福布斯：中国网上购物将以48%的年增长率增长

• 程阳：2011年中国电影市场100多亿元
• 程阳：2011年全球GDP总量69.66万亿美元同比增长3.9%
• 程阳：2011年大中华区博彩业营业额887亿美元
• 程阳：中国成人用品市场规模与彩票相当
• 程阳：2011年中国广告业规模突破3000亿元
• 程阳：2011年中国彩票销售额2216亿元增33.3%
• 福布斯：中国网上购物预计将以48%的年增长率增长

Investing|11/22/2011 @ 4:55下午 |2,846 views

Where The Chinese Are Shopping

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2011/11/22/where-the-chinese-are-shopping-2/

In the not so distant future, the market will be as concerned about what Chinese consumers are buying as they currently are with Americans.  And according to Bain & Company, more Chinese are shopping online.

It’s not necessarily what they are buying, but where they are buying it that also matters to investors looking for long-term trends.  Similar to what Americans do at Amazon.com (AMZN), Chinese consumers are buying everything from Jin Yong novels to Lenovo laptops on sites like E-Commerce Dandang (DANG) and SINA Corporation (SINA).

China ecommerce market was 460 billion yuan ($74 billion) in 2010 and has been outgrowing traditional retail sales  at a 102% compound annual growth rate. Going forward, online shopping is expected to grow at 48% per year to reach 1.5 trillion yuan by 2013, still accounting for just 7% of total retail sales meaning despite those numbers there will still be room for greater market share for online retailers, Bain researchers said in their 19 page report released Tuesday.

Books and electronics are the most penetrated items, followed by cosmetics and clothing.  The jury is still out on the “China formula” to turn pure growth into profitable growth, but the underlying fundamentals for increased online shopping are indisputable, Bain says.

Online sales have gone from just 1% of total retail sales in China to 4% forecast for this year.  China’s retail market is about 18 trillion yuan, or $2.9 trillion. Online sales should hit over 772 billion yuan this year, with compound annual growth rates from 2010 to 2013 forecast at 48% versus 17% for traditional retail in China and 17% over the same period for U.S. online sales.

China is also home to the world’s largest number of internet users. Bain estimates 556 million Chinese are online this year with 34% of them shopping online. By 2013, China should have 715 million people online, with 40% shopping online for an increase of nearly 100 million new online shoppers in China over the next two years.

Besides the publicly traded retail platform names like Sina and Dangdang, multinationals like Walmart (WMT) will do well because of Sam’s Club online shopping, as will The Estée Lauder Companies (EL), ranked by Bain as a favorite among cosmetics shoppers. Local online retailers like home appliance company Suning Appliance (SHE: 2024) is one of the most popular sites for shoppers followed by the privately held 360buy.com. The company counts Walmart, Baidu (BIDU) and Russian investment firm Digital Sky as minority shareholders.

【美国《福布斯》双周刊网站11月22日报道】中国人在哪里购物

    在不远的将来，市场将像现在关注美国人一样关注中国的消费者在买什么。据美国咨询公司贝恩公司称，越来越多的中国人正在网上购物。

    而对于寻找长期趋势的投资者来说，他们关心的不光是中国人买什么，还有会在哪里购物。正如美国人在亚马逊网站购物一样，中国的消费者会在从事电子商务的网站购买从金庸小说到联想电脑的各种商品。

    中国的电子商务市场2010年大大超过传统零售业的增长。贝恩公司的研究员在今天发布的19页报告中说，展望未来，网上购物预计将以48%的年增长率增长，到2013年将达1.5万亿元，但仍只占总零售额的7%。这意味着尽管已经达到目前的数字，但网上零售商仍有很大的空间获得更大的市场份额。

    书籍和电子产品是进入网上销售最多的商品，其次是化妆品和服装。贝恩公司表示，目前关于“中国模式”能否把单纯的增长转化为赢利增长尚无定论，但网上购物增长的基本数据是不可辩驳的。

    中国还拥有世界上最多的互联网用户。贝恩公司估计今年中国的互联网用户将达5.5 6亿，其中3 4%的互联网用户可能会在网上购物。到2013年，中国应该拥有7.15亿互联网用户，如果40%的用户在网上购物，那么在接下来的两年里，中国将新增近1亿网上购物者。

    【法新社北京11月23日电】据新的研究，已经拥有最多互联网用户的中国可能会在2015年取代美国成为最大的电子商务市场。

    根据波士顿咨询集团的新报告，中国的电子商务市场目前总价值为740亿美元———不及美国1770亿美元的一半。但是受到网民数量增加、运输成本低以及中产阶级购物热情高涨等因素的推动，中国的发展很迅速。

    报告称：“中国已经拥有1.45亿网上购物者，预计今后的增长迅猛，2015年网上购物者的数量将达3.2 9亿，这将使中国的电子商务市场成为世界价值最高的市场。”