今天发生地震了

14：38分，杭州，本人办公室（8楼），有点摇晃

发点国难财的时候，作空中国财险H股2328，购其沽权更有趣（有杠杆）

巴爷对保险的一段分析：

Thus, this year's sales contracts ("premium written" in the parlance of the industry) determine about one-half of next year's level of revenue ("premiums earned"). The remaining half will be determined by sales contracts written next year that will be about 50% earned in that year. The profitability consequences are automatic: if you make a mistake in pricing, you have to live with it for an uncomfortable period of time.今年销售合约(业内说法，称之为保费收入)决定了明年保费收入水准的半数，至于另外一半则由明年签下的保险契约来决定，因此获利情况自然而然会递延，也就是说若你在订价上犯了错误，那你所受痛苦可能会持续一阵子。

Note in the table below the year-over-year gain in industry-wide premiums written and the impact that it has on the current and following year's level of underwriting profitability. The result is exactly as you would expect in an inflationary world. When the volume gain is well up in double digits, it bodes well for profitability trends in the current and following year. When the industry volume gain is small, underwriting experience very shortly will get worse, no matter how unsatisfactory the current level.注意每年保费收入成长率以及其对当年与隔年度获利影响，而结果正如同你在通胀高涨时所预期一样，当保费收入以二位数成长，则当年与隔年获利数字就会很好看，但若保费收入仅能以个位数成长，则表示承保结果就会变得很差。

呵呵，短期作空可以，中线可不敢与基本面逆行。