加载中…2007年10月市场是聪明的（招行及茅台估值）
(2010-04-13 10:41:41)
标签：
杂谈 |
分类： 投资日记 |
招商银行：
| 2009 | 17,300,000,000.00 | 2020年净利润折现 | |
| 2010 | 19,030,000,000.00 | 19,027,863,280.55 | |
| 2011 | 20,933,000,000.00 | ||
| 2012 | 23,026,300,000.00 | ||
| 2013 | 25,328,930,000.00 | ||
| 2014 | 27,861,823,000.00 | ||
| 2015 | 30,648,005,300.00 | ||
| 2016 | 33,712,805,830.00 | ||
| 2017 | 37,084,086,413.00 | ||
| 2018 | 40,792,495,054.30 | ||
| 2019 | 44,871,744,559.73 | ||
| 2020 | 49,358,919,015.70 | 2020年以后永续折现 | |
| 705,127,414,510.04 | |||
| 总价值 | 每股内在价值 | ||
| 724,155,277,790.60 | 33.52元 |
2007年股价历史最高为32.3元。
贵州茅台：
| 2019年净利润折现值 | |||
| 2009 | ￥5,563,458,277 | ￥5,562,833,603 | |
| 2010 | ￥6,119,804,105 | ||
| 2011 | ￥6,731,784,515 | ||
| 2012 | ￥7,404,962,967 | ||
| 2013 | ￥8,145,459,263 | ||
| 2014 | ￥8,960,005,190 | ||
| 2015 | ￥9,856,005,709 | ||
| 2016 | ￥10,841,606,280 | ||
| 2017 | ￥11,925,766,908 | ||
| 2018 | ￥13,118,343,598 | ||
| 2019 | ￥14,430,177,958 | 2019年后永续折现值 | |
| ￥206,145,399,401.45 | |||
| 合计内在价值 | |||
| ￥211,708,233,004.30 | 每股224元 |
贵州茅台2007年股价最高为228.52元。
其中折现率用10%，永续增长按3%，10年期间净利润增速都按10%增长。
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