程阳：死亡的几率VS大英彩票的几率

Risk of death compared with winning the lottery

Clinical bottom line

The chances of dying between Friday and Monday is 1100 times more than that of winning the lottery.

Source of data

• UK National Statistics (www.statistics.gov.uk)
• UK Government actuaries Department (www.gad.gov.uk/)

What the sources tell us

• Total number of deaths in the UK per year = 571,911
• Total number of deaths in the UK per day = 571,911/365 = 1,567
• Population of the UK = 60,587,000
• Odds of dying in the UK per day = 1 in (60,587,000/1,567) = 1 in 38,667
• Odds of dying over three days (Fri, Sat, Sun) = 1 in 38,667 x 3 = 1 in 12,889

Give us the odds

• Odds of dying in the UK per day = 1 in (60,587,000/1,567) = 1 in 38,667
• Odds of dying over three days (Fri, Sat, Sun) = 1 in 38,667 x 3 = 1 in 12,889
• Chance of winning the UK National Lottery = 1 in 13,983,816
• The chances of dying between Friday and Monday is 1100 times more than that of winning the lottery

Figure 1: Comparing chance of winning the UK lottery with average risk of dying over the weekend

Risk Communication Tool (c) John Paling 2000 (www.riskcomm.com)

http://www.medicine.ox.ac.uk/bandolier/booth/Risk/lottery1.jpg

Comment

Pretty obvious, really, when you think about it for a few minutes, because about 1% of the population of the UK dies every year, and the chance of winning the lottery is so very small.