钻石是全世界庄家控盘最成功的产业之一。巴菲特讲，买黄金的都是笨蛋。其实，买钻石的，才是笨蛋中的笨蛋。最近买了本书中信出版的《钻石的历史》，挺有意思。还有个电影《血钻》准备去看看。下面这篇文章是《economist》网站的最新文章，关于钻石行业。
DIAMONDS are back on the big screen. The stones serenaded by
Marilyn Monroe as a girl's best friend are now, however, portrayed
by Hollywood as Africa's worst enemies. Leonardo DiCaprio may win
an Academy Award for his performance in “Blood Diamond”, as a
mercenary hunting for the precious rocks during the war in Sierra
Leone in the 1990s. But in reality, the shape of the industry—which
produces an estimated $13 billion of rough stones and over $62
billion of diamond jewellery—has greatly changed since then.
Most of this transformation is due to the fact that De Beers, the
company that once controlled much of the supply of rough diamonds,
has loosened its grip, and a host of smaller producers are
emerging. Regulators in Europe and America and governments in
Africa have also promoted change, and “blood” diamonds have almost
disappeared. As a result, the diamond trade is starting to look
more like any other ordinary industry.
The shift, says Gareth Penny, De Beers' managing director, has been
“from a supply-controlled business to a demand-driven one.” In the
early 1990s the diamond giant was producing 45% of the world's
rough diamonds, but selling about 80% of the total supply from its
London marketing outfit, regulating the market through the careful
management of a large stockpile. But sitting on a big inventory was
not good for financial returns. At the same time regulators in
America and Europe were calling for more competition and stories
abounded about atrocities committed by diamond-financed rebels in
Africa.
After new management arrived in the late 1990s, De Beers changed
tack. Its main trading outfit stopped buying diamonds on the open
market. The company delisted in 2001 and is now owned by Anglo
American, the Oppenheimer family and the government of Botswana. It
has settled its long-standing antitrust dispute with American
regulators. And it has promised the European Union that it will
stop buying diamonds from ALROSA, the state-owned Russian firm that
extracts 20% or so of global production, by 2009 in order to
promote competition. Today, De Beers sells about 45% of all rough
diamonds, and its share of production is about 40%.
As the market becomes more dynamic, De Beers is investing heavily
in exploration, developing four mines in Canada and South Africa
and selling underperforming operations. The diamond giant has
established a chain of jewellery shops in a joint venture with
LVMH, a luxury-goods group. It now spends about $200m a year on
marketing, which has helped to boost sales of diamonds,
particularly in Asia. Marketing is also vital in persuading people
to buy the real thing. Synthetic diamonds have captured 90% of the
industrial market, but have made few inroads into jewellery, at
least so far.
Smaller firms such as Kimberley Diamond Group, Trans Hex and Gem
Diamonds are racing to fill the gap between large producers and
exploration juniors. Petra Diamonds, another small firm, has just
bought one of De Beers' South African mines. Petra is confident
that it can make money from the loss-making mine, unburdened by De
Beers' costs. It is also about to start producing in Sierra Leone,
and is optimistic about its exploration in Angola, where it is
working with BHP Billiton. The company expects to produce 500,000
carats by 2010, up from 175,000 carats last year. But this is still
tiny next to the record 51m carats De Beers produced in 2006.
Meanwhile Lev Leviev, a secretive diamond tycoon, has been setting
up cutting and polishing facilities in Africa, buying some rough
stones direct from governments and moving into production, putting
further pressure on De Beers. “Leviev has been a driving force
behind the revolution at De Beers,” says Richard Chase of Ambrian
Partners, an investment bank, though Mr Penny shrugs this
off.
What is certain is that Africa, which produces 60% of the world's
diamonds (see chart), wants to do more than just supply rough
stones. “De Beers has failed to properly appraise the aspirations
of African governments,” says Chaim Even-Zohar, a prominent diamond
specialist. “Now it is payback time.” Gone will be the days when
African diamonds were shipped to London to be sorted and aggregated
in lots before being sold.
In January the firm agreed with Namibia's government that all
diamonds produced by their joint venture would be sorted at home,
and about $300m worth of gems, just under half the output, would
also be sold locally. Last week De Beers, which has already sold
26% of its South African arm to a black-owned consortium, said it
would merge its Namaqualand mine with a state-owned diamond firm to
create a new independent local producer. And by 2009, all De Beers
stones from around the world will be sent to a swanky glass
building in Botswana's capital to be aggregated. All this shows
that mineral resources need not always be a curse.
African producers are also keen to cut and polish their own
diamonds, which adds 50% or so to the value of rough stones, and
even move into the jewellery business. Although it remains a big
trading hub, Antwerp is no longer the world's cutting and polishing
centre, and Israel has suffered as well. Almost all diamonds are
now cut and polished in India or China, but African producers hope
to get a share of the business.
And what of blood diamonds? Today, says Alex Yearsley of Global
Witness, a pressure group, they make up a tiny fraction of world
production. But Mr DiCaprio's on-screen antics have raised
awareness of the issue. Although it is a big step forward, the
Kimberley process—a certification scheme set up in 2002 to ensure
that diamonds are not paying for weapons—is not perfect, and dodgy
diamonds can still find their way onto the market. De Beers says
the film's release in America, just before the crucial Christmas
season, did not dent jewellery sales. But more customers now want
to know where their diamonds come from and want a guarantee that
they are clean.
This is good news for those producers that can demonstrate the
provenance of their stones. Canada has developed a certification
scheme for its diamonds, and since 2004 De Beers has been selling
some stones in Asia with its Forevermark, a microscopic engraving
that guarantees their origin. Small producers, such as Petra
Diamonds, are following suit.
Even so, Global Witness says the industry is not much more
transparent than it was a few years ago. Smuggling is rife,
especially in countries like Angola and the Democratic Republic of
Congo, and illegal diamonds still find their way to rich countries.
Some 1m informal miners pan the rivers of Africa for alluvial
diamonds, often in appalling conditions. The Kimberley process was
designed to stem the flow of conflict diamonds, says Willie Nagel,
an international diamond trader who was instrumental in setting it
up, but “conflict-free diamonds should not be confused with ethical
diamonds.” Mining firms and voluntary groups are working to improve
matters. Hollywood may not be looking to a Leonardo for its next
portrayal of the industry—but it is by no means certain that it
will be seeking a Marilyn either.
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