1 Y(yesterday) = SCB(spike and channel bottom) in area of last Y(yesterday) H(high) in cash index. 4 hour TR(trading range). W(wedge) 70 78 but bear body. Wait.
2 DT(double top) 81 but bottom of TR(trading range) so LP(low probability) S(short).
3 Big bear bar but need FT(follow through) since most TR(trading range) BO(breakout) F(fail, failure), ESP(especially) bear BO(breakout) in bull trend.
4 Big bull IB(inside bar), W(wedge) 70 78, DB(double bottom) 28 bottom off channel. Ok B(buy) for scalp and swing.
7 RB(reversal bar) but bull body, 17t F(fail, failure). ET(expanding triangle) 41 67, POSS(possible) HOD(high of the day). Ok swingS(short), less certain scalp.
8 Big bear bar after ET(expanding triangle). PROB(probably) becoming AIS(always in short) but need FT(follow through).
9 Doji FT(follow through) so unclear. Bulls see as BP(breakout pullback) B(buy), so ok swing B(buy) but less certain scalp. Bubd soTR(trading range) most likely. Bears see F(fail, failure) bull BO(breakout) and will S(short) above. Since bull case is reasonable, bears might not take 1st entry S(short) and instead S(short) 1 PT(profit target) above 9 for scalp.
13 Bull BO(breakout) but last several bull bos FD(failed) 23 41 57 (显然应该是67)7 so LR(lower) P(probability). Swing bulls might use tight stop below 12H(high), but since still in TR(trading range), not HP(high probability) swing B(buy).
14 Doji FT(follow through). Still AIL(always in long) and weak S(short) SB(signal bar) so BRS(buyers) below, but top of TR(trading range) and weak B(buy) SB(signal bar) so might be SRS(sellers) above. Bulls have better argument, since 4-23 Y(yesterday) was so strong.NHEP(not high enough probability) for scalp with stop entry up or down.
15 1BFF(one bar final flag), ET(expanding triangle) 2nd entry, but too many bull bars and bears FD(failed) twice 3 8, so odds favor up and not strong bear SB(signal bar). PROB(probably) BRS(buyers) below around MA(moving average).
17 BP(breakout pullback) B(buy) but bear body at top of TR(trading range). Even tho AIL(always in long), HR(higher) P(probability) if wait for 2nd enty like TRI(possible triangle) or H2(2 legged pullback in a bull move) at MA(moving average), ESP(especially) if get bull SB(signal bar).
18 PB(pullback) B(buy), 2BR(two bar revresal), but top of TR(trading range) so more likely SRS(sellers) above.
21 IOI(outside bar surrounded by inside bars) bear body but 1t body. PROB(probably) SRS(sellers) above and BRS(buyers) below sinceTTR(tight trading range) since 14.
23 Small BO(breakout) bar. Don’t B(buy) top of TR(trading range) unless big BO(breakout).
24 2BR(two bar revresal) but 2t tail. Ok swing S(short), but also ok to hold swing B(buy). P(probability) about 50% so swing bulls and bears are ok if manage correctly and go for reward at least twice as big as risk. Most traders should only scalp in TR(trading range), or swing S(short) when near top.
26 Ioii, top of TR(trading range), ok swing S(short) but NHEP(not high enough probability) for scalp since TR(trading range) since 14. Some traders will convert swing into scalp if not strong move down.
29 1BFF(one bar final flag) but 6 bar bear MC(microchannel) in TR(trading range) so SRS(sellers) above.
32 2BR(two bar revresal), STF(smaller time frame) LH(lower high) MTR(major trend reversal). Most important feature is TTR(tight trading range) since 14 and most traders should not trade since most traders should enter on stops and stop entries in ttrs are usually losers.
36 TRI(possible triangle) 18 29 or 22 29, MAG(moving average gap bar), but doji so better to wait.
37 LH(lower high) at bottom of TR(trading range), doji, BRS(buyers) below.
38 MDB(micro double bottom), 2nd entry B(buy), bull body, but 2t worse than 1st entry so LR(lower) P(probability). Most traders should wait.
41 Rt bear flag 31, LH(lower high) MTR(major trend reversal) so SRS(sellers) here for swing and scalp, risking to above 31.
45 DB(double bottom) PB(pullback), H2(2 legged pullback in a bull move), bull body, but bulls FG(failing) to get BO(breakout) andTRD(trading range day). The longer the bulls F(fail, failure) to get BO(breakout), the more likely they will exit and look to B(buy) LR(lower). Once bulls become SRS(sellers) at top of TRD(trading range day), the MKT(market) usually tries to test bottom of TR(trading range). PROB(probably) BRS(buyers) above 32 42 DT(double top) and SRS(sellers) below 29 38 DB(double bottom) for BO(breakout). HR(higher) P(probability) to wait for BO(breakout), or to find earlier entry on stop.
46 Lots of strong bear bodies so increasing SGP(selling pressure). Odds increasing for bear BO(breakout).
48 DT(double top) PB(pullback), C(close) on L(low). PROB(probably) ok S(short), expecting BO(breakout) below 38 DB(double bottom), but HR(higher) P(probability) to wait to see BO(breakout).
49 Bear BO(breakout) but C(close) above 38. PROB(probably) going for MM(measured move) down to test 60MA(60 minute 20 bar exponential moving average) and 9 L(low) so PROB(probably) AIS(always in short) and ok to be S(short) with stop above 49.
50 Bear FT(follow through), altho C(close) still not below 38. Odds favor down. Bulls have spent too much time trying for BO(breakout) so odds increasing that day will remain TRD(trading range day), and therefore test down.
51 Bear BP(breakout pullback) but might be BRS(buyers) below. SRS(sellers) above and on any bounce so might be ok S(short).
53 Two big bear bars. Should test 60 MA(moving average) and 9 L(low) and maybe LOD(low of the day). More down.
54 DB(double bottom) 9, but doji and steep down. SX(sell climax) so should go SW(sideways) for maybe 5-10 bars with traders SG(selling) above bars ad BG(buying) below. Better to wait.
55 Strong bull bar in likely small TR(trading range) = bear flag so SRS(sellers) above.
56 L1(1 legged pullback in a bear move) S(short) but after SX(sell climax) and at support so BRS(buyers) below and below 55 and 54. Most traders should not trade these limit order B(buy) and S(short) setups and wait to see if get L2(2 legged pullback in a bear move)S(short) near MA(moving average) or FF(final flag) B(buy) after bear BO(breakout) of developing bear flag.
57 Since bear flag likely and that is a small TR(trading range), odds favor SRS(sellers) above.
59 L2(2 legged pullback in a bear move) S(short), TGTS(targets) below, but might not be enough room for scalp. Better to wait.
60 FF(final flag), 60MA(60 minute 20 bar exponential moving average), 17t F(fail, failure), but did not fall below 9 and might have to get there to find BRS(buyers).
61 Big bull bar, C(close) at H(high), 2BR(two bar revresal). This might be the end of the SG(selling) and the bottom of the LTR(lower trading range). Might now fill in 52 G(gap). Not strong B(buy) above since still might fall below 9. Better to wait.
64 Another bull bar with C(close) on H(high) so PROB(probably) going up. Might just go SW(sideways) in 52 G(gap).
66 BP(breakout pullback) B(buy) but doji. Wait.
67 W(wedge) 56 61, but 3 dojis and BGP(buying pressure) below so PROB(probably) BRS(buyers) below.
69 OU(outside up bar). More up but most likely will go SW(sideways) between UTR(upper trading range) and LTR(lower trading range).
70 BO(breakout) but SW(sideways) more likely when big G(gap) between 2 trs.
73 Bear II(2 inside bars) but 2 bar FT(follow through) from 70 BO(breakout) so BRS(buyers) below, PROB(probably) for test of 42DT(double top). Better to not B(buy) above since only 3t below TGT(target) and bulls would need BO(breakout), which is LP(low probability). PROB(probably) SRS(sellers) above the DT(double top) since top of TRD(trading range day).
76 Bear IB(inside bar), F(fail, failure) BO(breakout), FF(final flag) 73 II(2 inside bars), but TC(tight channel) and /or resistance) just below. Better to wait.
今年争取每天学习一篇al逐日逐棒分析,欢迎大家讨论。手头资料刚好能撑一年。
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