http://s14/mw690/538af300gdd987e67ceed&690volumn spread analysis 成交量价差分析 1" TITLE="VSA volumn spread analysis 成交量价差分析 1" />

今年个人学习的重点放在k线 选择的是joe ross的分析方法，另外一个重头就是VSA 重点是成交量和价差在趋势背景里的分析。

vsa是由威克夫的方法发展而来，注重研究收盘价位置，价差和成交量的变化，和人性的恐惧和贪婪被激发和利用来研判价格的变化。

TRADING TERMS
Accumulation – ranging market characterized by low volume, narrow spread/range. The volume should shrink near a support line and expand near a resistance line. The SM is trying to buy up as much of the currency as possible.
Look at how the market was before it was ranging…if it was going up then it’s probably going to go up again after the accumulation. If it was going down then it might go down again…also look at main trend.
After the accumulation phase is over, smart money tries to get ready for the Mark up phase by moving prices up. This is
characterized by wide spread upbars that close near the top and also increased volume. Sometimes this will happen then the next bar will be a high volume bar downclosing indicating lowered demand. These bars are called Effort without Result bars and are signs of weakness before the start of the uptrend.

Mark up – characterized by rising lows. Prices are getting higher on lower volumes because of a lack of supply. In this phase, the price will shoot up with some high volume. Sometimes it doesn’t need to go through the mark up phase…it’ll just shoot up after accumulating. Here, a 150% increase in volume and a close near the top = a successful breakout. The breakout is just the beginning. Then the stock moves up in stages. Each stage would be an advance at higher volumes and a retracement at lower volumes. The retracement is mainly due to short term traders booking their profits. The SM also starts the distribution during the retracement. The points at which these retracements stop become important. These should be above the previous retracement stops. We will also see sideways movement during the up move which would be congestion areas. We need to pay lot of attention to these congestion areas for this could be final distribution areas before the mark down begins. Also it pays to give attention to volume during retracement and congestion areas. Increasing volumes near support line and low pivots indicate problem. If the increase is dramatic then it is time to re-evaluate your position.

Distribution – the smart money is trying to sell while making it look like the market’s still going up. Hard to spot this phase because sometimes there is no ranging period. Here the volume starts to diminish and the ranges narrow. Watch out for the volume increasing and price going up too steeply, it makes the price drop too unpredictable. Mark down – Price drops, price range widens.

Upbar – Close of the bar is higher than the close of the previous bar
Upclose – bar closes in the upper 30%
Downbar – Close of the bar is below the close of the previous bar
Downclose – bar closes in the lower 30%
Midclose – bar closes between 30%-70%
Wide spread bar – If the spread (range) is ~1.8x the average spread
Narrow spread bar – if the spread (range) is ~0.08x the average spread
Upthrust bar – wide spread bar with a high volume and closing down (in an uptrend). Its high is higher than the previous bar’s high.
An upthrust bar usually appears after a wide spread upbar with high volume. The upthrust bar is a sign of weakness in an uptrend.
No demand bar – a narrow spread upbar with low volume that closes in the lower half. It shows that there is no support from the
smart money (SM). Used for finding weakness in an uptrend.
No supply bar – another narrow spread downbar with low volume. It closes in the lower half. It is used to find strength in a
downtrend.

Watch out of no supply/demand bars occur after test bars.
Absorption volume – in a downtrend, when you see a downbar with high volume close near the top…indicates the SM is going to
start accumulating again so they can get the price moving up once more.
Reverse upthrust – in a downtrend, a wide spread bar with high volume and closing up near the top. Its low is entering lower
territory.

FINDING WEAKNESSES (looking for reversals and slowdowns in an uptrend)
The bar after the upthrust determines what to do—if the bar is a downbar and has high volume then the trend is
reversing and it might be time to close the buy and sell. And if the high of the bar is near the low of the upthrust then
that is also a sign of weakness in the uptrend. If the bar after the upthrust is an upbar then the trend is not weakening.
Another sign of weakness in the uptrend is when the price has been moving up with high volume and then encounters a
downbar downclosing with high volume. Also watch out for No demand bars as they may be another sign of weakness.
Upbars with high volume with narrow spread and closing in the middle or low indicates is a possible indicator of
weakness as well – look at the later bars to confirm.

FINDING STRENGTH (looking for reversals and slowdowns in a downtrend)
One of the most powerful ways to find indicators of strength is testing for supply. They do this to see if there is still any
supply left. They do this by quickly lowering the price—if the price closes near the top and has low volume it indicates
that there is no supply. Another big sign of weakness is an absorption volume bar. It indicates that the downtrend will
soon stop and either reverse or range. Yet another sign of strength is a reverse upthrust…it means the trend will usually
reverse immediately

这里面笔者定义了几个概念
积累或者说收集，建仓。这个区域一般体现为横盘，在接近于支撑区域量能萎缩（区域下沿），而接近于阻力区域供给增加量能增加，sm或者综合交易者，职业交易者开始有意增加供给使得价格再次回落至区域下沿。而sm到底是积累多头还是空头头寸依赖于市场整体趋势的多空。
如果积累完成此时相对来说供给会比较少，sm会选择时机进行向自己头寸方向攻击，会造成一个大价差成交量150%*平时量ma14的攻击并且收盘引线较小或者没有，如果后一根k收回实体内交易量缩小则代表一个弱势信号，称为努力无结果。累积过后是拉升，如果对于多头则期望低点和高点逐渐抬高，成交量逐渐增加，在横盘期或者回撤期交易量下降，然后重复这个过程，一直到最后一个平台或者拉升期。如果平台整理或者价格回撤的时候出现大的成交量，尤其是在价格支撑区域出现就要警惕，是否sm在离场。

sm的派发一般是在价格仍旧在上升的过程中，但交易量会下降，因为筹码逐步从专业玩家分散到了弱势持有者手中。而价格差也会变小。