金友上周又遭打击!黄金的一种中期波浪数法:仅做激发思考的参考.技术分析仅仅是风向标，而非水晶球．（Technical analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball.）

http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y275/Lanahans/GoldLT12-5-08.jpg

短期:

http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y275/Lanahans/goldST12-5-08.jpg

点数图显示:可能http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$gold,pltad[pa][da][f!3!!]&pref=G&pnf=y

进一步下跌.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$usd,pltad[pa][da][f!3!!]&pref=G&pnf=y

美元指数窄幅波动.

长期看，这波调整是对１９８０年高点的回抽．犹如１９７８年突破１９７４年高点（２００）的回抽，图中红圈处．

http://goldmoney.com/en/images/commentary-images/commentary-charts/alert_2008-12-01.gif 

黄金的基本面依然未变:尽管CPI有所回落,实际利率仍为负值(-2%),利多金价.下面2图的蓝色线为实际利率,黑色线为一年期国债走市.红线为金价.

白线为CPI:

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hamilton/hamilton120508/Zeal120508A.gif

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hamilton/hamilton120508/Zeal120508B.gif