程阳：国际货币基金组织《世界经济展望》

IMF WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

 2009年全球经济微降0.5%

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1. The quarterly estimates and projections account for 90 percent of the world purchasing-power-parity weights.
2. The quarterly estimates and projections account for approximately 77 percent of the emerging and developing economies.
3. Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.

The global economic recovery has been evolving better than expected in the last six months, but the recovery is still subject to significant downsize risks. In many parts of the world the strength of the rebound is moderate. World GDP is expected to grow by 4.2 per cent in 2010 (compared with a decline of 0.5 per cent in 2009), mainly driven by good performance in emerging developing countries. Merchandise trade is forecast to expand by 9.5 per cent in 2010 after the unprecedented decline of 12.2 per cent a year earlier. In advanced economies, unemployment is projected to stay close to 9 per cent through 2011 and then to decline only slowly. Trade has an important role to play in firmly anchoring the economic recovery, and offers a sustainable, non-debt creating source of growth and development. 

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