Will a Mark-to-Market Fix Save the Banks?
(2009-03-12 23:05:40)
FROM
TIME
To fix the
banks, Washington needs to get toxic assets off their balance
sheets. That's easily said but not so easily done.
One reason is an
obscure accounting rule that is the subject of intense lobbying by
representatives of the banking industry ahead of congressional
hearings on Thursday on the matter. A change to that rule could
drain some of the banks' red ink and possibly make it easier for
them to off-load the toxic assets. (See 25 people to blame for the
financial crisis.)
Fair-value
accounting, also known as mark-to-market accounting, requires banks
to price assets on their balance sheets according to what you can
sell them for on the open market. Seems logical enough. But how do
you mark to market when the market is effectively shut
down?
At the moment,
there are few buyers for the toxic assets that are poisoning
Citigroup, Bank of America and other major financial players. The
unsellable loans sit on the banks' balance sheets at a huge loss,
priced from zero to an optimistic 60% of what they might have sold
for before the crash.
It's not clear
where the banks are getting their prices. Some of the firms derive
the asset values from financial models. Others try to gauge how
much a group of subprime mortgage loans might be worth by looking
at a price index, called the ABX, of related credit-default
swaps.
But at a time of
pessimistic forecasts and rising fear, many toxic assets are
probably worth more than the bank models or credit-default-swap
indexes suggest. For example, a recent reading of the ABX index
puts the value of even the highest-rated subprime mortgage bonds
created in 2007 at only 27% of their precrunch prices. Yes,
Americans are behind on their mortgages, but even the most
pessimistic prognostications do not predict that 73% of home loans
will become worthless. (See pictures of the dangers of printing
money.)
That's why the
banking industry has been lobbying furiously to alter the
accounting requirement that forces it to continue to lower the
value of those assets, even though many of the loans that back
those bonds have yet to default and perhaps never will. Those
losses are amplifying the bottom-line losses at a number of the
nation's largest banks, wiping out their capital and putting them
ever closer to collapse.
A growing number
of regulators seem to think some relaxation of the rules may make
sense. The top U.S. banking supervisor, Comptroller of the Currency
John Dugan, tells TIME he is in favor of letting the banks mark
back up the value of some of their toxic assets. "I think there are
some changes that ought to be made," Dugan says. Mark-to-market
accounting is a problem, he says, for illiquid assets because
"those things have just stopped trading altogether." Dugan does not
support doing away with mark-to-market entirely; not even industry
lobbyists want that. But his deputy will argue at the congressional
hearings on Thursday that limited changes affecting the pricing of
illiquid toxic assets should be made.
Others seem to
be coming around to the banking industry's position. On Tuesday,
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said he would support changes
in pricing illiquid assets. Also this week, investor Warren Buffett
said in a CNBC interview that he would favor suspending the
mark-to-market rules. Even the Securities and Exchange Commission
(SEC), which has long backed these rules, recently asked the
Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB), a private group based
in Norwalk, Conn., that sets accounting rules in the U.S., to look
into the matter. FASB spokesman Neal McGarity says his organization
is doing that, but the banking industry is skeptical and wants more
pressure from the SEC. "SEC is refusing to act further on this
issue," says Scott Talbott, a top bank lobbyist. (See the top 10
financial-crisis buzzwords.)
Why the
resistance? The FASB and the SEC say mark-to-market accounting is a
key to the economy's transparency, and want to proceed cautiously
before changing the rules for illiquid assets. Investors are
already skeptical of bank stocks. Add more uncertainty to their
books, and the shares might fall further.
But with few
options left to save the banks, government officials might see a
change to mark-to-market rules as the most promising way remaining
to bolster the banks and their bottom lines. What's more, relaxing
the accounting requirement might make it easier for Treasury to
iron out a plan to remove toxic assets from bank balance
sheets.
The Treasury
Department is looking into purchasing those assets, whether through
a public-private partnership or through some other mechanism. Part
of the stumbling block is price. Paying more than the banks are
able to say the assets are worth would certainly lead to criticism
that the government is providing another massive handout to the
banking industry.
But if the banks
are allowed to market the toxic assets back up to their original
precrunch prices or close to them, that would give the Obama
Administration political cover: Treasury can come in and underbid
the value of the toxic assets, declaring before Congress and the
taxpayers that it is driving a hard bargain with the
banks.
What price might
Treasury offer? Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is doing a
"stress test" of the banks to determine how much capital they need
to survive. Whatever number that ends up being might be a good
price for the toxic assets. "We want to get the assets off our
books," says Talbott.
喜欢
0
赠金笔
加载中,请稍候......