降级,打击与经济危机
(2011-08-06 11:13:13)
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杂谈 |
评论:美国债务信用评级被标准普尔降级,说将来十年如果不削减四万亿美元的债务美国债信将就将失去三A评级,暗示了美国财政赤字全力扩张的周期即将被全面结束,这时本博想起我在微博中曾说过的话:黄金与石油都是人家的发财工具,美元真是一种鸦片,能让全球疯狂也能让全球灭亡,这一段时间被降级的不仅仅是美国,还有欧洲,全球各国都在一起拥入债务泡沫的泥石流之中,越来越多的国家将面临着严重的债务与信贷问题,超级通货膨胀,暴跌的本国货币,经济的长期萧条,世界各国的经济将越来越有庞氏经济骗局的特征,美国国债信用评级与美国国债上限争论不是什么特别值得注意的事,我们需要关注的是这一争论与信用评级下降背后形成的对全球资本流动信号的影响,在这个问题上那些除美国外的全球性大国几乎没有战略准备,我昨天讲战略是一个应急体系,如果对形势没有实质性的把握,应急体系有与没有都一样,有也是形同虚设,我们今天的经济问题看起来更可怕,我们不仅仅要注意到严重的西方债务洪峰,更可怕的是这股洪峰背后卷起那股超级龙卷风会在我们的金融市场上与整个经济形成海啸,更要注意世界正处在可怕债务火山爆发的初期,整个世界经济问题没有最坏只有更坏,危机将一波接一波,一波比一波可怕的进行五年左右的时间,欧元,日元,澳元,加元,卢比,雷亚尔,瑞士法郎,卢布,英镑,未来全部将成为一个个的活火山影响的货币,因为相当多的国际主要货币将在深刻的债务火山爆发中出现恶性病变与灾难式暴跌,十余年来全球经济无形中变成了以美国国债和美国财政赤字为基础的世界经济繁荣体系,这一体系的结束就将标志着全球货币与经济的周期性拐点到来,世界金融将经历剧烈的货币调整性灾难时期,也是重新整合债务体制,好让债务火山重新稳定的时期,这一时期从始至终都意味着剧烈的长期性的经济危机与全面萧条,还伴随着恶性循环的政治危机与地缘政治冲突,弄不好还有西方金融与权力集团的战略目标;世界新秩序.
美国国债被从
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Credit rating agency Standard & Poor's on Friday downgraded the credit rating of the United States, stripping the world's largest economy of its prized AAA status.
In July, S&P placed the United States' rating on "CreditWatch with negative implications" as the debt ceiling debate devolved into partisan bickering.
To avoid a downgrade, S&P said the United States needed to not only raise the debt ceiling, but also develop a "credible" plan to tackle the nation's long-term debt.
In its report Friday, S&P ruled that the U.S. fell short: "The downgrade reflects our opinion that the ... plan that Congress and the Administration recently agreed to falls short of what, in our view, would be necessary to stabilize the government's medium-term debt dynamics."
S&P also cited dysfunctional policymaking in Washington as a factor in the downgrade. "The political brinksmanship of recent months highlights what we see as America's governance and policymaking becoming less stable, less effective, and less predictable than what we previously believed."
A Treasury Department spokesman pushed back on the rating change, saying that S&P's analysis was flawed.
A source familiar with the matter said S&P initially miscalculated the growth trajectory of the nation's debt, and then went ahead with its downgrade anyway.
The source also said S&P didn't give enough credit for the debt-ceiling compromise, which paved the way for more than $2 trillion in spending cuts over the next 10 years.
However, one of S&P's explicit criticisms of the compromise was that it didn't address the biggest drivers of the nation's debt -- Social Security and Medicare -- and didn't allow for additional tax revenue.
John Chambers, Head of Sovereign Ratings for S&P, told CNN that though S&P didn't have a specific target in mind, the total debt reduction package was not sufficient. Chambers also noted that the plan did not take steps in the near term to boost economic growth.
Rating agencies -- S&P, Moody's and Fitch -- analyze risk and give debt a "grade" that reflects the borrower's ability to pay the underlying loans.
The safest bets are stamped AAA. That's where U.S. debt has stood for years. Moody's first assigned the United States a AAA rating in 1917. The country's new S&P rating is AA+ -- still strong, but not the highest.
The downgrade puts the U.S. debt rating on par with that of Belgium, but below countries like the United Kingdom and Australia.
In the days after lawmakers managed to strike a debt-ceiling deal, the two other major rating agencies have both said the deficit reduction actions taken by Congress were a step in the right direction.
On Tuesday, Moody's said the United States will keep its sterling AAA credit rating, but lowered its outlook on U.S. debt to "negative."
Even after a downgrade, the United States will likely still be able to pay its bills for years to come and remains a good credit risk.
A downgrade really just amounts to one agency's opinion. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke articulated that view in April when S&P placed the United States on credit watch. "S&P's action didn't really tell us anything," Bernanke said. "Everybody who reads the newspaper knows that the United States has a very serious long-term fiscal problem."
Investors have limited options for making safe investments, and Treasuries are effectively as liquid as cash. And other big countries have been downgraded and were still able to borrow at low rates.
At the same time, some experts warn that a downgrade could gum up the banking system and ripple out onto Main Street. Treasuries are used as collateral in many transactions between financial institutions and grease the skids of lending.
Shortly after the downgrade, the Federal Reserve, FDIC and other bank regulators moved to blunt the affect of the action on the banking system. In a joint release, the agencies said they would continue to treat Treasuries and other securities issued by government-sponsored entities (such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) the same as before they were downgraded. Treasuries are often used as collateral for short-term lending among banks and other financial institutions.
Consumers and investors could feel the impact of a downgrade. Interest rates on bonds could rise, and rates on mortgages and other types of loans along with them.
Government-backed agencies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may also be downgraded. It's also possible that some state and local governments could also face a downgrade.
And investment decisions would become complicated for large institutional investors that are required to hold highly-rated securities