程阳：尼日利亚骗局（Nigerian scams ）

的博彩心理学意义

 【科马克•哈利论文PDF下载】

尼日利亚骗局（Nigerian scams）是一个国际性的信息诈骗模式，通过电子邮件、手机短信、新兴的微信等渠道发送诈骗信息，并通过电子渠道骗取上钩者的金钱。

例如，一条典型的尼日利亚骗局短信是这样的——

Yes, you have won millions of Nairas! Seriously? you mutter。

您（的号码）赢得了奈拉百万大奖！真的？别犹豫。

一般来说，收到诈骗短信不奇怪，只是很多人会觉得，如此“弱智”的骗术真的能得逞吗？骗傻子呀？科学研究证明——对，就是骗傻子！

对此微软研究人员科马克•哈利（Cormac Herley）的论文《为何尼日利亚骗局总声称自己来自尼日利亚》（Why do Nigerian Scammers Say They are from Nigeria? ）做了深入的研究。其结论是，尼日利亚骗局的设计很科学，可以甄别弱智者（Nigerian scams are scientifically designed to identify idiots ）。

按一般人想法，这类诈骗短信为什么智商如此低？其实，如果骗子短信的内容天衣无缝、充满逻辑，那么很多正常智商的人就会加入其中，分析出破绽而广为传播，骗子根本没有获利的机会必将大大降低。反而，有意把诈骗短信设计的“弱智”一些，在正常人看来这么“弱智”的东西哪可能有人上当，所以必然不加入分析议论和传播，而人类群体这么大总有部分“弱智”者会上钩——弱智的设计，筛选到了弱智的群体，弱智的群体才能带来滚滚财源——这就是尼日利亚骗局（Nigerian scams）设计的“科学性”！

其实，从某些角度来看，尼日利亚骗局（Nigerian scams）设计的心理学路径，在博彩业游戏设计中一直在沿用。简单的游戏，是最赚钱的游戏，全球博彩业市场实践证明了这点——如果人人都是理性的数学家，博彩业早就不存在了！

Nigerian scams are hyper-efficient idiot finders

The bigger the lie, the bigger the pile of cash scammers scoop, says MSFT boffin

A Microsoft researcher, Cormac Herley, has penned a paper titled “Why do Nigerian Scammers Say They are from Nigeria?” (PDF), and concludes the whoppers the scam includes are actually a very efficient way of finding likely targets.

Herley's analysis suggests the scam works because it quickly passes BS-detection thresholds in most readers, but those stupid enough to fall for the scam self-select by responding. Scammers end up with a list of hot prospects who have self-selected, leaving them with less work to cash in than would be required with a more plausible tale.

“An email with tales of fabulous amounts of money and West African corruption will strike all but the most gullible as bizarre,” he writes. “It will be recognized and ignored by anyone who has been using the Internet long enough to have seen it several times. It will be figured out by anyone savvy enough to use a search engine [and] won’t be pursued by anyone who consults sensible family or fiends [that's Microsoft's typo], or who reads any of the advice banks and money transfer agencies make available.”

“Those who remain are the scammers ideal targets,” the paper proclaims, as “A less outlandish wording that did not mention Nigeria would almost certainly gather more total responses and more viable responses, but would yield lower overall profit.”

There's a serious side to all this, as the main thrust of Herley's research is how false positives are used by folks with more evil intent than Nigerian scammers to design other forms of attack. He therefore suggests “thinking like an attacker does not end when a hole is found, but must continue (as an attacker would continue) in determining how the hole can be monetized.” ®