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上合组织拒绝支持俄罗斯

(2008-08-29 03:49:06)
标签:

上合组织

俄罗斯

格鲁吉亚

美国

杂谈

美国这些日子以来第一次露出了笑脸。

王小东

 

Security Group Refuses to Back Russia’s Actions

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2008/08/28/world/sco_600.1.jpg
Pool photo by Mikhail Klimentyev

Dmitri A. Medvedev, second from right, arrived for the annual summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, with hopes that the six-member group would provide the strong international backing the Kremlin has lacked after its incursion into Georgia.

 

By DAVID L. STERN

Published: August 28, 2008

DUSHANBE, Tajikistan — Russia suffered a significant setback here on Thursday, as members of a regional security group in which the Kremlin plays an important role offered little support for Moscow’s military action in Georgia.

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Dmitri A. Medvedev, the Russian president, arrived in this sleepy Central Asian capital for the annual summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, with hopes that the six-member group would provide the strong international backing the Kremlin has so far lacked after its incursion into Georgia. Moscow has urged other nations to follow its lead and recognize Georgia’s breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states.

Instead, the organization, which also includes China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, took a neutral stance, urging Russia and Georgia to resolve their differences peacefully.

“The S.C.O. states express grave concern in connection with the recent tensions around the South Ossetia issue and urge the sides to solve existing problems peacefully, through dialogue, and to make efforts facilitating reconciliation and talks,” the summit’s final joint declaration said, using the initials of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

Mr. Medvedev, attending his first major diplomatic event since the conflict in Georgia, put a positive spin on proceedings, saying that the organization had in fact supported Russia in its actions and sent a “strong signal.”

“I am sure that the united position of the S.C.O. member states will have international resonance,” the Russian leader said, adding: “It is well known who helped Georgian authorities and even encouraged them in pursuit of their own mercenary aims.”

He was apparently referring to the United States, which has backed Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili.

The Shanghai group’s leaders did endorse some aspect of Russia’s involvement in the Caucasus, saying it approved of “the active role of Russia in assisting in peace and cooperation in the region.” However, they also underscored the importance of territorial integrity — a statement that could be applied to Georgia’s struggle with its breakaway regions.

The presidents reaffirmed their commitment to “efforts aimed at preserving the unity of a state and its territorial integrity,” they said in their statement.

The lack of consensus over Russia’s role in Georgia exposes a crucial divergence between China and Russia. The two powers, which have both enjoyed strong economic growth under authoritarian leadership, have also cooperated closely on international issues in recent years and have on occasion joined forces to limit the influence of the United States in world affairs.

But China split with the Soviet Union during the cold war over control of international Communism, and the two fought a border war in 1969. Beijing, which has often stressed that its own emergence as a great power should not be viewed as posing a threat to neighbors or the outside world, shows few signs of encouraging Russia to project military power abroad.

Its foreign policy continues to emphasize inviolable sovereignty of nation states and it often condemns overseas military actions by the United States. On Wednesday, Beijing expressed “concern” over Russia’s actions in Georgia, which Russia has argued were essential to prevent Georgian aggression against South Ossetia.

The Shanghai organization was created seven years ago to foster cooperation and combat terrorism. It has mostly focused on delineating borders and increasing dialogue between China and the former Soviet republics, which China sees as helpful in its attempts to combat a separatist insurgency among Uighur Muslims in its western region of Xinjiang.

The group conducts joint military exercises, and analysts say that it has aspirations to become more substantive, possibly even becoming a counterweight to NATO. But so far it has not demonstrated the tight military or political coordination of NATO.

The majority of its joint decisions remain on paper, partly because of continuing divisions among its members. In addition to the Russia-China divide, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, as well as Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, have difficulty reaching consensus on many issues.

In 2005, the Shanghai group took an unexpectedly sharp position against the United States. Its members called for a time-table for American forces to vacate Central Asian bases that the Pentagon has used for operations in nearby Afghanistan.

Before the Georgian conflict, Russia’s star was steadily rising in the region. The Kremlin has used a combination of hardball politics and multi-million dollar gas agreements with local governments to cement its position.

Last year, Vladimir V. Putin, Russia’s president at the time and now its prime minister, lashed out at what he described as Washington’s unilateral foreign policy, while Iran’s president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose country holds observer status in the group, criticized American plans for a missile defense shield in eastern Europe.

But this year, the group’s internal divisions were clearly on display.

Not one head of state mentioned the conflict in Georgia in his prepared remarks, indicating a general discomfort with the issue. Moreover, though South Ossetia was mentioned in the joint declaration, it was absent from the final communiqué.

Although the Central Asia states of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan all fall within what Moscow considers its sphere of influence, and all seem to accept Russian hegemony to a certain degree, they nevertheless strive to limit Moscow’s reach and preserve their own independence of action.

Kazakhstan in particular is enjoying the increased political and economic might that has accompanied its emergence as a hydrocarbon superpower — the country is soon to become one of the world’s top ten oil exporters. President Nursultan Nazarbayev has craftily balanced his foreign policy interests among various competing powers and is loath to take clear sides in a dispute that pits the United States against Russia.

“It would have been very important to have gotten direct support from these states, which very closely work and depend on Russia, but Moscow didn’t get any support aside from general statements,” said Nikolay Petrov, a post-Soviet analyst with the Carnegie Center in Moscow. He added that the Central Asian states’ refusal to overtly back Moscow is an indication of “limits of Russia’s influence.”

In the tug-of-war between Russia’s desire to secure international backing, and China’s fear of encouraging any separatist movements, the Chinese position apparently won out. Beijing is concerned not only about Xinjiang, but also an independence movement in Taiwan, which it claims as part of its territory, and the claims for greater autonomy in Tibet.

“Even if it is eager to support Russia in its conflict with the West — and this is not clear — China is not eager to somehow put at risk its own problems with succession and regions,” said Mr. Petrov.

 

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