央行降息。
股市不领情。
银行不领情。
消费者不领情。
雇主也不领情!
我在LinkedIn 博文中说,这个七天回购利率对中国巨大的信贷市场和经济没有意义。降低雨伞的价格可能更有相关性。
刺激经济的关键是:
(1)银行的贷款欲望(及坏帐承受力),
(2)借款人的风险溢价,
(3)实业投资者的欲望。
短期利率与信贷市场和实体经济没多大关系。
China cuts interest rates: Trivia, trivia!
Bloomberg makes a big fuss about nothing. After China’s central bank cut an obscure interest rate by 20 basis points at lunch time, Bloomberg immediately says that (The) “People’s Bank of China reduces 7-day reverse repo rate to 2.20 per cent from 2.40 per cent, the largest cut since 2015.”.
After a national lockdown for 7-8 weeks, isn’t this a tiny bandage for a fatal car crash? Worse: This repo rate is irrelevant to the credit market or the economy. Reducing the umbrella price would be more relevant.
No wonder Shanghai stock index fell 0.9% today.
The point I made this morning in another post is:
(1) China is constantly stimulating its economy. 4 decades in a row.
(2) It does not need to make a show of it. The public knows the government is always working on it.
(3) Government does not need parliament to approve an action: stimulus or otherwise. They just do it.
(4) Labour market pressure is very minor because of an automatic stabiliser: millions of migrant workers.