加载中…程阳：House Advantage in Four Ways
(2009-04-12 11:41:22)
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程阳houseadvantageinfourways |
分类： 彩理探考 |
How Casinos Measure House Advantage, and What the Values Mean
Odds alone don't fill casino coffers. Payoffs are also factors. The house advantage arises because the payoff for winning a bet is a bit below the odds overcome to do so. Take the two-column roulette example. Bet $12 per column, $24 total. A win nets you $12. But the odds were 24-to-14, so a bet with no house advantage would pay $14. The casino's profit comes by grabbing the $24 when you lose but forking over $12 instead of $14 when you win.
Confusing the
issue even further is the fact that house advantage is evaluated in four
different ways, and you may encounter one or
another of the figures interchangeably. The measures are edge,
return percentage, vigorish -- often called vig, and hold --
sometimes called hold percentage or PC (for
percentage).
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Edge is a theoretical
quantity. It's the fraction of the overall amount bet that the
casino would earn if every set of decisions fell precisely into
statistical line. Consider the two-column roulette bet again. In 38
spins, the house expects to win 14 rounds at $24 each for $336 in
all, and to lose 24 rounds at $12 each for a total of $288. The
total bet would be $24 x 38 or $912 while theoretical "take" is
$336 - $288 or $48. The edge is $48 divided by $912 or 5.26
percent. A particular series of 38 rounds may not give the casino
24 wins and 14 losses. But, 38,000,000 such decisions will be close
enough to 24,000,000 and 14,000,000 that the moguls can haul their
5.26 percent to the bank.
Return percentage, another
theoretical quantity, is the fraction of the overall bet that would
go back to players if results were on the statistical button.
Return percentage, most often used to characterize slot machines,
is the complement of edge. That is, a 94 percent return implies 100
minus 94 or 6 percent edge.
Vigorishis an actual fee
the casino collects from bettors. In some instances, the casino
assesses the vig when it books the wager so players pay it whether
they win or lose. On buy bets at craps, for example, the vig is 5
percent of the wager, usually rounded down to the nearest whole
dollar. So, if you buy a four for $100, you give the dealer $105 --
$100 for the bet and $5 for the vig. If you win, you get back your
$100 plus a $200 payoff; the casino keeps the $5. If you lose,
you're out the whole $105.
On some
propositions, most notably Banker at baccarat, the casino charges a
vigorish only on winnings. Pretend you bet $20 on Banker. If you
lose, your $20 goes south. If you win, you collect $20 minus the 5
percent -- or $1 -- vig. So you only net $19.
Hold or PC has two
distinct meanings, different when referring to slots or tables.
Both are tangible, however, not theoretical.
On the slots,
hold is the fraction of the money actually cycled through the
machine that the casino keeps. It's the real counterpart of edge --
or the flip side of return percentage -- based on tallies rather
than probabilities.
At the tables,
hold is the fraction of the drop -- the cash crammed into the box
when players buy into the game -- that the casino keeps. It's
counted rather than predicted. It's influenced by edge but is not
analogous to it, because hold also depends on how long players
continue to bet from their original buy-ins and how they size their
wagers relative to their bankrolls.
Sumner A
Ingmark, poet laureate of the casino scene, agreed that knowing the
various ways house advantage is measured and quoted can aid in
understanding and sometimes in minimizing the effect. But he
cautioned against believing it can be eliminated.
***************************
Casino house advantage
Everybody
knows why casinos get rich. They have an advantage on every bet in
games of independent trials. Every casino has its advantage against
each player. It is called a house edge and exists in every online
casino you play in. The house advantage is a percentage of a
player's bets or a quantity that the house expects to win. For
example if the house advantage is 5 percent the player will lose $5
for every $100 bets.
The player is
not able to avoid the house advantage; he should choose a casino
where the house advantage is lowered. That means that the player
will have chances to win more and to lose less.
At certain
games the house advantage covers some factors such as player's
skills, the time spent on a game, bets amount. The player should
know that a casino can't lose.
House
advantage is different in various games. House advantages vary from
casino to casino, from slot to slot. For a typical player with
average skills house advantages in different casino games range
from 5 percent to 1.5 percent for blackjack; 1.1 percent to 14.4
percent for baccarat; 1.4 percent to 16.7 percent for craps; 2.7
percent to 5.3 percent for roulette; and 0.5 to 12 percent for slot
machines.
When a player
involves an element of skill in playing or betting his chances to
win are maximized. Slots, craps, roulette and other are the games
of chance, which based on randomness. A typical player is not able
to influence the outcome through any strategy. Each event in a game
is independent and it's not influenced by previous events. For
instance a roulette wheel is not more or less likely to land on
black if it has just landed on red. You may lose and win but keep
in mind that over time the outcome will be taken by the house
advantage.
Experienced
gamblers usually won't play for example slot machine games because
there is nothing a player can do to change the house advantage.
They prefer games of skill to games of chance because those will
increase the winning chances such as poker.
Some may think
that slots can cheat you. But it's not true. Regulatory agencies
strictly control casinos and check if all games are determined by
chance and you lose and win fairly.
If you know
the house advantage you can have an idea of how much a casino
expects to win. Some other factors can also influence the amount a
player spends in casino games.
The longer a
gambler plays in games of luck such as slots or craps, the more
chance there is that the gambler will lose money because odds
always favor a casino. For example the house edge for a slot
machine is 10 percent. That means that a player will get $90 for
each $100 wagered. But if the player re-wagers the $90 he will win
back on average 90 percent of the $90 that is $81.
When you play
the two-column roulette, bet $12 per column, the total is $24. The
odds are 24-to-14. A win nets you $12. The casino grabs $24 when
you lose and pays off $12 instead of $14. The house advantage
arises because the payoff for winning a bet is below the
odds.
The house
advantage exists in four different ways. They are edge, vigorish or
vig, return percentage, and hold. When you encounter them you
shouldn't be confused.
Edge is a
theoretical quantity. It's a percentage of the overall amount bet
that the casino would earn from every wager a player makes. You can
easily calculate that percentage. Let's take the two-column
roulette for example again. A wheel makes 38 spins, the casino
expects to win 14 rounds at $24 each, 14 x 24 - $336 and expects to
lose 24 rounds at $12 for $288 in all. The total bet is $912 but
the house grabs $336 - $288 or $48. This quantity is divided by the
total bet and we get 5.26 percent, which would be the
edge.
Vigorish in
other words is a fee that the casino gets from bettors. Players pay
the vig whether they win or lose. At craps, for example, the vig is
5 percent of the wager. When you bet $100, you give the dealer
$105, $5 is the vig. If you win, you get back your $100 plus a $200
payoff; the casino keeps the $5. If you lose, casino gets the whole
$105. But the vig is not the same in different games. At baccarat
if you bet on banker and win, the winning banker pays you 100% - 5
%. The 5 percent is the vig. The loss means you lose the whole
wager.
Return
percentage (payout percentages) is the fraction of the overall bet
that would go back to players if results were on the statistical
button. This theoretical quantity usually use to describe slots
payout. The edge for a 94 percent return is 100 minus 94 or 6
percent.
Hold is a
tangible quantity and has 2 meaning when referring to slots or
tables. On the slots hold is the amount cycled through the machine,
that the casino keeps and based on tallies. And at tables the hold
is the cash that casino keeps after players buy into a
game.
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