1 (Low quality), HVS2 (Medium quality) FVS1 (Medium High) quality and DIF (High Quality)

3.       Fancy color diamond and star melee diamonds were not included in this study. Price of such fluctuated quite seriously over the past 10 years

 

 

Please refer to diagram 2

 

Price comparison between

1.       JSI1, HVS2, FVS1 and DIF

2.       .30ct, .50ct, 1ct, 2ct, 3ct, 5ct

3.       From 2001 to 2012

 

Quite obvious to show that: 

Golden Rule No. 1: Better quality diamond eg DIF (High quality with 85% increases) fetch a better increase in value than the (Low quality with 42% increases) JSI1 diamonds. 

 

 

Please refer to diagram 3

 

1.       A Mixture of different quality of diamonds (JSI1, HVS2, FVS1 and DIF in a pot) for study purpose

2.       Filtered with different sizes 0.30ct, 0.50ct (small size diamonds), 1ct, 2ct, 3ct and 5ct diamonds (large size diamonds)

3.       From 2001 to 2012

 

Golden Rule No. 2: Smaller size diamond received much smaller growth in prices.  (in some cases 0.30ct actually fall in prices over the 10 years period).  Larger the size of a diamond, the larger the growth in its value. For example 5ct received a total of 61% growth in prices over the period of 10 years.  Better return than the US bond market. 

 

Please refer to diagram 4

 

1.       Quality and size mixture together can contribute and affect the pattern of price hike over the long period of time.

2.       Take for example FVS1 (medium high quality diamond) on different sizes over the 10 years period.

3.       Small diamond .30ct with a -23% (negative increase) and 5ct with 192% increase in value

 

 

Possible reasons:     A shift in the diamond demand (China factor, the F color crazy)

                                       Supply of rough diamond price and volume

However, the golden rule still applies: Bigger the sizes, better the increases

 

Other category:

a.        DIF 0.30ct -2% vs 5ct 172%

b.       HVS2 0.30ct -5% vs 5ct 132%

c.       JSI1 .30ct 0% vs 5ct 114%

 

Please refer to diagram 5

 

1.       DIF (high quality diamond) fetches a more stable price increases compared with the other category

2.       Annual % increases from 0.30ct -0.2% to 5ct. 17.2%

3.       Ordinary customer is difficult to invest in the bigger sizes due to the following reasons

a)         Potential higher purchasing prices

b)         Large amount of capital investment eg 5ct DIF can be as high as 1,000,000USD per stone

c)         Re-sale channel is rather limited

 

Please refer to diagram 6

 

1.       Low quality diamond (JSI1) increases in value overtime.  0.30ctJSI1 is the only category that receives 0% growth (0.30ct on other categories all reported negative growth). 

2.       Two golden rules applies but with small fluctuations between sizes.  0.30ct 0% growth vs 5ct 114% growth in price.

3.       Cost of the 5ct JSI1 nowadays can be around 100,000 USD per diamond (1/10 the price of the DIF 5ct)

4.       5ct diamond is too big for daily wear.  Cost of a 1ct JSI1 to be mounted in jewelry is around USD5800 per diamond.  From our study, 1ct JSI1’s return from 2001 to 2012 is 25%.  2ct is 53%.  3ct is 61%

 

Please refer to diagram 7

 

Factors to consider when purchasing a diamond

 

First of all, the 2 golden rules, Size and Quality

 

When it comes to reality, there are other factors

1.       For Investment purpose or for the love of jewelry

2.       Alternatives to diamond, eg fancy color diamond Pink diamond or Jade, Nephrite, gold silver etc

3.       Budget (knowing the 2 golden rules above, but would you be buying all the BIG diamond for your investment?

4.       Other factors to consider eg risk of value decreases, security, storage, insurance . etc

5.       Resell channel (difficult for ordinary consumers)

 

Some other notes:

Fancy color diamonds: Pink Diamonds
The pink diamond is the world's most rare and valuable diamond. The Argyle mine is the world's foremost source of unrivalled intense pink diamonds, producing 95% of the world's supply. However, an extremely small proportion of Argyle Diamonds production is Pink color, in fact less than one tenth of 1% is classified Pink.

Price of which has risen at a much more pace than the colorless (white) diamond. 

Cut of a diamond: Also significantly affects the price of a diamond.  Due to the limited supply of Ideal to excellent cut diamonds, also limited by the technical feasibility from the diamond cutters, compounded by the factor that consumer is more educated and demands a better quality diamonds, the price is increasing at an increasing rate compare to the regular cut (Good to Very Good) diamonds.   

Feel free to comment and forward the article, but please respect the intellectual property right by stating the source of this study

Thank you very much Philip Yau