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Overall surplus of PV polysilicon has not bottomed out

(2011-05-11 11:01:53)
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Overall surplus of PV polysilicon has not bottomed out

Venture capital industry for close attention to the photovoltaic industry overcapacity, chairman Shi Zhengrong, Suntech Power 23 in 2009, said the annual meeting of entrepreneurs from the photovoltaic materials, this year imported 50% of polysilicon, the overall production capacity and look not excessive, but there is low capacity of local surplus.

Although polysilicon offer still hovers around 50 yuan / ton in the lower position, but from the industry perspective, the trends have shown a bounce back. Third-quarter earnings of listed companies related to ring more fierce than the upward trend, the market outlook continues to rebound can be expected.

50% this year, imports of silicon materials

"The financial crisis led to shrinking foreign PV market led to a temporary excess capacity, combined production capacity of the domestic market can not be released, resulting in the domestic overcapacity. The technology behind the products meet quality requirements is the main reason for the local excess capacity. "Shi Zhengrong think.

Shi said, "China will flicker, planning capacity is to build capacity 10 times, building capacity is the actual capacity of 10. Every company wants the government before the table function, the results to the government to mislead, in fact, this year we have 50% must rely on foreign imports of raw materials. Therefore, the current so-called excess capacity, excess capacity is low, inefficient excess capacity and overcapacity poor. "

He said that in the first half, about 30% of Suntech's production capacity surplus. However, starting from July, Suntech is not enough production capacity to the end products are sold out, even the expansion too late.

In fact, from the Suntech earnings view, Shi Zhengrong, and there is no "flicker" to the industry. Suntech third quarter of 2009 revenue and net profit surge 85% in the second quarter and 342 percent. Suntech optimistic forecast 2010 shipments will surge 75% over 2009, the company also plans to target the end of 2010 from the current 1GW production capacity increased to 1.4GW.

PV companies bottomed

Although polysilicon offer still hovers around 50 yuan / ton in the lower position, but from the industry perspective, has shown a trend of bottoming out, countries photovoltaic companies, especially the third quarter results for Chinese enterprises have greatly increased the chain. KGI 23, released a report that the high return on investment demand has picked up guide, industrialization season will last until the fourth quarter. Since 2009, the PV product prices have fallen sharply, making the investment in PV systems in Italy, France, Germany, Spain and other countries look attractive return on investment, of which the German market in 2010 subsidy rates may also lead to reduced investment boom in advance , coupled with high international oil prices and other favorable factors, the global PV industry demand for the third quarter of temperature and strength back to strong shipments of major players and revenues than the second quarter of substantial growth, Chinese companies rely on cost advantages, performance biggest bounce.

In addition, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments that have ten iron and steel, cement, plate glass, coal chemicals, such as polysilicon and wind power equipment industries with excess capacity, in principle, to expand production capacity will not approve the project. This will stabilize the spot price of polysilicon, the future reduce the risk of rapid decline in prices of related companies constitute a beneficial effect.

KGI Securities that, while PV enterprise profitability has not yet fully recovered, but some companies in the third quarter and fourth quarter shipments have been a record high, the basic industry has stepped out of the bottom, with compensatory growth opportunities for solar plate. In many PV companies, with economies of scale, group strength, technological innovation, the regional advantages and other firms will be the better choice.

From the industrial chain, at present, listed companies involved in raw materials, including polysilicon Leshan Electric Power, Sichuan investment of energy, TBEA, Jiangsu Sunshine, shield security environment, the production chain of raw materials to the battery cover has Tianwei change, CSG, aerospace electromechanical , have focused on thin-film batteries can be renewed extension, Vosges stake in polysilicon ingot casting furnaces with refinement technology.

National PV price policy concerns

PV electricity price for the policy, Shi insisted that only 1.44 yuan in the price of photovoltaic installed capacity of large-scale development can be achieved. "The price is not lower than 1.44 yuan a business to make money. When an industry or infancy, if not in the business profitable in the process, what kind of power and capital to continue to expand the scale? How can we continue to invest in R & D, to study more and better technology and products? "

 

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