Bill Nygren谈价值投资㈡

……陈宏杰博客  blog.sina.com.cn/timesbaby……

So how do we avoid the K-Marts? Over long time periods, the stock market has returned a few percentage points per year above the government bond yield, say a total return of around 8 or 9%. To achieve that return, we look for companies where the sum of dividend yield plus value growth at least matches the market. That way, if our stocks start out at 60% of value and stay at 60% of value, we should still produce a return similar to the market. If, as we expect, the valuation gap narrows, we will outperform. So with each investment under consideration, we estimate the current per-share business value, and we also project how that value will change over the next five years. We of course look at sales and income growth, but we also look at capital needs and whether excess cash is generated or cash is consumed. We incorporate those balance sheet changes into our value estimate. Consider an example we own that is especially appropriate this time of year —What could be more boring than a tax preparation business? Its pretty easy to project that as population grows, the number of tax returns will continue to grow each year. The percentage of filers needing professional help has consistently risen and we expect that to continue, and H&R Block has been the market leader for years and will probably keep slowly gaining market share.

有什么办法可以规避凯马特这样的投资陷阱？长期来看，股市很难超越长期国债的收益率，也就是说回报率约为年化8～9%。要达到这个回报，我们期待投资品种的总股利增长至少与市场相匹配。如果我们的股票停留在其价值的60%区域，我们应该获得类似市场的平均回报。而一旦，符合预期，其估值差距缩小，我们就会超越市场。因此，对每项投资，我们应估计目前的商业价值，也应对其未来五年内的价值变动有些谋划。重要能保持一个相对较高而稳定的边际收益水平，就不失为是好品种，若能在此基础上，扩大市场份额，则更佳。 (陈宏杰博客   blog.sina.com.cn/TimesBaby)

In most any economic environment, H&R Block should see good revenue growth because it prepares more tax returns each year. Small price increases will add to revenue growth, and as revenues grow, operating margins also improve slightly. Because of these higher margins, net income should grow even faster than revenues. Another great feature of the tax preparation business is that very little capital is needed to support growth. There is no inventory. Customers pay at the time of service, so there are no receivables; and capital spending is pretty much limited to new desks and chairs to expand capacity. Therefore, H&R Block should generate a large amount of cash that isn’t needed to support its revenue growth. Management has recently been using their excess cash primarily for share repurchases. So five years from now, H&R Block’s net income will likely be divided across fewer shares than are outstanding today. Per-share value growth should therefore be even greater than net income growth. Add in the dividend, and we conclude that value growth at H&R Block is likely to be much greater than value growth for the overall market. A superior business at a below average price, H&R Block continues to be one of our favorite stocks. This is the process we go through on any stock that we think looks undervalued.

利润的产生不是以追加资本投入为前提，是优秀企业的标志之一。

Our third and final investment criteria at Oakmark is that we invest only in companies where we believe management is smart, honest, and economically aligned with shareholders. If, today, I was offering you the opportunity to invest in a private partnership, I have no doubt there would be many questions about the management of that partnership. Who is running it? Are they trustworthy? What is their track record? How do they get paid? All are very appropriate questions. For some reason, however, investors often neglect those same questions when they are purchasing publicly traded stocks. Our goal is to invest in companies where we are so comfortable that management is smart, honest, and acting in our interest, that even if the investment was in a limited liquidity partnership, we would still be anxious to invest. How do we learn about management? Every public company is required to present brief biographies of top management in their 10K annual report filed with the SEC. These are now all available free on the Internet.

企业领导团队必须诚实可信任，以构筑企业为其终生目标，道德风险对于投资人是很大的风险。投资就是对企业家的一场赌博，企业家若所选非人，投资结果可想而知。 (陈宏杰博客   blog.sina.com.cn/TimesBaby)

We look at how management is performing in their current company, and also at how they performed at previous companies. In the two years prior to our purchase, the stock fell from a high of 78 dollars down to 12 dollars as Penney’s lost market share to discounters like Kohl’s and Target and to department stores like Macy’s. We hadn’t had confidence in JC Penney management. But, then they hired a new CEO, Allen Questrom. Anyone reading Penney’s SEC document could have learned of Questrom’s success turning around Neiman Marcus, Federated Department Stores, Macy’s, and Barney�s. Since we had previously been an investor in Federated, we were already very familiar with his track record. Did we think the new management made a turnaround a sure bet? Of course not — but it sure changed the odds.

老聂买入美国零售巨头JC Penney 后，他从每股78美元下跌至12美元，之后公司更换了CEO，将百货达人Allen Questrom招揽到旗下，Allen曾在联邦百货风头十足。不过，好领导与烂企业的拔河，投资人最好还是选择站到一边观看。通常情况下，烂企业总是会让好领导的名誉受损。

We also want company management to be honest. We talk to past business associates, current co-workers, customers, and suppliers to see if they feel this particular management has been honest with them and is trustworthy. We expect to hold a stock for several years — during our holding period many important decisions will get made that will never be disclosed. Being able to trust management is really important. Our firm is located in Chicago so our Midwestern roots and common sense are an important part of our investment approach. As I was growing up, my dad used to say that he would rather have the word of an honest man than the signature of a dishonest man. That’s the thought we try to bring to judging the character of our managements.

The last point about management is that we want their economic interest aligned with ours. Over the several years we own a stock, the company will face a handful of major decisions that will strongly influence whether or not our investment is successful. Perhaps management will consider making a large acquisition, or even consider selling our company. We want to make sure that they own enough stock or have other incentives so that their own personal profit is maximized only if our profit is also maximized. We want management to think like owners, not hired hands. We want them to get rich only if we do. And again, all of this information is in the annual proxy filed with the SEC and available free on the Internet. It will tell you how much stock the managers each own, how many options, how their bonus compensation is calculated — everything you want to know. (陈宏杰博客   blog.sina.com.cn/TimesBaby)

Our most successful stock in Oakmark’s history was Liberty Media. One of the reasons we were comfortable taking a large position in Liberty back in 1991 was that the proxy disclosed the CEO had asked to have his entire compensation over the next five years in the form of stock options. He knew the company far better than we ever would and we liked the fact that he was working for free unless the stock went up. We still own Liberty Media. Despite the strong stock price performance, business value has grown rapidly and we still believe the stock is inexpensive.

When all three of Oakmark’s investment criteria are met : 1) the stock sells below 60% of value, 2) the value grows as time passes, and 3) the company is managed by people who behave like owners, we create our greatest competitive advantage — the luxury of a long time horizon. We don’t worry about when the market will recognize value, because the longer it takes, the greater our return will be.

只有当投资品种符合下列三个标准，我们才会心动：1）股票售价低于价值的60%；2）价值随着时间的推移而增长；3）该公司管理者与股东利益一致。这样，当市场承认其价值时，我们花费的时间越长，我们的回报就会越大。自买入时，我们从不为持有时限而苦恼。 (陈宏杰博客   blog.sina.com.cn/TimesBaby)