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中美金融战进入白热化？
(2007-10-27 11:16:44)
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军事/谈兵 |
China threatens 'nuclear option' of dollar sales
The Chinese government has begun a concerted campaign of economic threats against the United States, hinting that it may liquidate its vast holding of US treasuries if Washington imposes trade sanctions to force a yuan revaluation.
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Blog - Dollar to collapse?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/graphics/2007/08/07/bcnchina107a.jpg Fistful of dollars - China's trade surplus reached $26.9bn in June
Two officials at leading Communist Party bodies have given interviews in recent days warning - for the first time - that Beijing may use its $1.33 trillion (£658bn) of foreign reserves as a political weapon to counter pressure from the US Congress.
Shifts in Chinese policy are often announced through key think tanks and academies.
Described as China's "nuclear option" in the state media, such action could trigger a dollar crash at a time when the US currency is already breaking down through historic support levels.
It would also cause a spike in US bond yields, hammering the US housing market and perhaps tipping the economy into recession. It is estimated that China holds over $900bn in a mix of US bonds.
Xia Bin, finance chief at the Development Research Centre (which has cabinet rank), kicked off what now appears to be government policy with a comment last week that Beijing's foreign reserves should be used as a "bargaining chip" in talks with the US.
"Of course, China doesn't want any undesirable phenomenon in the global financial order," he added.
He Fan, an official at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, went even further today, letting it be known that Beijing had the power to set off a dollar collapse if it choose to do so.
"China has accumulated a large sum of US dollars. Such a big sum, of which a considerable portion is in US treasury bonds, contributes a great deal to maintaining the position of the dollar as a reserve currency. Russia, Switzerland, and several other countries have reduced the their dollar holdings.
"China is unlikely to follow suit as long as the yuan's exchange rate is stable against the dollar. The Chinese central bank will be forced to sell dollars once the yuan appreciated dramatically, which might lead to a mass depreciation of the dollar," he told China Daily.
The threats play into the presidential electoral campaign of Hillary Clinton, who has called for restrictive legislation to prevent America being "held hostage to economic decicions being made in Beijing, Shanghai, or Tokyo".
She said foreign control over 44pc of the US national debt had left America acutely vulnerable.
Simon Derrick, a currency strategist at the Bank of New York Mellon, said the comments were a message to the US Senate as Capitol Hill prepares legislation for the Autumn session.
"The words are alarming and unambiguous. This carries a clear political threat and could have very serious consequences at a time when the credit markets are already afraid of contagion from the subprime troubles," he said.
A bill drafted by a group of US senators, and backed by the Senate Finance Committee, calls for trade tariffs against Chinese goods as retaliation for alleged currency manipulation.
The yuan has appreciated 9pc against the dollar over the last two years under a crawling peg but it has failed to halt the rise of China's trade surplus, which reached $26.9bn in June.
Henry Paulson, the US Tresury Secretary, said any such sanctions would undermine American authority and "could trigger a global cycle of protectionist legislation".
Mr Paulson is a China expert from his days as head of Goldman Sachs. He has opted for a softer form of diplomacy, but appeared to win few concession from Beijing on a unscheduled trip to China last week aimed at calming the waters.
Japan and China lead flight from the dollar
Japan and China led a record withdrawl of foreign funds from the United States in August, heightening fears of a fresh slide in the dollar and a spike in US bond yields.
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Data from the US Treasury showed outflows of
$163bn (£80bn) from all forms of US
investments. "These numbers are absolutely stunning," said Marc
Ostwald, an economist at Insinger de Beaufort.
Asian investors dumped $52bn worth of US Treasury bonds
alone, led by Japan ($23bn), China ($14.2bn) and Taiwan
($5bn). It is the first time since 1998 that foreigners
have, on balance, sold Treasuries.
Mr Ostwald warned that US bond yields could start to rise again unless the outflows reverse quickly. "Woe betide US Treasuries if inflation does not remain benign," he said.
The release comes a day after the IMF warned that the dollar was still overvalued and likely to face "some depreciation in the medium term".
The dollar's short-lived rally over recent days stopped abruptly on the data, increasing pressure on US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson to shore up Washington's "strong dollar" rhetoric at the G7 summit this week.
The Greenback has already fallen below parity against the Canadian Loonie for the first time since 1976 and has touched record lows against a global basket. It closed at $2.032 against the pound.
David Woo, an analyst at Barclays Capital, said Washington was happy to see the dollar slide. "They don't care so long as the fall is not disorderly. They see it as a way of correcting the deficit. " he said.
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Mr Woo said a chunk of the August outflows may have come from foreigners borrowing in the US during the liquidity crunch to meet needs in euros. "We think it may be a one-off," he said.
The US requires $70bn a month in capital inflows to cover its current account deficit, but the key sources of finance are drying up one by one.
BNP Paribas said America has relied on "hot money" from abroad to cover 25pc to 30pc of the US short-term credit and commercial paper market over the last two years.
This flow is now in danger after the seizure in parts of the market over the summer and after the Federal Reserve's half point rate cut, which has shaved the US yield advantage over other countries.
Ian Stannard, a Paribas currency analyst, said the data was "extremely negative" for the dollar. "It exceeds the worst fears. It is not just foreigners who are selling US assets. Americans are turning their back as well," he said.
Central banks in Singapore, Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam have all begun to cut purchases of US bonds, or signalled an intent to do so. In effect, they are giving up trying to hold down their currencies because the policy is starting to set off inflation.
The Treasury data would have been even worse if it had not been for $60bn of inflows from hedge funds based in Britain and the Caymans, which needed to cover US positions at the height of the credit crunch.
国内相关文章：http://guancha.gmw.cn/content/2007-08/15/content_655714.htm
有媒体认为，夏斌等人的建议相当于在中美经贸战中使用“经济核武器”（在We grow up by surviving crises一文中，作者将其比喻为“确保相互摧毁”（MAD）的经济战略）。一些媒体认为，目前美国经济，特别是金融和房地产表现欠佳，美元汇率持续下降，如果中国真的抛售部分美元资产，势必对已经处于弱势的美元造成进一步的打击，甚至可能引发美元的崩盘。
本人认为：中国外汇储备极其不合理的状况导致了今天的人民币VS美圆的战争，这是政治因素以外的纯粹金融领域问题，我国正在积极调整外汇储备结构，在未来5-10年时间内，手中大量美金肯定要兑换成其他形式的储备，是偶然的巧合还是若干年前刻意之为，不得而知；总之，美国主导世界经济的局面能否被人民币中国的崛起所撼动，不仅仅关乎美国经济同样也必将严重影响我国未来经济，人民币PK美圆是历史的必然，人民币通过这场较量中脱颖而出之日也就是中国真正崛起之时。人民币迟早要成为世界主要货币，中国迟早要成为世界经济主导力量。
希望人民币稳健走出低谷，占领国际货币制高点。
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