高盛中国（高华）12日推出08年首选商品交易建议书，特别根据对未来一年不同商品的基本面、期限结构以及波动性的预测，建立的商品交易建议。原文较长，下面是内容简介：

2008问题与展望：熊市外表下的牛市

最近的市场下挫提供了买入机会

对需求的担忧与供应的增加在某种程度上促使高盛预计商品价格将从最近的高点回落，而这一变动已经在很大程度上实现了。尽管高盛最近下调了对经济增长的预测，但是对长期价格持续强劲的预期以及缓冲经济走软的其它供需因素引领其上调2008 年能源与农产品的价格预测。由于基本金属价格与工业周期的联系十分紧密，下调了2008 年基本金属的价格预测，但是仍然预计其价格可能于年底前达到历史高点水平。总而言之，大体上认为最近的市场下挫是商品领域的买入机会。

继续建议高配商品

将高盛标普指数总回报率预测从12.3%上调至16.1%。继续建议调高投资组合中商品的权重，在商品范围内调高能源的权重。

2008 Issues & Outlook: Bull in a bear's disguise

Bull in a bear's disguise

Demand concerns and rising supply in some cases had led us to expect a retrenchment in commodity prices from recent highs, which has already largely occurred. Despite recent downgrades of GS economic growth views,

xpectations of sustained strength in long-dated prices and other supply and demand drivers that provide offsets to the weaker economic backdrop are leading us to revise up our energy and agricultural price forecasts for 2008. As base metals are the commodities most closely tied to the industrial cycle, we are reducing our 2008 base metals forecasts, but still expect prices to reach historically high levels in some cases by year-end. Net, we generally view the recent sell-off as a buying opportunity across much of the commodity complex. We therefore maintain our recommendation for an overweight investment allocation to commodities and an overweight towards energy relative to the rest of the complex. We are also introducing our top commodity trades for 2008 that more specifically leverage our expectations of fundamentals, term structure and volatility across the different commodities in the coming year.

Commodity returns have been robust so far in 2007 with the S&P GSCITM total return index recently climbing to the highest level on record barring the hurricane-related spike in September 2005 (see Exhibit 1). As expected, petroleum has led the strong performance at the same time that agriculture and precious metals have also yielded double-digit positive returns. These gains dominated essentially flat industrial metals returns and moderately negative livestock returns.

Energy: It's all about the back end

Industrial Metals: In like a bear, out like a bull

Precious Metals: Up goes the dollar, down goes gold

Agriculture: Beans in the 'teens?

Livestock: Rising feed prices will likely limit upside