百亩庭中半是苔，桃花净尽菜花开。种桃道士归何处，前度刘郎今独来。

  雷曼破产已经一年，华尔街貌似卷土重来。

  银行的未来究竟会怎样？政府和人民大家还在想。范卫锋也颇读了不少宏文高论，空谈者众，有识者寡。 

  本期的《Economist》，洋洋洒洒详论此事。关于监管的未来、精品店的尝试、花旗高盛大摩等一众大鳄的应对策略，虽然言人人殊，却也有可读之处。行文尾处，Economist的判断是，However, the days when finance accounted for 40% of corporate America’s profits are over. Mr Winters thinks investment banks’ average return on equity will settle at a hardly dazzling 10-12% (though the best firms will do much better than that). At leverage of 15 times equity—the reduced level at which investment banks now typically operate—large parts of the fixed-income business fail to cover their cost of capital, reckons Brad Hintz, an analyst with Alliance Bernstein.（金融业占美国公司利润四成的时代已逝。Mr Winters君认为，投资银行的平均股权回报率，将介乎平淡的10--12%。在提高资本充足率、降低杠杆率以后，杠杆倍数会降到15倍左右。）

  学者专家、政客名嘴洋洋万言，固然不难。但是，投资者用自己的身家下注，情形完全不同。银行业这场70未有之大变局，才刚刚开始。欲围猎中原的投资者，已经在考虑布局之事了。

  范卫锋  http://blog.sina.com.cn/fanweifeng

2009-9-13