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Fun With Flows - Year of the Rat Kicks Off With US$461m Asian Fund Outfl

(2008-02-19 10:14:20)
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杂谈

 

 

Key points from today's note include:

* A small pickup in outflows - EPFR Global reported that net outflows from offshore Asian equity funds rose 6% WoW to US$461m in the week ended February 13. This takes total net redemptions YTD to US$8.7b compared with net inflows of US$16.4b for 2007 as a whole.

* 94% of the new money invested in Asia in 2H07 is now under water - Stripping out the weeks of outflows in this period, US$27.4b of fresh money was invested in Asian funds. US$25.8b of this is now suffering from a loss of 12% on average, or US$3.1b. AUM of these Asian funds shrank 25% from US$225b at the peak at the end of October to the current US$169b. Last time when we saw this happen was in the 2001 global growth slowdown.

* Foreign investors still prefer Malaysia, Hong Kong and Taiwan equity funds - According to EPFR, net inflows to these funds were US$288m over the past three weeks versus redemptions of US$2.7b from other Asian funds. Not surprisingly, India and China country funds were the top two of the outflow list.

* Don't expect global funds to help revive Asian markets - YTD net redemptions from GEM funds and International funds total US$9.8b. In 2001, total net outflows from these two fund groups were US$7b, or 3% of their asset size. Today it's 1% thus far.

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