加载中…
个人资料
  • 博客等级:
  • 博客积分:
  • 博客访问:
  • 关注人气:
  • 获赠金笔:0支
  • 赠出金笔:0支
  • 荣誉徽章:
正文 字体大小:

谁是中国最有价值的互联网公司?

(2006-08-02 11:05:00)
标签:

杂谈

转贴:谁是中国最有价值的互联网公司?

http://photocdn.sohu.com/20060804/Img244626329.jpg

中国概念股的PEG值

  投资者都喜欢高增长又价值合理的股票,PEG(市盈率除以盈利增长速度)是找出这种股票的一个很好的经验性工具。一个大众化的判断方法是看PEG是否远远小于1,如果小于1,则这意味着价值低估,如果远远大于一则意味着价值高估。

  在中国概念股中,第九城市的PEG最小,只有0.15,其次是和信超媒体(GIGM)的0.54。新浪最高,达到了3.38,e龙和携程紧随其后。

  计算PEG需要一些假设,最具争议性的是估算盈利增长速度。本文中的盈利增长速度采用分析师对2006和2007两年内增长速度的估算。虽然最好采用长期增长速度,但是绝大多数只估算一两年的盈利增长速度,对增长性股票,长期增长速度很难估算。本文中采用的股价是6月5的收盘价。(编译:搜狐IT Unifytruth)

以下图表为2006-2007年中国概念股市盈率和盈利增长

http://photocdn.sohu.com/20060804/Img244629064.JPG
http://photocdn.sohu.com/20060804/Img244629066.JPG
http://photocdn.sohu.com/20060804/Img244629071.JPG
http://photocdn.sohu.com/20060804/Img244629073.JPG
     来源:搜狐IT

原文:  Chinese Internet Stocks: In Search of Growth and Value (BIDU, CTRP, GIGM, JOBS, JRJC, LONG, NCTY, NTES, SINA, SNDA, SOHU)

Posted on Jun 6th with stocks: BIDU, CTRP, GIGM, JOBS, JRJC, LONG, NCTY, NTES, SINA, SNDA, SOHU 

http://seekingalpha.com/wp-content/seekingalpha/images/DanielVlad75px.jpg Daniel Vlad submits: Why choose between growth and value when you can have both?

Investors love high growth stocks with a reasonable valuation. The PEG Ratio, defined as the stock's P/E ratio divided by the growth rate of its earnings, is a good empirical tool for identifying undervalued growth stocks.

A popular rule of thumb is to consider a stock underpriced if its PEG falls much below 1, and overpriced if the PEG is much greater than 1.

PEG Results for China Internet Stocks

http://seekingalpha.com/wp-content/seekingalpha/images/ChinaInternet1.JPG

As you can see, NCTY sports the best PEG (0.15), followed by GIGM (0.54). At the other extreme, SINA has the worst PEG (3.38) followed by LONG and CTRP.

Calculating PEG requires some assumptions, the most controversial being the estimate of the earnings growth rate. For the sake of this analysis, the earnings growth rate was calculated as the two year average of the analyst consensus growth rate estimates for 2006 and 2007 (see methodology section below).

2006-2007 P/E Ratios and Earning Growth Rates

http://seekingalpha.com/wp-content/seekingalpha/images/ChinaInternet2.JPG

http://seekingalpha.com/wp-content/seekingalpha/images/ChinaInternet3.JPG

http://seekingalpha.com/wp-content/seekingalpha/images/ChinaInternet4.JPG

http://seekingalpha.com/wp-content/seekingalpha/images/ChinaInternet5.JPG

Methodology

When calculating PEG, we are faced with the following questions:

1. Which earnings to use?

For growth stocks, historical earnings are usually irrelevant. Investors generally buy these stocks for their future earnings. A good number to use is the current year (or next year) analyst consensus earnings estimate.

2. How to estimate earnings growth.

Ideally, you should use a long term growth estimate. However, most analysts provide estimates for only one or two years out. Longer term growth rates can be very difficult to estimate for growth stocks.

In this article we are using a 2 year compounded average growth rate derived from average analyst consensus earnings estimates for 2006 and 2007. Not quite a long term growth rate, but the best we can get.

Stock prices used in our calculations: Monday June 5, 2006 market closing prices.

Full Disclosure: The author owns NCTY shares and June Call Options.

Related: See all Seeking Alpha charts on Chinese stocks traded in the U.S.

(原文链接地址:http://china.seekingalpha.com/article/11645

0

阅读 收藏 喜欢 打印举报/Report
  

新浪BLOG意见反馈留言板 欢迎批评指正

新浪简介 | About Sina | 广告服务 | 联系我们 | 招聘信息 | 网站律师 | SINA English | 产品答疑

新浪公司 版权所有