巴菲特最新自传《滚雪球》的作者Alice Schroeder在彭博财经上写的一篇评论提到要大家既看到巴菲特乐观的一面，也要看到http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/Sections/News_And_Analysis/_Blogs/Warren_Buffett_Watch/_DAILY%20POSTS/Graphics/090604_WB_woody_doris.jpg其悲观的一面。她形容巴菲特是乐观中夹着极端谨慎的人,因此提醒大家要看到其两面性，因为正是这两种看似矛盾的结合体让巴菲特成为伟大的预言家。她形容巴菲特是Woody Allen和Doris Day的混血儿（这两个人均是美国著名影星，前者代表悲观派，后者是乐观派的代表）。根据美国以前都能够从挫折中恢复的历史，巴菲特对美国的未来感到乐观，所以去年10月他自己买进美股，而同时他也认识到美国现在所存在的问题，所以才说当前美国的经济就如同从悬崖掉下。

 

总之巴菲特对美国的未来还是持乐观态度，他认为长期而言股票相对于债券更可以有效对抗通货膨胀。

 

在我看来，巴菲特的这种态度完全适用于中国的投资者，尽管面临各种各样的困难，长远而言，中国长期发展的态势并未改变，只要持这种乱云飞渡仍从容的态度，成功当属于乐观的坚持者，但是一定切记不要饿死在金山前，也就是说每个投资者一定不要冒超过自身承受能力的风险，因为短期的风浪可能让你看不到明天的太阳。

 

下面是来自CNBC“巴菲特观察”的有关文章（详情可见：http://www.cnbc.com/id/31103814）。

 

Warning: Warren Buffett Isn't As Bullish As He Sounds - Biographer

Warren Buffett's official biographer has a "fair warning" for investors: The Oracle of Omaha isn't as bullish as he sounds.

 

After spending hundreds of hours with Buffett researching The Snowball, Alice Schroeder points out there are two sides to Buffett's psychology, a "buoyant optimism tempered by extreme caution... In temperament, he could be the son of Woody Allen and Doris Day."

 

She urges us all to listen to both sides, because they both make him a great forecaster.

Today she writes in a Bloomberg commentary that Buffett looks to America's long history of past recoveries as he confidently predicts that its "best days lie ahead" and living conditions in the U.S. will continue to improve over the decades.  "Be greedy when others are fearful." That's why was buying U.S. stocks for his personal account as early as last October.

That's the Doris Day in him.  But don't ignore the Woody Allen side. 

She cites evidence that "Buffett is awake to America's problems" such as his statement the economy has "fallen off a cliff" and won't be rebounding anytime soon.

"I believe Buffett’s optimism about the country is genuine. It’s a big-picture sort of optimism, though. Economists who are debating whether there will be a recovery in 2010 are living in a different world than Buffett, whose comparisons to periods as traumatic as World War II and the Civil War should sober anyone who thinks we are going to turn the economy on a dime."

Schroeder also notes that Buffett has an "ace in the hole."  Future inflation should favor stocks over bonds, because "even if the nominal profits from a business are gouged by inflation, a good business provides some real return over time."

Her bottom line: "Buffett is bullish, but not as bullish as he sounds.  His optimism is long-term in nature, and inflation is his hedge."

Current Berkshire stock prices:

http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/Sections/News_And_Analysis/_Blogs/Warren_Buffett_Watch/_DAILY%20POSTS/Graphics/080214_portfolio_tracker_badge.jpg－ 自传作者：他并非如想象中的乐观" TITLE="巴菲特观察 － 自传作者：他并非如想象中的乐观" />

 

Class A: [US;BRK.A  89800.0  http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/CNBC_Images/componentbacks/watchlist_down.gif－ 自传作者：他并非如想象中的乐观" TITLE="巴菲特观察 － 自传作者：他并非如想象中的乐观" />   -400.00  (-0.44%)   http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/CNBC_Images/backgrounds/realtime_icon.gif－ 自传作者：他并非如想象中的乐观" /> ]

Class B: [US;BRK.B  2919.95  http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/CNBC_Images/componentbacks/watchlist_down.gif－ 自传作者：他并非如想象中的乐观" TITLE="巴菲特观察 － 自传作者：他并非如想象中的乐观" />   -13.05  (-0.44%)   http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/CNBC_Images/backgrounds/realtime_icon.gif－ 自传作者：他并非如想象中的乐观" /> ]