巴爷论卓越的、不错的及糟糕的生意（中）

……陈宏杰博客  blog.sina.com.cn/timesbaby……

Let's look at the prototype of a dream business, our own See's Candy. The boxed-chocolates industry in which it operates is unexciting: Per-capita consumption in the U.S. is extremely low and doesn't grow. Many once-important brands have disappeared, and only three companies have earned more than token profits over the last forty years. Indeed, I believe that See's, though it obtains the bulk of its revenues from only a few states, accounts for nearly half of the entire industry’s earnings.(陈宏杰博客   blog.sina.com.cn/TimesBaby)

让我们看一个理想企业的原型——我们自己的喜斯糖果公司。它所在的盒装巧克力行业很令人扫兴：美国人均消费量极低而且上升缓慢。很多曾经重要的品牌都消失了，在过去的四十年中，只有三家公司赚得了比象征性利润稍多点的钱。实际上，我相信喜斯的利润几乎占据了整个行业利润的一半，尽管它的销售收入只是从很少几个州取得的。

At See's, annual sales were 16 million pounds of candy when Blue Chip Stamps purchased the company in 1972. (Charlie and I controlled Blue Chip at the time and later merged it into Berkshire.) Last year See’s sold 31 million pounds, a growth rate of only 2% annually. Yet its durable competitive advantage, built by the See's family over a 50-year period, and strengthened subsequently by Chuck Huggins and Brad Kinstler, has produced extraordinary results for Berkshire.(陈宏杰博客   blog.sina.com.cn/TimesBaby)

当蓝票公司在1972年收购喜斯糖果的时候，糖果的年销售量为1600万镑（蓝票公司当时由我和查理控制，后来将其并入巴郡）。2007年，喜斯销量为3100万镑，年增长率仅为2%。然而，由喜斯家族经过五十年缔造起来，随后查克"胡金斯和布莱德"金斯特不断巩固的持续竞争优势，已经为巴郡创造了非凡的价值。

We bought See's for $25 million when its sales were $30 million and pre-tax earnings were less than $5 million. The capital then required to conduct the business was $8 million. (Modest seasonal debt was also needed for a few months each year.) Consequently, the company was earning 60% pre-tax on invested capital. Two factors helped to minimize the funds required for operations. First, the product was sold for cash, and that eliminated accounts receivable. Second, the production and distribution cycle was short, which minimized inventories.(陈宏杰博客   blog.sina.com.cn/TimesBaby)

我们花了2500万美元来收购喜斯，而当时它的销售额仅为3000万，税前收入还不到500万，开展业务还需资金800万（一年中有几个月还可能出现一些季节性负债）。但结果，公司的税前资本收益率达到了60%。有两个因素有助于把运营所需资金控制在最低的水平上：首先，产品出售可以带来现金流，第二，生产和配送周期短，最大限度地缩减了库存。(陈宏杰博客   blog.sina.com.cn/TimesBaby)

Last year See's sales were $383 million, and pre-tax profits were $82 million. The capital now required to run the business is $40 million. This means we have had to reinvest only $32 million since 1972 to handle the modest physical growth – and somewhat immodest financial growth – of the business.(陈宏杰博客   blog.sina.com.cn/TimesBaby)

去年喜斯的销售额为3.83亿，税前收入8200万。现在公司的运营成本是4000万。这意味着从1972年到现在，我们只花了3200万美元进行再投资，就完成了这种平稳的规模增长和某种意义上平稳的财务增长。

In the meantime pre-tax earnings have totaled $1.35 billion. All of that, except for the $32 million, has been sent to Berkshire (or, in the early years, to Blue Chip). After paying corporate taxes on the profits, we have used the rest to buy other attractive businesses. Just as Adam and Eve kick-started an activity that led to six billion humans, See's has given birth to multiple new streams of cash for us. (The biblical command to “be fruitful and multiply” is one we take seriously at Berkshire.)(陈宏杰博客   blog.sina.com.cn/TimesBaby)

同时，税前收入总计已经达到了13.5亿。除去3200万，其它的利润尽归巴郡（之前归蓝票）。我们用税后的收益来收购其他具有吸引力的企业。就像亚当和夏娃搞了一项产生60亿人口的活动，喜斯为我们开辟了更多的新财源。圣经的训诫“多生多产，填满地球”在巴郡得到了认真的履行。

There aren't many See's in Corporate America. Typically, companies that increase their earnings from $5 million to $82 million require, say, $400 million or so of capital investment to finance their growth. That’s because growing businesses have both working capital needs that increase in proportion to sales growth and significant requirements for fixed asset investments.(陈宏杰博客   blog.sina.com.cn/TimesBaby)

在美国，像喜斯这样的公司并不多。一般来讲，一个企业的利润从500万增至8200万，需要大约4亿的资本投入。这是因为成长中的公司不仅需要维持其销售增长的运营成本，还有大量的固定资产投入需求。

A company that needs large increases in capital to engender its growth may well prove to be a satisfactory investment. There is, to follow through on our example, nothing shabby about earning $82 million pre-tax on $400 million of net tangible assets. But that equation for the owner is vastly different from the See’s situation. It’s far better to have an ever-increasing stream of earnings with virtually no major capital requirements. Ask Microsoft or Google.

那种需要大幅增加资产才能满足发展需要的企业，或可视为一个好的投资标的。正像我们举的例子，从4亿的有形净资产中获得8200万的税前收益，这看上去也不错，但对于股东来说，这样的公司就和喜斯相差甚远了。一个不依靠巨量资金投入就能获得持续增长的公司显然要更好一些。在这方面，可以问问微软和Google。

One example of good, but far from sensational, business economics is our own FlightSafety. This company delivers benefits to its customers that are the equal of those delivered by any business that I know of. It also possesses a durable competitive advantage: Going to any other flight-training provider than the best is like taking the low bid on a surgical procedure.

一个可称其为不错而绝非卓越的例子，是我们的安飞公司。这个公司为其股东分发的红利不比我知道的其他任何一家公司少，它同样也拥有其持续竞争优势：不去选择最好的飞行培训公司，就像做手术去选价钱最低的医生一样。

Nevertheless, this business requires a significant reinvestment of earnings if it is to grow. When we purchased FlightSafety in 1996, its pre-tax operating earnings were $111 million, and its net investment in fixed assets was $570 million. Since our purchase, depreciation charges have totaled $923 million. But capital expenditures have totaled $1.635 billion, most of that for simulators to match the new airplane models that are constantly being introduced. (A simulator can cost us more than $12 million, and we have 273 of them.) Our fixed assets, after depreciation, now amount to $1.079 billion. Pre-tax operating earnings in 2007 were $270 million, a gain of $159 million since 1996. That gain gave us a good, but far from See’s-like, return on our incremental investment of $509 million.

然而，这样的公司需要把大量的收入拿来进行再投资以维持其护增长。1996年我们收购安飞时，其税前营收为1.11亿。在固定资产上的净投资为5.70亿。从我们收购那天开始到现在，资产折旧已经达到9.23亿。但资本支出已经达到了16.35亿，其中的绝大部分是有来配备仍在不断更新型号的飞机模拟器（一套模拟器成本超过1200万美元，安飞公司拥有273套）。我们的固定资产，折旧后总价值为10.9亿。2007年税前收入为2.70亿，同1996年相比增加了1.59亿，取得这样的成绩已经很好了，但对于我们来说显然远逊于喜斯。

陈宏杰博客  blog.sina.com.cn/timesbaby