加载中…Re：2012年酒类股的投资建议
(2012-01-31 09:03:16)
标签：
食品饮料白酒张裕a贵州茅台五粮液洋河股份股票 |
分类： 投资策略 |
转载自申银万国证券 童训
受二批商和消费者“买涨不买跌”心理以及“消费后周期性”、“今年春节特早”等因素的影响，茅台一批价由12/23的1970元逐渐回落至目前的1700元左右，五粮液一批价由12月上旬的950元逐渐回落至目前的870元左右，广东轩尼诗XO价格相比高点回落了约15%。食品饮料板块的行情启动时点预计在二季度，部分一季报不错的品种有望在四月份率先启动。从超额收益的角度而言，一月份的压力最大，然后慢慢会好些。从全年来看，有核心竞争力的企业仍将获取明显超额收益（这些公司只不过一季度痛苦一点而已）。短期张裕可考虑换一部分为洋河，张裕11-13年最新预测为3.482、4.352、5.353，增长28%、25%和23%，洋河11-13年预计4.455、7.492、11.186，增长82%、68%、49%。新年快乐！
换股建议：短期张裕可考虑换一部分为洋河，理由：1、张裕11-13年最新预测为3.482、4.352、5.353，增长28%、25%和23%，低于之前的预期（10年四季度基数很高），目前12PE23倍。2、洋河11-13年预计4.455、7.492、11.186，增长82%、68%、49%，目前12PE16.3倍。3、洋河和张裕的机制、治理结构一致，而营销能力洋河更强，目前市场占有率洋河更低，竞争环境洋河更有优势，洋河估值更便宜，成长性更好，洋河未来也会考虑做葡萄酒。4、张裕11年3月变相提价导致一季报和半年报基数很高，这会使得12年一季报增速较低，估计10-20%，而洋河11年一季度尚未100%持股双沟而漏出9%的利润，今年一季度不再漏出，所以洋河一季报有望增长60%以上。供您参考。
附表1：食品饮料公司盈利预测与估值跟踪表
|
公司简称 |
总股本 |
股价(1-20) |
|
EPS |
|
净利润增长 |
PE |
PEG |
评级 |
总市值（亿） |
12年超额收益 |
11年超额收益 |
10年超额收益 |
||||||||
|
1H11 |
3Q11 |
11E |
12E |
13E |
1H11 |
3Q11 |
11E |
12E |
13E |
11PE |
12PE |
13PE |
|||||||||
|
洋河股份 |
900 |
126.70 |
2.015 |
3.240 |
4.455 |
7.492 |
11.186 |
70.0% |
89.9% |
81.9% |
68.2% |
49.3% |
28.4 |
16.9 |
11.3 |
0.49 |
买入 |
1140 |
-5.4% |
44.3% |
104.5% |
|
贵州茅台 |
1038 |
185.97 |
4.727 |
6.328 |
8.116 |
12.322 |
17.060 |
58.3% |
57.4% |
66.8% |
51.8% |
38.4% |
22.9 |
15.1 |
10.9 |
0.51 |
买入 |
1931 |
-7.4% |
45.5% |
16.1% |
|
五粮液 |
3796 |
31.76 |
0.886 |
1.269 |
1.632 |
2.349 |
3.083 |
48.7% |
41.9% |
41.0% |
43.9% |
31.3% |
19.5 |
13.5 |
10.3 |
0.52 |
买入 |
1206 |
-6.8% |
24.2% |
16.9% |
|
泸州老窖 |
1394 |
36.76 |
1.011 |
1.440 |
2.115 |
3.016 |
3.668 |
35.3% |
27.0% |
33.7% |
42.6% |
21.6% |
17.4 |
12.2 |
10.0 |
0.55 |
买入 |
513 |
-5.1% |
21.8% |
14.2% |
|
伊利股份 |
1599 |
20.54 |
0.510 |
0.887 |
1.056 |
1.264 |
1.540 |
136.7% |
157.5% |
117.2% |
19.7% |
21.9% |
19.5 |
16.3 |
13.3 |
0.94 |
买入 |
328 |
-3.1% |
35.4% |
51.3% |
|
双汇发展 |
1199 |
67.00 |
0.125 |
0.459 |
0.941 |
3.310 |
4.303 |
-83.7% |
-63.1% |
-47.7% |
596.3% |
30.0% |
71.2 |
20.2 |
15.6 |
0.63 |
买入 |
803 |
-7.9% |
9.6% |
74.0% |
|
张裕A |
527 |
103.00 |
1.663 |
2.397 |
3.482 |
4.352 |
5.353 |
49.7% |
41.8% |
28.0% |
25.0% |
23.0% |
29.6 |
23.7 |
19.2 |
1.23 |
买入 |
543 |
-8.2% |
42.7% |
34.9% |
|
古井贡酒 |
252 |
77.12 |
1.144 |
1.392 |
2.385 |
3.786 |
5.388 |
168.1% |
145.4% |
91.4% |
58.8% |
42.3% |
32.3 |
20.4 |
14.3 |
0.64 |
买入 |
194 |
-13.9% |
36.3% |
144.6% |
|
山西汾酒 |
433 |
54.34 |
1.521 |
1.634 |
1.822 |
2.598 |
3.428 |
97.2% |
31.8% |
59.5% |
42.6% |
32.0% |
29.8 |
20.9 |
15.9 |
0.80 |
买入 |
235 |
-17.6% |
21.5% |
68.2% |
|
金种子酒 |
556 |
15.15 |
0.362 |
0.511 |
0.680 |
0.930 |
1.190 |
134.4% |
152.3% |
123.7% |
36.8% |
28.0% |
22.3 |
16.3 |
12.7 |
0.69 |
增持 |
84 |
-2.0% |
0.0% |
146.8% |
|
安琪酵母 |
330 |
25.83 |
0.527 |
0.751 |
1.070 |
1.420 |
1.820 |
26.6% |
20.2% |
23.8% |
32.7% |
28.2% |
24.1 |
18.2 |
14.2 |
0.79 |
增持 |
85 |
-15.8% |
-4.7% |
55.5% |
|
好想你 |
74 |
40.10 |
0.858 |
1.058 |
1.643 |
2.493 |
3.519 |
9.1% |
8.4% |
28.8% |
51.8% |
41.2% |
24.4 |
16.1 |
11.4 |
0.53 |
增持 |
30 |
-26.5% |
34.9% |
|
|
三全食品 |
201 |
25.91 |
0.419 |
0.450 |
0.832 |
1.098 |
1.385 |
50.2% |
42.4% |
35.5% |
32.0% |
26.2% |
31.1 |
23.6 |
18.7 |
1.07 |
增持 |
52 |
-21.9% |
13.2% |
80.8% |
|
青岛啤酒 |
1351 |
32.20 |
0.733 |
1.232 |
1.253 |
1.582 |
1.968 |
19.3% |
9.1% |
11.4% |
26.3% |
24.4% |
25.7 |
20.3 |
16.4 |
1.02 |
增持 |
435 |
-7.5% |
25.6% |
-0.5% |
|
承德露露 |
365 |
12.75 |
0.302 |
0.400 |
0.528 |
0.660 |
0.812 |
-10.7% |
-2.7% |
8.0% |
25.0% |
23.0% |
24.1 |
19.3 |
15.7 |
1.01 |
增持 |
47 |
-13.4% |
-3.8% |
64.4% |
|
洽洽食品 |
260 |
22.80 |
0.278 |
0.525 |
0.738 |
0.945 |
1.191 |
17.0% |
21.0% |
26.2% |
28.0% |
26.0% |
30.9 |
24.1 |
19.1 |
1.14 |
增持 |
59 |
-12.3% |
17.6% |
|
|
燕京啤酒 |
1210 |
13.45 |
0.363 |
0.648 |
0.725 |
0.877 |
1.071 |
10.2% |
10.2% |
14.0% |
21.0% |
22.0% |
18.5 |
15.3 |
12.6 |
0.86 |
增持 |
163 |
-3.9% |
0.4% |
8.8% |
|
酒鬼酒 |
325 |
23.79 |
0.187 |
0.265 |
0.600 |
0.893 |
1.231 |
23.4% |
46.3% |
145.5% |
48.7% |
37.9% |
39.6 |
26.7 |
19.3 |
0.92 |
增持 |
77 |
-2.5% |
36.5% |
37.6% |
|
老白干酒 |
140 |
20.33 |
0.179 |
0.294 |
0.490 |
0.690 |
0.910 |
40.0% |
44.4% |
64.7% |
40.8% |
31.9% |
41.5 |
29.5 |
22.3 |
1.14 |
增持 |
28 |
-6.0% |
-15.9% |
58.0% |
|
沱牌舍得 |
337 |
19.18 |
0.177 |
0.279 |
0.554 |
0.833 |
1.135 |
49.2% |
57.4% |
144.5% |
50.3% |
36.3% |
34.6 |
23.0 |
16.9 |
0.80 |
增持 |
65 |
11.7% |
7.1% |
35.8% |
|
水井坊 |
489 |
21.12 |
0.326 |
0.436 |
0.610 |
0.762 |
0.945 |
34.1% |
82.0% |
26.6% |
25.0% |
24.0% |
34.6 |
27.7 |
22.3 |
1.41 |
中性 |
103 |
-3.4% |
24.6% |
6.1% |
|
黑牛食品 |
240 |
14.06 |
0.199 |
0.296 |
0.413 |
0.525 |
0.677 |
18.3% |
16.0% |
22.6% |
27.0% |
29.0% |
34.0 |
26.8 |
20.8 |
1.21 |
中性 |
34 |
-10.1% |
-1.5% |
|
|
双塔食品 |
120 |
17.31 |
0.222 |
0.411 |
0.627 |
0.827 |
1.060 |
48.0% |
46.6% |
40.0% |
31.9% |
28.1% |
27.6 |
20.9 |
16.3 |
0.92 |
中性 |
21 |
-20.0% |
12.2% |
|
|
金枫酒业 |
439 |
9.13 |
0.168 |
0.203 |
0.314 |
0.362 |
0.416 |
-0.6% |
-7.6% |
5.0% |
15.0% |
15.0% |
29.0 |
25.2 |
22.0 |
1.94 |
中性 |
40 |
-6.2% |
1.6% |
-6.1% |
|
贝因美 |
426 |
21.58 |
0.457 |
0.634 |
1.060 |
1.188 |
1.330 |
1.5% |
7.0% |
7.0% |
12.0% |
12.0% |
20.4 |
18.2 |
16.2 |
1.70 |
中性 |
92 |
-13.7% |
-10.8% |
|
|
皇氏乳业 |
214 |
13.13 |
0.158 |
0.193 |
0.356 |
0.467 |
0.589 |
13.5% |
1.9% |
34.0% |
31.1% |
26.0% |
36.8 |
28.1 |
22.3 |
1.29 |
中性 |
28 |
-7.5% |
-15.9% |
|
|
光明乳业 |
1049 |
8.21 |
0.070 |
0.153 |
0.237 |
0.299 |
0.376 |
20.0% |
21.2% |
28.0% |
26.0% |
26.0% |
34.6 |
27.5 |
21.8 |
1.33 |
中性 |
86 |
-11.9% |
17.0% |
14.5% |
|
恒顺醋业 |
127 |
10.14 |
0.106 |
0.013 |
0.300 |
0.372 |
0.464 |
3.8% |
-89.2% |
19.8% |
24.0% |
24.7% |
33.8 |
27.3 |
21.9 |
1.39 |
中性 |
13 |
-1.5% |
-18.3% |
47.1% |
|
古越龙山 |
635 |
10.28 |
0.133 |
0.200 |
0.264 |
0.330 |
0.403 |
62.1% |
55.2% |
35.0% |
25.0% |
22.0% |
38.9 |
31.1 |
25.5 |
1.66 |
中性 |
65 |
-5.7% |
5.5% |
47.5% |
|
金字火腿 |
96 |
21.18 |
0.292 |
0.394 |
0.585 |
0.708 |
0.854 |
13.3% |
10.9% |
18.8% |
21.0% |
20.6% |
36.2 |
29.9 |
24.8 |
1.74 |
中性 |
20 |
-5.0% |
-10.4% |
|
|
佳隆股份 |
187 |
8.68 |
0.143 |
0.187 |
0.340 |
0.391 |
0.453 |
2.0% |
-8.9% |
10.0% |
15.0% |
16.0% |
25.5 |
22.2 |
19.1 |
1.65 |
中性 |
16 |
-2.6% |
-22.0% |
|
|
涪陵榨菜 |
155 |
14.90 |
0.246 |
0.431 |
0.453 |
0.566 |
0.702 |
23.6% |
28.9% |
26.0% |
25.0% |
24.0% |
32.9 |
26.3 |
21.2 |
1.34 |
中性 |
23 |
-2.9% |
-16.0% |
|
|
百润股份 |
80 |
18.08 |
0.257 |
0.416 |
0.647 |
0.831 |
1.047 |
17.2% |
10.5% |
20.5% |
28.6% |
25.9% |
28.0 |
21.7 |
17.3 |
1.03 |
中性 |
14 |
-7.1% |
-11.2% |
|
|
青青稞酒 |
450 |
16.50 |
0.249 |
0.365 |
0.456 |
0.659 |
0.900 |
|
58.9% |
51.5% |
44.3% |
36.7% |
36.2 |
25.1 |
18.3 |
0.89 |
中性 |
74 |
-10.8% |
-11.9% |
|
|
加加食品 |
160 |
19.79 |
0.352 |
0.475 |
0.958 |
1.256 |
1.565 |
|
18.6% |
18.0% |
31.1% |
24.6% |
20.7 |
15.8 |
12.6 |
0.74 |
中性 |
32 |
-18.4% |
|
|
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
以上分析过程详实，但投资方法和策略上充分体现“市场分析师”和“企业分析师”的本质区别。
市场分析师看中短期利益，迎合市场的需求，无可厚非，毕竟是生存之法。
企业分析师看中内在价值和体系指标，以3-5年的时间和空间来看问题。
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