FUTURISM, the study of the future with a view toward anticipating, preparing for, and influencing future events. Futurism seeks to develop better ways of thinking about the future. It promotes the examination of alternative ways and means of dealing with a wide variety of imaginable futures. It is particularly concerned with helping individuals develop knowledge, attitudes, and skills that can help them deal with the rapid changes taking place in a highly complex technological society. Another major goal is to promote a global orientation based on the belief that we live in a finite and interdependent world that requires conservation, cooperation, and peace if human civilization is to last.

未来主义（研究），以预期、准备和影响未来事件的观点，对未来的研究。未来主义试图寻求发展更好的思考未来的那些方法。它促进了处理各种各样可想象未来的方法和手段的研究。它尤其关注帮助个人发展知识、态度和技能，而它们可以帮助他们在高度复杂的技术社会中应对发生的迅速变化。另一个主要目标就是，基于我们都生活在一个有限和相互依存的世界的信念来促进一个全球目标，如果人类文明要延续下去，那么就需要保护、合作与和平。

Methodology. Futurism is based on the belief that human activity have consequences whose effects are increasingly long range and widespread. In order to forecast these consequences, it is important to understand the relationships that exist within and among the complex systems of the natural and social worlds.

一套方法。未来主义是基于这种信念，即人类活动产生的后果，其影响越来越深远，范围越来越广泛。为了预测这些后果，重要的是要理解存在于自然界和社会世界复杂系统之中的关系。

To make forecasts, futurists use a variety of methods ranging from highly sophisticated computer analysis to simple, informed hunches. These methods are shared with other approaches to the study of the future, such as futuristics and futurology. They are grounded in concepts from statistics, and from the methodologies of the natural, and social sciences. In the final analysis, the application of all of these methods is aimed at assisting in intelligent decision making.

为了进行预测，未来学家使用了从高度复杂的计算机分析到简单的，有根据直觉的各种方法。这些方法与研究未来的其它方法是共享的，比如未来研究和未来学。它们以统计学和自然科学的方法论以及社会学的概念为基础。总而言之，所有这些方法的应用目的是协助做出明智的决定。

There are two main types of forecasts. Exploratory forecasting is concerned with probable and plausible futures and begins with events or circumstances in the present, examines any relevant historical data, and projects likely alternative outcomes of the initial events and circumstances. Normative forecasting is concerned with the achievement of desirable or preferred future events and conditions. After imagining some desired or preferred future, one reasons backward to the decisions that must be made in order to achieve the postulated future.

预测主要有两种类型。探索性预测涉及的是很可能发生的和合理的未来，从当前的事件或环境开始，检查任何相关的历史数据，以及对最初的事件和环境推算出可能替代的结果。规范化预测关注的是实现令人向往的或更好的未来事件和条件。在想象一些希望的实现或更好的未来后，人们可逆向推理，为实现假设的未来必须做出决定。

The more commonly used techniques for forecasting the future include the following. Trend extrapolation forecasting assumes that events or developments that have occurred in the past will continue much the same in the future. Delphi forecasting involves collecting and refining the predictions of experts in a particular field (for example, petroleum production and marketing) in order to arrive at a consensus by experts concerning the course of future developments in that field (for example, that there will be a shortage or surplus of oil in the year 2000). Scenario writing is a popular technique for visualizing possible future conditions. The scenario is a detailed written description of a posited future. In this technique, all relevant variables in the scenario are cross-checked for their interrelationships and likely effects on each other. Simulation forecasting involves the creation of models that simulate key features of existing or possible future conditions and then studies the behavior of the models to arrive at future outcomes. Such simulations often involve the use of computers to analyze data.

预测未来更常用的方法包括以下几种。趋势外推预测假设，即过去发生的事件或发展在未来会大致保持不变。德尔菲预测包括收集和提炼在特定领域专家的预测（例如，石油生产和销售）以达成专家关注的该领域未来发展进程的共识（例如，2000年石油将会短缺或过剩）。情节推演法是一种可视化未来可能条件的流行方法。该场景是一种对假定未来的详细书面描述。在这种方法中，场景中的所有相关变量都进行了它们相互关系的反复核对和可能的相互影响。模拟预测涉及模型的创建，即模拟现存的或可能的未来条件的关键特征，然后研究模型的行为来达成未来的结果。这种模拟常常涉及使用计算机来分析数据。

Typical Forecasts. Futurists do not try to make unqualified predictions. Rather, they forecast the likelihood or probability that certain events or circumstances will occur in the future. Virtually all major corporations and many government bodies in the United States and other technologically developed nations employ individuals who, whether or not they are officially designated as futurists, make forecasts. Many of the forecasts are highly specific, but others seek to discern broad social or technological trends.

典型预测。未来学家并不试图进行无根据的预测。相反，他们会预测未来会发生的某些事件或状况的可能性或概率。事实上，在美国所有的大公司和许多的政府机构，以及其它在技术上发达国家雇用的个人，无论他们是否被官方指定为未来学家，都会进行预测。许多预测都非常具体，但另外一些人却试图辨别出广泛社会或技术的趋势。

The most general type of forecast related to the future of the technologically developed countries deals with the ongoing transformation to a postindustrial society. This transformation began in the decade of the 1950’s and is projected to continue over several decades. Perhaps the best-known work on the subject is Daniel Bell’s The Coming of Post-Industrial Society (1972). According to Bell, postindustrial society will be marked by greatly increased emphasis on research, highly advanced technology, and information acquisition and processing, with a concomitant increase in professional and service occupations and in the general educational level.

最一般的预测类型与在技术上发达国家应对向后工业社会持续转型的未来有关。这种转型始于20世纪50年代的十年，并且预计会持续几十年。关于这个话题，也许最著名的作品是丹尼尔·贝尔的《后工业社会的来临》（1972年）。根据贝尔的说法，后工业社会将以极大地增强对研究的重视、高度先进的技术和信息获取与处理为标志，伴随而来的是专业与服务行业以及普通教育水平的增加。

Postindustrial society is also the subject of Alvin Toffler’s The Third Wave (1980), which uses the metaphor of colliding waves of change. The first wave was the development of industry; and the third, or postindustrial, wave is the development of a society based largely on computers and related technology. The implications of the change to a postindustrial society reach all aspects of life and will transform basic institutions and behavior patterns.

后工业社会也是阿尔温·托夫勒《第三次浪潮》（1980年）的主题，它使用变化的碰撞浪潮的隐喻。第一次浪潮是工业的发展；而第三次浪潮，或后工业时代，浪潮是一个社会在很大程度上基于计算机和相关技术的发展。这种变化对后工业社会的蕴涵触及到生活的各个方面，并且会改变基本制度和行为模式。

History.  Humans have always shown concern about the future. All early civilizations sought to develop systematic means for forecasting future developments, especially in regard to weather and other natural phenomena. Throughout history, oracles, soothsayers, and astrologers have attempted to predict future events.

历史。人类总是表现出对未来的担忧。所有早期文明都试图为预测未来发展开发系统的手段，尤其是在天气和其它自然现象方面。在整个历史上，预言、算命者以及占星家都曾试图预测未来的事件。

Contemporary futurism largely began in Europe and the United States after World War II. In the 1940’s the German futurist Ossip Flechtheim coined the term “futurology” to apply to projections and planning designed to encourage societies to become more future oriented. Bertrand de Jouvenal of France used the term “futuribles” to designate those things that can be deduced by the mind but do not yet exist. Fred Polak, a Dutch scholar, used the term “prognostics” to refer to a set of mental attitudes that focus on possible and desirable futures. Polak was particularly interested in the ability of people to form “images of the future.”

当代的未来主义很大程度上始于二战后的欧洲和美国。在20世纪40年代，德国的未来学家奥希普·弗莱希特海姆创造了“未来学”这个词，用于预测和规划，旨在鼓励社会变得更加面向未来。法国的伯特兰·德·茹弗纳尔使用了“未来”一词，指那些可由心灵推理，但并不存在的东西。弗雷德·波拉克，一位荷兰学者，使用过“预测”一词，指一套专注于可能的和理想未来的心理状态。波拉克对人们形成“未来想象”的能力特别感谢兴趣。

The study of futurism in the United States, a more recent development than its European counterpart, emerged from a number of “think tanks” such as the RAND Corporation, the Hudson Institute, and the Stanford Research Institute. It has been advanced and popularized by the writings of such investigators as Herman Kahn, Willis Harman, Robert Theobald, and others in addition to Bell and Toffler. The World Future Society is largely responsible for the rise of popular participation in the futures movement in North America. Under its sponsorship the First Global Conference of the Future was held in Toronto, Canada, in July 1980, and was attended by over 6,000 individuals.

美国对未来的研究相比它的欧洲同行要更晚，是从一些“智库”中产生的，比如兰德公司，哈得逊研究所以及斯坦福研究院。它是由像赫尔曼·卡恩、威利斯·哈曼、罗伯特·西奥博尔德这样的研究者，以及除了贝尔和托夫勒以外的其他人的著作发展和推广起来的。世界未来学会在很大程度上对北美期货运动中民众参与的兴起负有责任。在其赞助下，第一届全球未来会议于1980年7月在加拿大多伦多举行，参会者超过6000人。

                                        ROBERT M. FITCH

                                        University of Iowa

                                            罗伯特·M. 菲奇

                                              爱荷华大学

                                            2023年9月9日译

（译者注：该词条位列《大美百科全书》1985年版，第12卷，第209页至210页）