The Meaning of the 21st Century 汉译

James Martin

At the start of the 21^st century, humankind finds itself on a non-sustainable course—the course that, unless it is changed, could lead to grand scale catastrophes. At the same time, we are unlocking formidable new capabilities that lead to more exciting lives and glorious civilizations. This could be either humanity’s last century or the century that sets the world on a course toward a spectacular future.

We live on a small, beautiful and a totally isolated planet, but its population is becoming too large; enormous new consumer societies are growing, of which China is the largest; and technology is becoming powerful enough to wreck the planet. We are traveling at breakneck speed into an age of the extremes—extremes in wealth and poverty, extremes in technology and the experiments that scientists want to perform, extreme forces of globalism, weapons of mass destruction and terrorists acting in the name of religion. If we are to survive, we have to learn how to manage this situation.

Formidable problems confront us, but this is a book about solutions—many solutions. With these solutions we will bring about the change in course, a great 21^st century transition. If we get it right, we have an extraordinary future. If we get it wrong, we face an irreversible disruption that could set humanity back centuries. A drastic change is needed in the first half of that 21^st century to set the stage for extraordinary events in the rest of the century.

Humankind has been able to thrive for thousands of years because nature provided it with resources like topsoil, underground water, fish in the oceans, minerals, oil and wetlands, but these resources are finite, like cookies in a jar. We are using up many of these resources, and some don’t have substitutes.

Nature also provided us with an ozone layer and a delicately regulated atmosphere, with forests that remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere but are now being depleted. Every year, because of our misuse of the Earth’s resources, we lose 100 million acres of farmland and 24 billion tons of topsoil, and we create 15 million acres of new desert around the world. An inch of good topsoil can take a thousand years to form, but when people destroy windbreaks by cutting down trees, the topsoil can be washed or blown away in months.

Water is vital for our survival and for producing food. It takes about a thousand tons of water to produce one ton of grain that, fed to cows, produces only 18 pounds of meat. Today mankind is using about 160 billion tons more water each year than is being replenished by rain and fed back into water storages. If this water were carried in water trucks, it would require a 300,000-mile-long convoy of trucks every day—a convoy length 37 times the diameter of the Faith. This is how much water we are using and not replenishing.

During the lifetime of today’s teenagers, fresh water will run out in many parts of the world, making food production difficult. Many fish species will be too depleted to replenish themselves. Global warming will bring hurricanes far more severe than Katrina and will cause natural climate-control mechanisms to go wrong. Rising temperatures will lower crop yields in many of the world’s poorest countries, such as those in central Africa. The immense tensions brought about by such catastrophes will occur in a time of extremism, religious belligerence and suicidal terrorism, and this will coincide with terrible weapons becoming much less expensive and more widely available.

This interconnected set of problems has an interconnected set of solutions. If we humans implement these solutions, we can gradually achieve sustainable development and a sustainable but affluent life. Working toward sustainability requires many different types of actions in different subject areas. In light of rapidly advancing technology, however, sustainability alone is not enough. We need to be concerned with survivability. There must be a move away from the untenable course we are on today toward a world where we learn to control the diverse forces we are unleashing.

Today’s young people will be the generation that brings about this great transition. Let’s refer to it as the 21C Transition. They are ultimately responsible for the changes we describe—a transition unlike any before in history. They are the Transition Generation. It is vital that they—all of them—understand the 21C Transition, so that they can understand the critical role they will play. For many, understanding the meaning of the 21^st century will give meaning to their own lives.

二十一世纪的意义

詹姆斯·马丁

在21世纪开始之际，人类意识到自己正走上了一条走不下去的路。除非改变方向，否则这条路会将人类引向巨大的灾难。可是同时，我们也正释放出种种新的巨大潜能，而借助这些潜能，人类能迎来各种更令人激动的生活和更光辉的文明。这可能是人类的最后一个世纪，但也可能是人类拨正航程，朝光辉灿烂未来驶去的一个世纪。

我们生活在一个与其他星球隔绝的美丽的小星球上，但是地球的人口已经太多;庞大的新消费社会正在成长，而中国是其中最大的一个;科技也变得无比强大，足以毁坏这个星球。我们正疯狂地奔向一个极端的时代：极端的富有，极端的贫困，极端的科学技术，极端的科学实验，极端的全球化影响力，大规模毁灭性武器，还有以宗教名义进行的恐怖活动。假如想要逃此一劫，我们就得学会如何驾驭这一形势。

我们正面临诸多难以克服的困难。但这是一本提出解决方案的书，一本提供许多解决方案的书。有了这些解决方案，我们将促成变化，修正航程，迎来21世纪伟大的转变。如果做得对，我们就会有美好的未来。如果做错了，人类的进程将受到干扰，其结果无法逆转，人类将因之倒退几个世纪。21世纪的前半世纪必须有一个剧烈的转变方可搭起舞台，让非凡事件在后半个世纪登场。

人类几千年来一直能蓬勃发展，因为大自然提供给我们种种资源，如表层土、地下水、海中的鱼、矿物、石油和湿地，但是这些资源并非用之不竭，就像饼干罐中的饼干，吃一块少一块。我们正在耗尽许多资源，而有些是无法替代的资源。

大自然还提供给我们一个臭氧层和一个调节得非常精准的大气层，因为森林能从大气层中带走二氧化碳，可是现在森林的面积正在急剧减少。每一年，由于滥用地球的资源，我们要损失一亿公顷的农地，240亿吨的表层土，却给地球增添了1500万公顷的新沙漠。一英寸上好表层土的形成需要一千年的时间，但当人们砍伐树木，破坏风障时，却只需几个月的时间表层土就会被风吹散，被水冲走。

水是人类存亡之所系，是食物生产之所需。生产一吨的谷物需要一千吨的水，而一吨的谷物喂牛的话，仅能为我们换取18磅的牛肉。如果将使用的水和降雨后蓄存的水相比较，那么人类可说是入不敷出，每年大概多用了1600亿吨的水。如果用水车载水，那每天就得有一个30万英里长的车队，而这个车队的长度是地球直径的37倍。这就是我们正在使用的水量，而不是正在获取的水量。

今天十多岁的年轻人，将会在他们的一生中看到世界许多地方淡水枯竭，致使食物生产困难。许多鱼的数量将会大大减少，以致鱼种无法繁衍再生。全球变暖将会招致咫风肆虐，使卡特里娜咫风成为大巫面前的小巫，而全球暖化还会使自然气候调控机制失灵。气温升高将使许多最贫困国家的农作物产量下降，比如中非的一些国家。这种种的灾害会诱发高度的紧张，而这一切又将发生在一个充满极端的时代，宗教纷争不断、自杀恐怖活动频繁，加之可怕的武器偏偏又会变得不很昂贵，极易获得。

这一系列相互关联的问题也有一系列相互关联的解决方案。如果我们人类能将这些方案付诸实施，我们就能渐渐地达到可持续发展的目标，享有一种既可持续但仍富裕的生活。达到可持续这个目标需要在不同的领域采取不同的行动。然而考虑到科技的快速发展，仅仅可持续是不够的。我们需要关注能否存活。我们必须放弃今日我们采取的已无出路的方向，朝一个新方向前行，而新世界要求我们学会掌控我们释放出的各种能量。

今天的年轻人将是促成这一伟大转变的一代人。让我们将这一转变称之为“21世纪的转变”。最终将由他们肩负起这个史无前例转变的责任。他们是“转变的一代”。至关重要的是，他们所有的人都要懂得“21世纪的转变”，这样才能懂得他们将起到的作用是举足轻重的。对于很多人来说，了解21世纪的意义将为他们的生活带来意义。 （叶子南译）