加载中…60条金牛
(2009-10-03 11:18:16)
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中国牛气60条杂谈 |
分类： 故垒西边－体验美国 |
- 30 GREAT YEARS – After a difficult 30 years, China has had 30 great years of economic reform and momentum. This is why it bounced back so quickly from the global crisis.
- REAL GROWTH: China’s growth is real and sustainable and increasingly driven by domestic consumption. Domestic consumption was the biggest driver of GDP growth in 2008, contributing 4.4 percentage points to the overall GDP growth rate of 11.4% for 2008.
- NATIONAL BALANCE SHEET – China has approximately $2.2 trillion of foreign reserves and public debt is only 16.2% of China’s GDP, ranking it 101st in the world for debt as a percentage of GDP.
- GDP - China has the world's highest gdp growth and should surpass the US as #1 economy in the world within the next 15-20 years.
- STABLE GOVERNMENT - China has witnessed decades of peaceful transitions from Deng to Jiang and from Jiang to Hu. There is no real danger of regime change anytime soon.
- GLOBAL RECOVERY LEADER – China has arguably handled the global crisis better than any other country in the world. China posted GDP growth of 6.1% in Q1 and 7.9% in Q2; The World Bank predicts 6.5% GDP growth for China compared to a 1.7% contraction globally.
- NIMBLE/FAST REPONSE TO CRISES – In addition to its rapid response to the global crisis, China has demonstrated an ability to rally domestic support in times of natural disasters such as the Sichuan earthquake, the winter storms in 2008 and SARS in 2003.
- STIMULUS - Fast and effective, the four trillion RMB ($586 billion) fiscal stimulus has more than propped China up in the global crisis. China has spent the equivalent to 20% of its overall GDP.
- LOOSE MONETARY POLICY. China will continue to be liberal with its monetary policy, further stimulating growth.
- BRIDGES TO SOMEWHERE – Enormous investments in infrastructure will lead to great productivity gains. The China road length per capita figure has more than doubled since the 1970s and, over the past decade, has been growing at an average annual rate of 16%.
- EXPORTCONSUMPTION – While the previous 30 years of China’s growth have been focused on exports, future growth is aimed at unleashing pent-up consumer demand. Early signs point to the development of a robust domestic consumer economy.
- NEW GENERATION OF CONSUMERS – There has been a cultural shift among China’s young generation towards "making more, spending more and saving less." Unlike their parents, Chinese people born after 1980 have only known prosperity and growth. That change is dramatically affecting consumption habits.
- POPULATION = HUGE MARKET- China is one of the few places on earth where quantity becomes quality. It has a population of 1.33 billion (as of July 2009) with a 0.65% anticipated yearly growth rate.
- SAVINGS - (Chinese saving rate is around 40% compared to around 5% in the US.) - Retail bank deposits in China total more than $3 trillion, almost 50% of US retail deposits. There is still lots of money on the sidelines that can be tapped.
- GROWING INFLUENCE IN THE WORLD – Recent events like the 2008 Beijing Olympics and the upcoming Shanghai 2010 World Expo have raised China’s global profile. That combined with an attractive growing economy and a tremendous national balance sheet means that China’s voice will only get stronger over time.
- NATURAL RESOURCES: China is taking advantage of lower global prices and securing access to natural resources all over the world. This will support domestic growth for years to come.
- BANK STRENGTH – Chinese banks have far healthier balance sheets than their Western counterparts. Multiple China-based banks are among the top in the world by market capitalization, such as BoC, CCB, ICBC. NPLs, like in the past, are likely to be swept under the rug over time.
- HOUSING BOOM - The real estate "market" has only a dozen years of history, and was legalized by a State Council regulation published only in 1998. China has just come through its first real estate boom-bust cycle, and the market is now strengthening in a more stable way
- RMB APPRECIATION - The Chinese currency will strengthen over time and only after China has comfortably switched away from an export led economy.
- 2ND AND 3RD TIER CITY STRENGTH – The recovery has been led by 2nd and 3rd tier cities. The government’s vast efforts on inland/western development has led to GDP gains in inland provinces that have significantly outstripped traditional coastal counterparts. 13 provincial level regions reported double-digit GDP growth in 2008, with Inner Mongolia region leading with 16.2% GDP growth compared to 7% for the coastal Shanghai region
- DOMESTIC STOCK MARKET STRENGTH - The Chinese government is actively supporting the development of its stock markets, including the launch of GEM (China's Nasdaq). Also, as China is such a huge player in commodities globally, they will likely be major players with their own commodities exchange.
- PRIVATE INVESTMENT GROWTH - China is embracing policies to encourage private investment to drive real growth and become less reliant on state support. The latest private equity industry policies are good examples of the pro-private investment mandate.
- DIVERSIFYING INVESTMENTS –China has been slowly shifting its overseas investments to lessen its dependence on the U.S and Europe. Three focus areas include ensuring adequate, diversified supply of natural resources, diversifying foreign exchange holdings and finding new markets for Chinese exports.
- FDI STRENGTH – While inbound foreign direct investments (FDI) have been muted thus far this year, once multinational corporations (MNCs) recover from financial crisis, many will look to kick-start growth in China. We are already seeing this in 2H 2009. China is one of the greatest MNC growth engines of the future.
- TAX ADVANTAGE– Despite the relatively high official tax rates, enforcement has been lax. China won’t run out of bullets anytime soon. For example, China has no annual real estate tax or capital gains tax. The government has plenty of ways to throttle revenues in the future.
- SME (Small and Medium-sized Enterprises) PROSPERITY – SMEs have constituted an essential part of the national GDP as the government establishes policies and funds aimed at promoting innovation and entrepreneurship such as the China Torch Program and Innofund. China is no longer just a state-owned economy.
- INTERNET DOMINATION – With a total 338 million Internet users in 2009, which has tripled over the past three years, China has surpassed the US as the world’s largest Internet market. And the growth still has plenty of running room. Internet users are currently growing at a clip of 80mm new users per year.
- GREEN TECH LEADER - Government support/subsidy is key to being the world leader in green tech, and China clearly has that support. China is spending $30 billion on green technology as part of its current stimulus plan. One example of a new policy recently unveiled is the "Golden Sun" initiative in a bid to achieving its ambitious solar power generation target in 2011.
- MOBILE PHONE USERS. Approximately 800 million mobile phone subscribers and growing. A connected China is a powerful China.
- NEW WAY TO PAY – The introduction of credit cards, online payments, and debit cards are all helping to fuel consumption.
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