Most of my recent scholarly papers are available as Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Here, there is a complete listing of my Discussion Papers (1985–present). They are are available for download in as pdf files.

To get my earlier papers, one might consult the Publication List, button below, to identify names of papers and journals, and one can then find many of these papers on JSTOR. One may also find many of my papers online at the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Most of my recent scholarly work is listed in the Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper series. A few are also available online here.

Valuation Ratios and the Long-Run Stock Market Outlook is a pdf file of a paper that John Campbell and I wrote in July 1997, which is based on our joint testimony before the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System December 3, 1996.

A paper I wrote in 1996, Price Earnings Ratios as Forecasters of Returns describes my outlook in 1996, just before the testimony at the Board of Governors. This paper is superseded by the "Valuation Ratios" paper, just above, that I wrote later with John Campbell.

Social Security and Institutions for Intergenerational Intragenerational and International Risk Sharing, Carnegie Rochester Conference, April 1998. [CFDP 1185] (abstract)

Social Security and Risks to Our Incomes in the Long Term, McKenna Lecture, Saint Vincent's College, January 27, 1999.

Public attitudes towards the stock market in the summer of 1997 are analyzed in an article in Intellectual Capital.

Macro Markets and Financial Security, with Stefano Athanasoulis and Eric van Wincoop, Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, March 1999.