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巴菲特观察:因一年前挺住高盛赚了30亿美元

(2009-09-24 22:54:52)
标签:

巴菲特

高盛

股市

金融危机

雷曼兄弟

股票

分类: 投资理财

http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/Sections/News_And_Analysis/_Blogs/Warren_Buffett_Watch/_DAILY%20POSTS/Graphics/090923_WBW_goldmansachs_ani.jpg经过了12个月,沃伦巴菲特的伯克夏哈撒韦公司因拯救高盛(Goldman Sachs)多赚了30亿美元(账面)。

 

一年前的今天(2008年9月23日),在其他人因为雷曼兄弟的倒闭而惊慌失措的时候,巴菲特用50亿美元给高盛投了支持票,他用这50亿美元买高盛的优先股,高盛给他每年10%的分红(也即每年5亿美元),更重要的是高盛还给了伯克夏公司以每股115美元的行权价购买50亿美元的股票,这被巴菲特称作是额外的奖金。

 

现在事实证明了巴菲特的伟大,因为高盛23日的股价达到了186美元。

 

但不要忘记,一年前,那可是大家都不知道高盛明天能否活下去的恐慌时期,而且高盛的股价也曾经一度跌到47.41美元(去年11月中)。

 

然而,在我们看来很伟大的事情,在巴菲特看来是没有风险的,因为他在一年前作出这个决定后说:“这个交易价格对、条款对、人也对”。尽管目前行使股票购买权可以马上带来31亿美元的收益,巴菲特依然没有任何兴趣行使这个权利,他还要坐收分红直到最后一刻才考虑把50亿美元换成股票。

 

这一切都因为巴菲特认为高盛是一家出色的公司:其全球竞争力、久经考验的管理层及智慧和资本实力必定让其继续保持出色的表现。

 

以上来自下文:

 

Warren Buffett's $3 Billion Goldman Anniversary
Published: Wednesday, 23 Sep 2009 | 10:27 AM ET
 
By: Alex Crippen
Executive Producer

 

It's 12 months later and Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway is $3 billion richer.

 

One year ago today, on September 23, 2008, with the financial world still reeling from the collapse of Lehman Brothers just days before, Buffett stunned Wall Street with a massive vote of confidence for Goldman Sachs.

In a late-day news release, Goldman announced a private deal to sell Berkshire $5 billion of perpetual preferred stock.  In effect, Berkshire was giving Goldman a massive loan.  And you don't loan that kind of money to a firm you think could follow Lehman down the drain. 

In that release, Buffett called Goldman "an exceptional institution" with an "unrivaled global franchise, a proven and deep management team and the intellectual and financial capital to continue its track record of outperformance."

The next day, in an interview on CNBC, Buffett said, "The price was right, the terms were right, and the people were right." 

 

Buffett's money, and his endorsement of Goldman, didn't come cheap.

Goldman agreed to pay Berkshire a 10 percent annual dividend on the preferred stock.  That's $500 million a year, and the payout didn't depend at all on what happened to Goldman's common stock price.

http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/Sections/News_And_Analysis/_Blogs/Warren_Buffett_Watch/_DAILY%20POSTS/Graphics/090916_wbw_1yearlater_badge_full.jpg
 

 

But there was more.  In what Buffett later described as a "bonus," Goldman also gave Berkshire the right to buy $5 billion of common stock at $115 a share.  Berkshire could exercise that right any time in the next five years.

The bonus has turned into big bucks.  Goldman's stock sunk as low as $47.41 amid the late November panic at the height of the credit crisis.  Some were saying Buffett had lost his touch, citing the under-water Goldman warrants.  (That's didn't take into account, however, the 10 percent dividend on Berkshire's $5 billion loan.  That payout was guaranteed, as long as Goldman didn't go under completely.)

 

http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/Sections/News_And_Analysis/_Blogs/Warren_Buffett_Watch/_DAILY%20POSTS/Graphics/090923_WBW_goldman_chart.jpg
Note: Actual value of warrants would be $0 when Goldman share price was below strike price.  Chart shows how deeply "under water" the warrants have been.

 

By March, however, the warrants were almost back "in the money" as Goldman's stock rebounded.

Today, those warrants are worth almost $3.1 billion.  (The difference between this morning's market price around $186 and the strike price of $115, multiplied by the 43,478,260 warrants Berkshire received.)

 

That's on paper, of course.  Berkshire doesn't actually get any hard cash from the warrants until it exercises the option to buy at $115 and then sells at a higher market price. 

So far, Buffett show no interest in doing that, on the expectation Goldman's stock is still going higher.

In July, as Berkshire's stock rallied to a six-month closing high, he told Fox Business News, "Every instinct in my body tells me that we will want to hold those warrants until they're very close to their expiration date. The preferred pays us the dividend and the warrants are going to make us the money."

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