Lance Roberts是Streettalk Advisors（一家4亿美元市值的咨询公司）的首席经济师。他在6个月前就提醒客户要保守一些。最近几个月一系列令人失望的经济数据让他觉得衰退几乎成为定局。由于本次衰退是由于债务危机而非以前战后引起的衰退，所以消费者会继续减少支出，经济将难以起色。战后衰退导致股市跌去三分之一，而这次的衰退也许会导致更加猛烈的下跌。

在这种环境下，Roberts更倾向于持有现金和债券，还有黄金。股票所占比例为40%。

Recession Almost A Certainty, Says Advisor — Stocks Could Crash Soon

In the past few months, investors have gone from being generally bullish about the economy and stock market to increasingly concerned that we may be headed for another recession. For now, however, the consensus is still that we'll trudge along with slow growth but avoid an actual downturn.

One advisor who thinks that a recession is almost a certainty, however, is Lance Roberts, the Chief Economist at Streettalk Advisors, a $400 million advisory firm.

Roberts says he began warning clients about a recession more than 6 months ago, urging them to be more defensive. And now, after the string of lousy economic data in recent months, Roberts thinks another recession is almost a foregone conclusion.

So what should investors do, given that outlook?

Roberts observes that, in "normal" post-War recessions, the stock market tends to fall by about a third. He also argues, however, that this is NOT a normal post-War recession--it's a debt-fueled balance-sheet recession, which we haven't experienced since the Great Depression. To reduce their debts, Roberts says, consumers will have to continue to spend less money, and this will weigh on the economy. So if we do have another recession, Roberts argues, the stock-market fall could be more severe than usual.

In this environment, Roberts is maintaining a large allocation to cash and fixed income (bonds) and "hard" assets like gold. He has reduced his recommended stock allocation to 40%.