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Mr. Trump,

Just to get the uncomfortable part of this chat out of the way first: as my handle suggests, you weren’t exactly my first choice for president. But my own personal preferences don’t change the facts, so please consider the following. You need to look after your own interests, and those interests favor stepping aside in the presidential race.

Right now, the Trump Train is on a path to destruction. I’m talking a freight-train-into-the-Grand-Canyon swan dive here. Yeah, a lot of it has to do with the biased media, massive corruption, and so forth. But life isn’t fair. Reality is reality. And the reality is that you seem on track to lose.

You’re already behind in the polls, and all these scandals are not going to help your outreach efforts. We can also assume that the media and the Clinton campaign are saving more for later. If there’s a path to the presidency in litigating a new sexual-contact scandal every week, I don’t see it. And gut-check time: Do you? Does Kellyanne Conway? Don’t cite Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2003 or Bill Clinton in 1992, either. (Those were different times with different candidates in different contexts.) Is there any way this election doesn’t turn into the ending of Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid?

Except you won’t be allowed to go out in a blaze of glory. You’ll be caricatured in the media as the American id, as the almost-tyrant, as perhaps the worst presidential candidate of all time. And if you lose big league, even many of your current supporters will turn on you. We saw how many people cheering Romney in October were then calling him a wimp by November 8. Imagine what they’ll say about you if you lose by a bigger margin than he did (and he ran against a much stronger opponent). This is Game of Thrones, and we all know how the losers of Westeros are treated.

Maybe you feel trapped, Mr. Trump, but you’re not. As your business career has shown, sometimes when things seem most dire, you can turn them around — if, that is, you renegotiate. You might have been crushed by the financial pressures of the early 90s, but, instead, you renegotiated and came out on top.

Now might be the time to have a political renegotiation. If you’re going to run and lose, you’re better off withdrawing now and throwing your support to whomever the RNC picks as your replacement. There are a yuge number of reasons why it’s to your advantage to do so, but here are some of them:

Withdrawing will preserve the Trump business brand. If you stay in the race, more and more of these tapes and accusations are going to come out. The media will toss more and more mud at you. You’re right: You’ve built a multi-billion-dollar brand. That’s a real accomplishment. But, if you become toxic, so does the Trump brand, and that has implications for you and your family.

If you withdraw, you could always present the argument that you could have won. Once you’ve lost, you’ve lost.

By withdrawing, you give the GOP a renewed chance of defeating Hillary Clinton. There’s maybe not a great chance, but there is still a chance. That will earn you a lot of cachet.

Speaking of that cachet, if forming Trump TV is some end goal, how do you think you’ll have more influence: with Hillary Clinton in the White House or a Republican? Hillary would be immune to the attacks of Trump TV; a Republican would tremble in fear of them.

In withdrawing, you frustrate your opponents. Note that most of your most bitter foes want you to stay on the ticket. They want you to be humiliated; they want to toss the Trump brand into the dustbin of history. You withdraw, and they’ll have to eat major crow.

By dropping out and supporting your replacement, all realistic scenarios come out Trump:

If your replacement wins by running on part of your platform, you’re certified as one of the great brand visionaries of all time.

If your replacement loses while running on part of your platform, there are a million other variables you can blame: the last-minute switch, media bias, the fact that you weren’t on the ticket, and so forth. But you alone couldn’t be blamed.

If your replacement loses while repudiating you and your platform, you can say he lost because he ran against you.

(If your replacement wins while repudiating you and your platform — well, this isn’t going to happen, because running against you would nuke him with the Republican base. This is a non-realistic scenario.)

If you stay in, you have a 1% chance coming out the victor; if you withdraw, there’s a 99% chance you walk away the winner.

Best of all, you wouldn’t have to frame stepping aside as quitting. It would be changing the battle plan. You could have a big speech attacking the media for all its lies. You could praise your movement and then say, “But Make America Great isn’t about one man. And this movement is too important to allow all the lies of the failing mainstream media to get in the way of stopping Crooked Hillary Clinton. I’m a fighter. Believe me. I’m a fighter. And this system is so rigged it’s disgusting. But now it’s time to change the battle plan.” You withdraw and pledge to support the RNC’s choice (though you could have some suggestions). You could still do giant rallies. You could still tweet. You could still be a superstar. You could also have a chance of being part of a winning team rather than captain of a losing one.

Just think: Instead of being Candidate Catastrophe, you could be the show-biz legend who upended the American electoral process, revitalized a major political party, drew headlines for a year, pulled the ultimate political shocker, and played presidential kingmaker.

Right now, you’re like someone buying lottery tickets in the hopes that winning “the big one” will save them from bankruptcy. But you’re Donald Trump, the master of the art of the deal. It’s time to renegotiate, change all the rules, and step aside.

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