加载中…M0、M1、M2、GDP、股票市值有啥关系吗？
(2011-10-10 20:33:58)
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杂谈 |
分类： 专题知识 |
在徐星论坛看到一个网友试图讨论M2与市值的关系，忽然想起来以前做过类似的研究，如下：
从中国过去十几年M0、M1、M2、GDP的关系看，不存在线性关系，长期看似乎存在某种较为复杂的指数关系。
下图是1999年至今M0、M1、M2、GDP的ln图，斜率并不相同，相当于是四辆加速度不同的汽车，比较他们的当前时速，或者时速的比值没有任何实际意义。
在资产证券化率相同的国家，如果GDP与市值存在长期收敛的线性关系(根据厦门大学郑正龙教授的统计)，那么结合上述分析，M0、M1、M2与市值将没有任何线性关系。用他们的比值来说事儿没啥意义。
http://s13/middle/4c36db8fnaef11927fa3c&690
上图的原始数据来源于央行和国家统计局的网站，经手工整理合成为如下电子表格，对数值取ln后得到上图：
| 年代 | 流通中货币 （M0） |
国内生产总值 | |
Money & Quasi-money |
| 1999.12 | 13455.50 | 89677.1 | 45837.30 | 117638.10 |
| 2000.01 | 16093.90 | 99214.6 | 46570.10 | 118907.80 |
| 2000.02 | 13983.00 | 99214.6 | 44679.20 | 119353.60 |
| 2000.03 | 13235.40 | 99214.6 | 45158.45 | 120399.58 |
| 2000.04 | 13675.50 | 99214.6 | 46319.03 | 121914.77 |
| 2000.05 | 13075.45 | 99214.6 | 46490.23 | 121902.65 |
| 2000.06 | 13006.04 | 99214.6 | 48024.40 | 124486.78 |
| 2000.07 | 13156.47 | 99214.6 | 47803.09 | 124192.78 |
| 2000.08 | 13378.68 | 99214.6 | 48885.38 | 125673.26 |
| 2000.09 | 13894.69 | 99214.6 | 50616.89 | 128352.61 |
| 2000.10 | 13589.45 | 99214.6 | 49952.84 | 127432.53 |
| 2000.11 | 13877.70 | 99214.6 | 50787.49 | 128887.40 |
| 2000.12 | 14652.65 | 99214.6 | 53147.15 | 132487.52 |
| 2001.01 | 17018.98 | 109655.2 | 54406.23 | 135685.99 |
| 2001.02 | 14910.39 | 109655.2 | 51997.68 | 134390.49 |
| 2001.03 | 14362.12 | 109655.2 | 53033.36 | 136915.12 |
| 2001.04 | 14622.99 | 109655.2 | 53261.32 | 138121.03 |
| 2001.05 | 13942.28 | 109655.2 | 52542.99 | 137219.27 |
| 2001.06 | 13943.44 | 109655.2 | 55187.36 | 141885.60 |
| 2001.07 | 14071.62 | 109655.2 | 53502.80 | 140076.48 |
| 2001.08 | 14370.13 | 109655.2 | 55808.92 | 143787.30 |
| 2001.09 | 14370.13 | 109655.2 | 55808.92 | 143787.30 |
| 2001.10 | 14484.61 | 109655.2 | 56114.90 | 146157.58 |
| 2001.11 | 14484.61 | 109655.2 | 56114.90 | 146157.58 |
| 2001.12 | 15688.80 | 109655.2 | 59871.59 | 152888.50 |
| 2002.01 | 16727.06 | 120332.7 | 60577.23 | 157853.45 |
| 2002.02 | 16642.65 | 120332.7 | 58703.97 | 159182.97 |
| 2002.03 | 15545.47 | 120332.7 | 59475.67 | 162300.93 |
| 2002.04 | 15864.91 | 120332.7 | 60462.04 | 162825.22 |
| 2002.05 | 15243.74 | 120332.7 | 61247.53 | 164268.36 |
| 2002.06 | 15098.04 | 120332.7 | 63144.69 | 167869.41 |
| 2002.07 | 15358.29 | 120332.7 | 63488.41 | 169122.95 |
| 2002.08 | 15713.28 | 120332.7 | 64869.50 | 171524.20 |
| 2002.09 | 16234.11 | 120332.7 | 66800.29 | 175254.87 |
| 2002.10 | 16015.18 | 120332.7 | 67100.77 | 175534.74 |
| 2002.11 | 16346.89 | 120332.7 | 67993.28 | 178018.43 |
| 2002.12 | 17278.43 | 120332.7 | 70882.19 | 183246.94 |
| 2003.01 | 21245.12 | 135822.8 | 72406.05 | 188918.38 |
| 2003.02 | 17937.58 | 135822.8 | 69757.05 | 188444.37 |
| 2003.03 | 17106.89 | 135822.8 | 71439.21 | 192832.44 |
| 2003.04 | 17441.44 | 135822.8 | 71321.54 | 194476.98 |
| 2003.05 | 17115.34 | 135822.8 | 72778.15 | 197811.96 |
| 2003.06 | 16957.18 | 135822.8 | 75923.52 | 203071.74 |
| 2003.07 | 17362.40 | 135822.8 | 76153.04 | 204381.10 |
| 2003.08 | 17607.08 | 135822.8 | 77033.30 | 208692.40 |
| 2003.09 | 18306.62 | 135822.8 | 79164.14 | 211611.50 |
| 2003.10 | 18250.94 | 135822.8 | 80267.37 | 212505.40 |
| 2003.11 | 18439.85 | 135822.8 | 80815.22 | 214358.84 |
| 2003.12 | 19746.23 | 135822.8 | 84118.81 | 219226.81 |
| 2004.01 | 22287.43 | 159878.3 | 83805.90 | 225101.93 |
| 2004.02 | 19893.44 | 159878.3 | 83556.43 | 227050.72 |
| 2004.03 | 19297.43 | 159878.3 | 85815.57 | 231654.60 |
| 2004.04 | 19878.40 | 159878.3 | 85603.64 | 233627.86 |
| 2004.05 | 19048.43 | 159878.3 | 86780.37 | 234842.40 |
| 2004.06 | 19017.58 | 159878.3 | 88627.14 | 238427.49 |
| 2004.07 | 19048.43 | 159878.3 | 86780.37 | 234842.40 |
| 2004.08 | 19517.94 | 159878.3 | 89125.33 | 239729.19 |
| 2004.09 | 20524.00 | 159878.3 | 90439.00 | 243757.00 |
| 2004.10 | 20078.00 | 159878.3 | 90782.00 | 243740.00 |
| 2004.11 | 20209.25 | 159878.3 | 92387.13 | 247135.58 |
| 2004.12 | 21468.30 | 159878.3 | 95970.82 | 253207.70 |
| 2005.01 | 24015.41 | 184937.4 | 97079.03 | 257708.47 |
| 2005.02 | 22667.97 | 184937.4 | 92814.95 | 259357.29 |
| 2005.03 | 21238.95 | 184937.4 | 94743.19 | 264588.94 |
| 2005.04 | 21666.56 | 184937.4 | 94593.72 | 266992.66 |
| 2005.05 | 20811.59 | 184937.4 | 95802.01 | 269240.49 |
| 2005.06 | 20848.76 | 184937.4 | 98601.25 | 275785.53 |
| 2005.07 | 21171.20 | 184937.4 | 97674.10 | 276966.28 |
| 2005.08 | 21351.56 | 184937.4 | 99377.70 | 281288.22 |
| 2005.09 | 22272.92 | 184937.4 | 100964.00 | 287438.27 |
| 2005.10 | 21982.98 | 184937.4 | 101751.98 | 287591.61 |
| 2005.11 | 22409.39 | 184937.4 | 104125.78 | 292350.39 |
| 2005.12 | 24031.67 | 184937.4 | 107278.57 | 298755.48 |
| 2006.01 | 29310.37 | 216314.4 | 107250.68 | 303571.65 |
| 2006.02 | 24482.02 | 216314.4 | 104357.08 | 304516.27 |
| 2006.03 | 23472.03 | 216314.4 | 106737.08 | 310490.65 |
| 2006.04 | 24155.73 | 216314.4 | 106389.11 | 313702.34 |
| 2006.05 | 23465.32 | 216314.4 | 109219.22 | 316709.81 |
| 2006.06 | 23469.08 | 216314.4 | 112342.36 | 322756.35 |
| 2006.07 | 23752.59 | 216314.4 | 112653.04 | 324010.76 |
| 2006.08 | 24185.36 | 216314.4 | 114845.67 | 327885.67 |
| 2006.09 | 25687.38 | 216314.4 | 116814.10 | 331865.36 |
| 2006.10 | 24964.16 | 216314.4 | 118359.96 | 332747.17 |
| 2006.11 | 25527.25 | 216314.4 | 121644.95 | 337504.15 |
| 2006.12 | 27072.62 | 216314.4 | 126028.05 | 345577.91 |
| 2007.01 | 27949.13 | 265810.3 | 128484.06 | 351498.77 |
| 2007.02 | 30627.93 | 265810.3 | 126258.08 | 358659.25 |
| 2007.03 | 27387.95 | 265810.3 | 127881.31 | 364104.66 |
| 2007.04 | 27813.88 | 265810.3 | 127678.33 | 367326.45 |
| 2007.05 | 26727.97 | 265810.3 | 130275.80 | 369718.15 |
| 2007.06 | 26881.09 | 265810.3 | 135847.40 | 377832.15 |
| 2007.07 | 27326.26 | 265810.3 | 136237.43 | 383884.88 |
| 2007.08 | 27822.39 | 265810.3 | 140993.21 | 387205.04 |
| 2007.09 | 29030.58 | 265810.3 | 142591.57 | 393098.91 |
| 2007.10 | 28317.78 | 265810.3 | 144649.33 | 394204.17 |
| 2007.11 | 28987.92 | 265810.3 | 148009.82 | 399757.91 |
| 2007.12 | 30334.32 | 265810.3 | 152519.17 | 403401.30 |
| 2008.01 | 36673.15 | 314045.4 | 154872.59 | 417846.17 |
| 2008.02 | 32454.47 | 314045.4 | 150177.88 | 421037.84 |
| 2008.03 | 30433.07 | 314045.4 | 150867.47 | 423054.53 |
| 2008.04 | 30789.61 | 314045.4 | 151694.91 | 429313.72 |
| 2008.05 | 30169.30 | 314045.4 | 153344.75 | 436221.60 |
| 2008.06 | 30181.32 | 314045.4 | 154820.15 | 443141.02 |
| 2008.07 | 30687.19 | 314045.4 | 154992.44 | 446362.17 |
| 2008.08 | 30851.62 | 314045.4 | 156889.92 | 448846.68 |
| 2008.09 | 31724.88 | 314045.4 | 155748.97 | 452898.71 |
| 2008.10 | 31317.84 | 314045.4 | 157194.36 | 453133.32 |
| 2008.11 | 31607.36 | 314045.4 | 157826.63 | 458644.66 |
| 2008.12 | 34218.96 | 314045.4 | 166217.13 | 475166.60 |
| 2009.01 | 41082.37 | 340506.9 | 165214.34 | 496135.31 |
| 2009.02 | 35141.64 | 340506.9 | 166149.60 | 506708.07 |
| 2009.03 | 33746.42 | 340506.9 | 176541.13 | 530626.71 |
| 2009.04 | 34257.27 | 340506.9 | 178213.57 | 540481.21 |
| 2009.05 | 33559.52 | 340506.9 | 182025.58 | 548263.51 |
| 2009.06 | 33640.98 | 340506.9 | 193138.15 | 568916.20 |
| 2009.07 | 34239.30 | 340506.9 | 195889.27 | 573102.85 |
| 2009.08 | 34406.62 | 340506.9 | 200394.83 | 576698.95 |
| 2009.09 | 36787.89 | 340506.9 | 201708.14 | 585405.34 |
| 2009.10 | 35730.23 | 340506.9 | 207545.74 | 586643.29 |
| 2009.11 | 36343.86 | 340506.9 | 212493.20 | 594604.72 |
| 2009.12 | 38246.97 | 340506.9 | 221445.81 | 610224.52 |
| 2010.01 | 40758.58 | 397983.0 | 229588.98 | 625609.29 |
| 2010.02 | 42865.79 | 397983.0 | 224286.95 | 636072.26 |
| 2010.03 | 39080.58 | 397983.0 | 229397.93 | 649947.46 |
| 2010.04 | 39657.54 | 397983.0 | 233909.76 | 656561.22 |
| 2010.05 | 38652.97 | 397983.0 | 236497.88 | 663351.37 |
| 2010.06 | 38904.85 | 397983.0 | 240580.00 | 673921.72 |
| 2010.07 | 39543.16 | 397983.0 | 240664.07 | 674051.48 |
| 2010.08 | 39922.76 | 397983.0 | 244340.64 | 687506.92 |
| 2010.09 | 41854.41 | 397983.0 | 243821.90 | 696471.50 |
| 2010.10 | 41646.21 | 397983.0 | 253313.17 | 699776.74 |
| 2010.11 | 42252.16 | 397983.0 | 259420.32 | 710339.03 |
| 2010.12 | 44628.17 | 397983.0 | 266621.54 | 725851.79 |
| 2011.01 | 58063.94 | 463650.2 | 261765.01 | 733884.83 |
| 2011.02 | 47270.24 | 463650.2 | 259200.50 | 736130.86 |
| 2011.03 | 44845.22 | 463650.2 | 266255.48 | 758130.88 |
| 2011.04 | 45489.03 | 463650.2 | 266766.91 | 757384.56 |
| 2011.05 | 44602.83 | 463650.2 | 269289.63 | 763409.22 |
| 2011.06 | 44477.80 | 463650.2 | 274662.57 | 780820.85 |
| 2011.07 | 45183.10 | 463650.2 | 270545.65 | 772923.65 |
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