The Euro-American model of progress looks ever
weaker against the background of soaring food, oil and iron prices.
The extreme weather over the Lunar New Year, which caused chaos in
south China, highlighted the dangers of over-reliance on fossil
fuels. Without essentials like food, water, air and power,
“modernisation” turns into a
nightmare.
China has a population of 1.3 billion people,
of which 70% live in rural areas. The country must therefore choose
a green route to modernisation. The key to solve problems like
inflation, unemployment, energy shortages and pollution is to
develop ecological towns suited to the needs of China and a
sustainable rural economy. Take energy as an example: straw has
been traditionally used as fuel in rural China, but as living
standards have increased, so has the use of fossil fuels. Domestic
appliances, from colour TVs to air conditioners, are becoming ever
more popular and create rising energy demand. By 2020, it is
estimated that rural residents will consume the equivalent of 1.99
tonnes of standard coal every year; up from 0.62 tonnes and
accounting for 60% of China’s predicted increase in energy
consumption between 2005 and 2020. Our studies in villages in north
China have found that traditional straw-burning stoves are being
abandoned for their electric, gas or coal equivalents. The unused
straw is burnt in the fields, causing serious air pollution. On
September 26, 2007, a plane carrying a visiting Russian politician
was prevented from landing at Ji’nan airport due to the smoke from
straw-burning. This source of air pollution has
become a serious concern for China’s government and its
people.
As large numbers of rural residents flock to
urban areas, problems in the city are exacerbated and children and
the elderly are left in the villages. The countryside’s vitality
is being lost; surveys show people’s contentment falling. At the
same time, over-population and rapid urbanisation is affecting
social harmony and stability. Growth is restricted to the cities;
the villages, which form the foundations of Chinese society, are
ignored. The government issues a document every year stressing
rural issues – agriculture, villages and farmers’ issues – yet
the topics which get debated most at annual government meetings are
always urban ones: city housing, schools and healthcare, secondary
and tertiary industries and GDP growth. Investment is concentrated
in the cities and industry; there is nowhere near enough spending
on China’s
“New
Villages”.
The experience of developed countries shows
us that urbanised growth at the cost of natural resources and the
environment is not the best option. Global warming,
desertification, biodiversity loss, energy, water and food
shortages all make this clear. Developed countries account for only
15% of the world’s current population. If India and China –
around 48% of the world’s population – follow the same route, we
are heading for an ecological collapse. We should learn from
developed countries and seek a mode of urbanisation that will meet
China’s needs while following global trends in development.
China’s “New Village Strategy” is an important part
of this. We need to create villages with high-quality environments;
environmentally friendly industries; and modern technology,
transportation and communications. At the same time, the villages
should not require residents to change their lifestyles; they
should not require huge investment or effort to build. They should
allow modern people to live in harmony with
nature.
New technology and green industries can
increase agricultural profits in a sustainable fashion. If the
rural population is settled, other problems will disappear.
However, for this to happen, the central government must shift
investment from cities to villages. Some agricultural industries
are now located in the cities, but the work is done by farmers who
are forced to relocate, putting pressure on the transport system.
Strong financial support from central government could develop a
new, environmentally friendly, diverse and competitive agricultural
market. This will provide sustainable incomes; bring scattered
hamlets together into new, modern communities with urban and rural
areas; and create educated technical staff and business owners.
Many would return to the villages, reducing the pressure on
China’s cities.
We have been carrying out trials of
environmentally friendly agricultural technologies since 2005 in
Linyi, Shandong
province. For instance, waste straw can be processed into cattle
fodder and used to raise cows, which could increase farmers’
income. The cattle dung can then be transformed into methane to
provide energy and the by-products can be spread on the fields,
reducing the use of chemical fertiliser by 50% and increasing grain
output. We calculate that a company buying in fodder and straw will
get a 37% return on investment. However, after investing in the
necessary equipment, a company making use of these circular
processes can achieve a 120% return. The performance of green
companies can far outstrip that of traditional companies, without
producing pollution or relying on fossil fuels and chemical
fertilisers. These increased incomes will help revive the
country’s villages.
China’s economic development is forcing our
cities and villages further apart, causing great social discontent.
This is in part due to the primacy of industry over agriculture in
China and a lack of clarity and effective measures in the New
Village Strategy. If they want the strategy to succeed, central
government should put in the same effort in on rural issues as they
do on industry and create new villages that operate according to
ecological principles.
Aimin Tang is director of the China
Scientific Development Research Center; Gaoming Jiang is Chief
Researcher at the Chinese Academy of Science’s Botanical
Institute; Guanyi Dou is Head of Publicity at the Nantong branch of
the Jiusan
Society.