过去有一首老童谣唱道：“在战场上能打还能逃的人，有机会再上战场。”我愿为投机者改成：“交易不当而跑开的人，只要留一口气，改天还能再进场（并赚钱）。”

逆势交易等于迎头面对一辆加速驶来的列车！所以下一次你在考虑建立某个仓位时，或本来就有某个仓位，不知道该平掉，还是加仓交易时，不妨换个实际生活中的角度来想：顺势＝你的朋友；逆势＝迎头面对一辆加速驶来的列车！你会怎么选择？

我们暂且不谈政治和经济，不可否认的一个真理是：市场确实有一半左右的时间是在下跌，而且“滑的比飞的还快”。有经验和成功的交易者知道，下跌的市场要比上涨的市场，赚钱更稳而且更快。

一般交易者说某市场“不错”时，其实他的意思是说市场上涨，而他也正好做多。当他说市场“很糟”时，其实他的意思是说市场下跌，而他正好不幸做多。似乎不管市场趋势如何，反正他就是做多。但是在明眼人都知道的空头市场里，他却套牢在亏钱的仓位里，欲哭无泪。

如果买盘多于卖盘，价格就会上涨；卖盘多于买盘，价格就会下跌。任何时段内，这句话都正确，不管那是非常短的时间，还是中期到长期。具体说，一旦某个主趋势形成，它会自己积累能量，根据自己的能量加速或减速。比如在大多头趋势中，不管空头交易者是从技术分析看出市场真正的趋势，还是从空头仓的追缴保证金通知书中明白的，总之他们都要赶快平仓，重新建立多头仓。换仓的结果就是造成市场中的卖单减少，也就是说多头市场的能量增加了。价格会沿着阻力最小的途径——就是上涨。同样，在大空头市场中，价格下跌时，也会积累能量。多头交易者即使心不甘情不愿，最终还是要平掉亏钱的仓位，甚至还得做空。这样就为空头市场积累了能量。在大空头市场，当多头持有岌岌可危仓位的时间拖的越久，空头对他们的惩罚越狠，跌势就会越猛，跌幅也会越深。多头的悲惨下场是不可避免的。专业交易者明白这个道理，他们期待这样的机会，当多头疲惫不堪时，或者他们发现多头的卖出止损点更低时，他们就会无情地发动攻击。

当你所建立的仓位正好是顺势的，而且坐拥利润，不管仓位多大，都不嫌大；相反如果你持有的是亏损，风雨飘摇中的逆势仓位，那么不管它们多小，都嫌太多。当然了，持有较大顺势仓位的交易者，还是要跟多次发生的技术性回调（反弹）搏斗。不过这是预料中的事，不足为奇，他应该有足够的财力和定力，渡过这些危机动荡的时刻。

几乎每个投机者或早或晚都想过这个问题，那就是成功的交易大户何以能够建立庞大的仓位（数百份合约或更多），最后大赚一笔。与此同时，绝大多数的投机者都只持有很小的仓位，而且老是买错卖错，为这样的经验付出了高昂的代价。两者最显著的差别（这一点值得我们好好想一想），在于有经验，成功的交易者总是能够研判出市场什么时候有趋势（适于建立顺势而为的仓位），什么时候是横向盘整（最好缩手观望，或者逆势交易，短线进出）。

记忆所及，最长的空头秀当属1978年——1985年的外汇跌势（美元的多头市场）：瑞士法郎从69.00跌到35.00，德国马克从58.00跌到29.00，英镑从2.40跌到1.05左右。虽然有这么长时间的空头市场，我们却不断见到有人在抄底，专业和经纪行的投机者一直在追逐一个大奖——强势美元趋势反转。这7年时间内，全世界密切注意和等待外汇见底的交易者人数，可能比其它任何种类的期货都要多。交易者必须面对的关键问题，以及将来在类似的情况中必须继续面对的关键问题是下面这些：

1.Were the currency markets forming a significant reversal from down to up at various times during the seven-year bear market?

1.这7年的空头市场期间内不同的时间中，外汇市场是不是由下而上形成显著的反转？

2.How could the operator have participated in such a reversal while maintaining reasonable loss protection in the event, as actually occurred, the reversal signals were false and the market continued to decline?

2.交易者要怎么参与这种反转，同时保持合理的止损保护，以免反转信号是错误的，市场最后还是继续下跌？事实上这样的事就曾经发生过

3.Assuming the trader had reversed to long and had been stopped out, how could he have gotten back short in conformity with the ongoing bear trend?

3.假如交易者已经转而做多，而且因止损而平仓，那么他要怎样回到空方阵营，继续在空头市场中玩下去？

I have often noted that major, long-standing trends, particularly downtrends, do not reverse very quickly. They generally take an intolerable amount of time and are accompanied by innumerable false signals that cause many operators to be whipsawed in and out to an exasperating degree. However, there is a logical way to shift the odds a bit more in your favor. Avoid trying to pick off tops and bottoms because, at best, it is a subjective and arbitrary way to time trades. Moreover, it hardly ever succeeds. Rather, you must exercise the patience and discipline to wait until your technical indicators or system tell you that the flip has occurred, at which point you should get aboard in the direction of the newly emerged trend. If your indicator reverses you, protect the new position with a reasonable stop. This could also be a reversal stop to return you into the ongoing trend if the reversal turns out to be false and untenable.

一再指出，长期的大趋势，尤其是下跌趋势，不会很快反转。它们常常会维持一段令人难以忍受的时间，伴随难以计数的假信号，造成很多交易者惨遭洗盘出场。但是，我们还是能够找到合乎逻辑的方式，使得运气稍微对你有利。你一定要避免去抓头部和底部，因为那顶多是种主观和没有根据的进出方式。此外，这种做法很少能够成功。还有，你必须发挥耐心和严守纪律，等候你的技术指标或系统告诉你反转已发生，在这个时候才跳上新出现的趋势。如果你的指标带着你走向另一个方向，也应该用合理的止损保护你建立的新仓位。万一反转是虚假的，无法维持的，反转止损也能把你带回持续进行中的趋势。

In the specific case of the currencies and their seven-year bear market, we discreetly avoided probing for the bottom so long as markets continued to slide within a broad succession of lower highs and lower lows. There was no logical way to form a sufficiently strong prediction of a market reversal on which to place a large bet. Overeager traders had been chopped up for years trying unsuccessfully to do just that. Instead, we approached these markets in the following manner: At each point where it appeared the market might be making a bottom (or a flip from short to long), we identified the respective resistance points. Each currency market would have to close through these in order to justify in our analysis that the trend had flipped. We had a number of close calls and “almosts,” but as you can see from the accompanying long-term chart of the Swiss franc (Figure 9-2), the trend was clearly down. No rally high surpassed any previous rally high until first half of 1985, after the market hit bottom around the 34.00 level. One of the long-term trading systems we follow gave an initial buy signal on March 12, 1985, and a subsequent buy signal on June 13 of the same year. This analysis was further confirmed by our technical advisory, issued after the first rally from 34.00 to 41.00 and the subsequent 50 percent retracement to the 37.00 level. It suggested the purchase of Swiss at 38.05 stop, close only (basis long-term weekly). We would wait to buy on the failure of the reaction and on the resumption of the rally.

以上面外汇长达7年的空头市场来说，只要市场继续在一个宽广，连续的区间内下滑，也就是，这个区间内一个高点比一个高点低，一底比一底低。那我们就要十分小心谨慎，避免去抄底。我们找不到合乎逻辑的方式，提出强而有力的论点，去预测市场的反转点，从而下很大的赌注在那一点上。一些过分急切的交易者，一直想这么做，多年来都徒劳无功。相反，我们要按下面所述的方式去面对市场：在市场可能筑底（或者由空翻多）的每一点，我们会找出相对的个别压力点。每一个外汇市场收盘价都必须站上这些点，才能在我们的分析中合乎趋势已反转的论调。我们有很多千钧一发或“差一点”的时刻，但是你从所附的瑞士法郎长期趋势图（图9-2），可以看出趋势明显向下。1985年上半年市场在34.00左右触底以前，没有一次反弹的高点能够超越上一次反弹的高点。我们所用的一个长期交易系统，在1985年3月12日发出了初步的买入信号，同年6月13日发出了后续的买入信号。当价格从34.00反弹到41.00之后，接下来出现50%的回调跌到37.00，我们的技术顾问确认可以买入了。以38.05的收盘价为买点（基于长期周线图）。我们等着在回调结束和反弹恢复时进场买入。

FIGURE 9-2 Long-Term Monthly (Nearest Future) Swiss Franc

Here is the quintessential long-term roller-coaster market. The Swiss franc topped out around the 69.00 level in late 1978, remaining within the major bear trend until first-half 1985. This seven-year-long bear market was a near total disaster for the majority of public speculators who were committed to the bull side regardless of market trend. By the time the trend reversed to north in mid-1985, most speculators missed the turn. They were too exhausted, both financially and emotionally, from fighting the markets with their losing long positions over the past several years. A number of public commodity funds, however, scored impressive profits on short currency positions during this period.

图9-2　瑞士法郎（最近期）长期月线图

这是个典型，过山车的长期市场趋势。1978年底瑞士法郎在69.00左右做头反转，1985年上半年以前，一直处在大空头趋势里面。大部分投机大众不管市场趋势，执意做多，这7年的空头市场几乎是一场浩劫。1985年年中，趋势反转向上，大多数的投机者错过了列车。不管是在感情上，还是在财力上，他们都已经筋疲力尽。过去几年，他们持有亏钱的多头仓，已经无力跟市场战斗。但是在这段期间内，很多公共商品基金因做空外汇，得到了可观的利润。

Even after taking a position on a projected trend reversal, it is necessary to protect the new position with reasonable stops. So what is reasonable? That is a function of the trader's personal pain level. In my book, it can be set at anywhere from 50 to 100 percent of the margin requirement which, in actual dollar terms, is from $600 to around $1,500. Obviously, how much you are willing to risk is clearly related to how much you logically project to win. So, if you are a very long-term operator with a history of taking thousands from a winning long-term move, you can obviously afford a somewhat higher risk on a given position than a trader who is quicker to jump out.

预估趋势会反转，建立了新仓位之后，有必要用合理的止损来保护新的仓位。那什么才叫做合理？这要看交易者个人可以忍受多大程度的“痛苦”而定。在我的书中，可以设定为保证金的50%到100%，换算成金额，也就是600元到1500元。很明显的，你愿意冒多大的风险，跟你预算获胜的概率多大有关系。所以说，如果你是个非常长线的交易者，一向能从赚钱的长线交易中赚到数千元，那显然你可以比那些时进时出的人承受更大的风险。

We have all seen too many examples of antitrend trading. The same goes for top or bottom picking against major trending markets, where the operator loses - $15,000 or more per contract - all out of proportion to what he could reasonably have expected to win. And, as you can surmise, after taking a bath of that magnitude, he isn’t likely to have much enthusiasm for getting back aboard when the market signals its next turn, even though this is just when he should be back in. But what if, instead of having lost several thousand per contract, he had lost under a thousand? He could then patiently wait for the next opportunity as signaled by his system or other technical method. He would again risk another thousand on the new position. Assuming his system or technical method was viable, he would ultimately score on the position, notwithstanding the few small losses along the way.

我们都看过许许多多逆势交易的例子。同样的，无数人硬要在趋势明显的市场中抓头部和底部，输掉的钱跟他可以合理预期赚到的钱根本不成比例——每份合约亏15000元或更多。而且，你可以想象，一旦亏掉那么多，当市场发出下一个趋势的信号时，这是真实的信号，亏损严重的人也不会有太大的兴趣。但是如果不是每手输掉几千元，而是不到1000元，情况会怎么样？他可以耐心地等待系统或其它技术方法发出的信号。他可以在新的仓位再拿1000元去冒险。假使他的系统或技术方法是可行的，那么迟早他会在自己的仓位上赚大钱，而不必计较以前亏损的小钱。

Remember the old children’s rhyme, “He who fights and runs away lives to fight another day.” I would dedicate to the speculator a revised version: “He who has a bad trade and runs away, lives to trade (and make profits) another day.”

过去有一首老童谣唱道：“在战场上能打还能逃的人，有机会再上战场。”我愿为投机者改成：“交易不当而跑开的人，只要留一口气，改天还能再进场（并赚钱）。”