加载中…股票买卖四部曲 － 你真认为你会了吗？（全文译完）
(2008-12-31 02:14:14)
标签：
股市股票买卖投资财经炒股 |
分类： 投资理财 |
这篇2008年12月26日发表在CNBC的文章写得实在太精彩，博主利用元旦放假时间翻译出来跟大家共享，错误难免请谅：
股票买卖四部曲 －
你真认为你会了吗？
“如果你拼命想要某项东西，你就可能得到它。你的渴望必须从皮肤迸发并汇入开天辟地的那种能量” - 玛莎葛兰姆(martha graham)舞者及编舞家，美国现代舞表演的创始人，以扭曲和充满张力的动作表现人类共有的经验，对现代舞影响极大。
OK － 我也从“你真认为你会跳舞吗”这个电视连续剧编造了这篇文章的标题。
由于从5岁时我就是个舞蹈者，我实际上认为我会跳舞！直至我看到这些惊人的年轻舞蹈者每周都进行的奋力争夺。他们一个又一个摔倒又爬起来，有人安全通过，有人被无情淘汰。这个舞场继续变窄直到有一天又有人胜出。这些人都有才华、训练和经验。那么胜利者到底和失败者有何差别呢？激情、信念和纪律是在跳舞、生活和股票买卖中胜利者区别于失败者的关键因素。
为什么世间很多人认为他们有信心、有勇气和有能力做事但其实他们并无法做到呢？我们今天先不去讨论自负和思维方面的原因，而集中讨论一下股票买卖的学习阶梯。
有一天，你醒过来后觉得工作已经没有盼头，不喜欢乏味无趣的生活。而你的朋友在股票市场混了几年并且干得也还可以。而你的朋友的朋友刚刚开了个户头，花了几千元买了大量有关股票的软件、书籍和参加炒股课程，但却还赚不到钱，实际上他已经亏了快一半钱了。另一方面，你也听到有些人每年炒股回报百分之100到1000。这种诱惑加上“人家都可以做到，我应该可以做得更好”的想法让你跃跃欲试。我想，这有什么困难的？只要看一些好的书，买最好的软件，参加好的课程，订热门的报刊，然后鼠标一按，低买高卖或者高买更高卖再低买，赚钱不是易如反掌吗？
然后你正式向全家宣布你将辞掉现在的工作全职炒股，钱将会如水一样流进你的账户并且全家的生活都会改变。这看起来那么容易，参加培训班的那些聪明人都在这样做，我怎么会比他们笨呢？
这种想法实际是一种幻想，正如任何未经专业培训的人都不可能有一天醒来就宣布要开始当律师或者医生一样。精通股票交易不是片刻就可以达到的，别自以为是了，事情没有这么简单。
不管你看过多少股票交易的书、参加多少场培训班和研讨会、墙上贴了多少名言警句和曲线图，你必须交上你自己的学费。你必须知道这个所谓的小菜一碟可能成为后悔药，并且认识到最成功的股票交易者首先必须在亏损专业取得博士学位。
交易是简单的，但也是不容易的。炼成股票交易的最高武功是需要时间、耐心、恒心和勇气的。成功的交易和投资是一种涵盖艺术和科学的技巧，要学习和掌握这些技巧，必须在心理、情绪、体力和精神上克服自己。对于很多人来说，这是艰巨的历程。从你的现状出发，了解这些必要的过程，这个过程需要时间，不过如果你保持激情，其回报也是巨大的。没有了激情，其它的就不用谈了。
“成功没有什么秘密，它是准备、努力工作和吸取失败经验的结果” － 柯林.鲍威尔
每个股票交易者都要攀登四级学习的阶梯，并且必须逐级爬。你无法跳过其中一级，但是如果你粗心大意，就不要再学习和实践了，因为你将会摔下一至两级。
下面就是我说的这四级学习的阶梯：
（一）无意无能： 你不清楚自己还不行，也不清楚自己怎么就不行，你可能就是传说中的傻人有福。
在这个阶段你不知道交易存在技巧并且你需要这些技巧。你不清楚你还不知道什么，包括不清楚你自己的不足（因为你以为交易不需要技巧）。这时你可能也不愿意承认交易需要技巧，因为你认为这些都是没有用的，你认为你要做的只是设立账户和交易软件服务，然后找出热门股票，钱自然滚滚而来。要进入第二阶段，你要克服这种心理并且意识到自己的不足。否则你就无法进步，也学不到新的技巧。下一步是：
（二） 有意无能： Conscious Incompetence: 你清楚自己还不行，不过还不太了解自己到底哪里不行。
在这个阶段，你认识到交易是一门技巧（这种技巧也确实存在），你也了解到很多人在使用这些技巧并且这些技巧对你的成功有帮助。你也通过试着交易或者练习如何交易来了解自己的不足。你开始认识到自己还不知道多少。成功的交易者将在这一阶段立志学习并且虚心受教， 不断实践直至开始清楚那些你还不知道的。那你就可以进入：
（三） 有意有能：你已经是内行了，也有本事自己买卖了，但每次交易前都要再想想。
这个阶段，你对交易技巧运用自如。然而，你要处心积虑去做，而不是本能地或者自动地去做。这时你对进一步的学习和深造都充满兴趣，但你无法教别人如何去做。从这一步到下一步要经历无数的实践，直到有一天你大叫：“有了”，那就说明你进入了最后的阶段：
（四） 无意有能：你知道如何去做，而且在做之前都不用想了。
这时，交易的行为和过程在脑海里形成...它变成你的第二本能。炉火纯青的你甚至可以边买卖股票边做别的事情（不过这可不是我建议的）。 有些人在这一阶段可以教别人，但也有例外。其实这时要去教别人也很难因为这些技巧已经大部分变成本能反应了。武功修为到这种地步，如果有人问为什么你知道这样操作时，你将不得不停下来想想然后说：“我也不太清楚，但我就知道该这样操作。”这恐怕就是交易的绝招了。
其实还有不为人知的另一层次，叫有意无意有能阶段。修炼到此阶段的大师是最好的导师，也是神龙见首不见尾的人物。如果你真要学炒股，赶快去拜这些人为师吧。
“冠军用无意有能的方式运用了那些基本方法。他们从过去无数次的练习和比赛中学到不用思考就知道该如何做出身体反应。当你可以无须思考就正确地操作时，你可以表现非常出色” - June Jones （夏威夷大学勇士足球队教练）
谢谢并祝炒股愉快！
Janice
英文原文：
Dorn: So You Think You Can Trade?
*Dr. Janice Dorn
The Trading Doctor*
/You can have anything you want if you want it desperately enough. You
must want it with an exuberance that erupts through the skin and joins
the energy that created the world… Martha Graham (1894-1991; fierce,
innovative dancer and choreographer)/
OK — I fudged the title of this post from the TV series called “So You
Think You Can Dance?”
Having been a dancer since age 5, I actually thought I could dance! That
was before I watched these amazing young dancers battling it out week
after week; one by one, falling down, getting up, getting safe and
getting booted. The field continues to narrow until, one day soon, the
winner will be chosen. These people have talent, training and
experience. So what separates the winners from the losers? Passion,
commitment and discipline. That is what separates the winners from the
losers in dancing, life and trading.
Why do so many people think they can do something with confidence,
courage and competence when they cannot? The so-called overconfidence
bias and other cognitive (thinking) biases are topics for another day.
Today, I would like to focus on the Learning Ladder of Trading.
One day, you get up and realize that you are in a dead-end job, and just
sick and tired of being sick and tired. Your buddy has been trading the
markets for a few years and doing OK…not great...but getting by. Your
buddy's buddy just set up a trading account, paid thousands for
software, books and courses, but is not making any money. In fact, he
has lost half of his initial stake. Yet, you hear others touting returns
of 100-1000 percent gains a year, and the siren call of greed coupled
with the idea that if they can do it, you can do it better, is too
tempting to resist. I mean, how difficult can it be? You just buy the
right books, get the best software, go to the right seminars, subscribe
to the hottest newsletter, and--with the click, click of your mouse--buy
low and sell high or buy high and sell higher or sell high and buy
lower. No problem. Piece of cake.
So, you announce to your family that you are going to quit your job,
become a full time trader, monies will flow effortless into your account
and everything is going to change. It all seems so easy, and the seminar
people are doing it, so why can't you. You are just as intelligent as
the next guy.
This type of thinking borders on the delusional. Just as one cannot wake
up one day and announce that one, without any formal education training
(including the school of hard knocks) is going to start practicing law
or medicine, one does not become a proficient trader overnight. Get over
yourself, because it just isn't going to happen.
No matter how many bells, whistles, indicators, seminars and books with
which you surround yourself, you have to pay your dues. You must learn
that that piece of cake needs to be converted into humble pie, and that
the most-successful traders got that way by first getting a Ph.D. in
losses.
Trading is simple, but it is not easy. Trading is a skill and an art
that takes time, patience, perseverance and courage. Successful trading
and investing are skills, which combine both art and science. In order
to achieve and master these skills, one must progress on a path, which
is mental, emotional, physical and spiritual. For many, this is the most
difficult journey ever taken. Start where you are, and understand that
it is about the process, that it takes time and that the rewards are
worth it if you just keep going with passion. Without passion, why bother?
/There are no secrets to success. It is the result of preparation, hard
work, and learning from failure… Colin L. Powell/
Every trader must climb the four rungs of the Ladder of Learning, and
must do this one step at a time. You cannot skip a step, but if you let
your guard down, do not continue to study and practice, you can and will
fall down a step or two.
What do I mean by the Ladder of Learning and the four steps? In this
case (and putting other learning theories and the neuroanatomical bases
for them aside for now) I am referring specifically to the four stages
of trading competence:
/Somewhere in your make-up, there lies sleeping, the seed of achievement
which, if aroused and put into action, would carry you to heights such
as you may never have hoped to attain… Napoleon Hill/
(1) Unconscious Incompetence: You don't know that you don't know, and
you don't know what you don't know, a.k.a. ignorance is bliss.
At this stage of your trading, you are not aware of the existence of, or
need for, specific trading skills. You don’t know what you don’t know,
including that you have any deficiencies (since you don't know that
there are any specific trading skills). Denial may come into play here
as well, as you may think that such skills are unnecessary or not
useful, and all you have to do is to subscribe to a service or hotline,
or jump on the next "hot" pick and money will come rolling into your
account. In order to move to the next stage, you most overcome your
denial and become consciously aware of your incompetence. Without taking
this next step, you will not progress and no new skill will be acquired.
There will be no learning. The next step is:
(2) Conscious Incompetence: You know that you don't know, but you are
not entirely sure what you don't know.
At this stage, you become aware that trading is a skill, which exists,
which is practiced by many and is relevant to your success. You also
become aware of your deficiencies in this area by attempting to trade or
practicing how to trade. This is the stage in which you begin to figure
out how much you don't know. Successful traders will, at some point
during this stage of the learning process, make a commitment to learn.
They will make a commitment to study, to be teachable and to practice,
practice and practice until you know what you don’t know. Now, you are
ready to progress to:
(3) Conscious Competence: You know what you know, and you can trade, but
you have to think about it.
During this stage, the skill of trading can be performed reliably,
consistently and at will. However, you have to concentrate a lot, and
think a lot, in order to do it. It is not second nature, nor is it
automatic. At this stage, you are open totally to more learning, but you
are not able to teach anyone else how to do it. The only way to proceed
from this stage to the final stage is to practice more and more until—
eureka — one day you have reached the stage of:
(4) Unconscious Competence: You know how to do it, and don't have to
think about it. You just do it.
At this stage, the act and process of trading consolidates within the
memory and pattern recognition areas of your brain…it becomes second
nature. If you are really good at it, you can trade and do other things
at the same time (I do not recommend this, however). Certain people at
this stage are capable of teaching others, but this is not universal. In
fact, it may be more difficult to teach at this stage since the skill
has become largely instinctual. It is at this stage when, if someone
asks you how you knew to do that, you have to pause, think and say, "I
don't really know. I just did it." This is trading mastery.
There is another, final and rarely-discussed stage that is called
Conscious Unconscious Competence. Those who have reached this stage are
the best teachers, and they are rare and difficult to find. Find one of
these people to guide and support you if you really want to learn how to
trade.
/Champions execute the fundamentals with unconscious competence. That
means they've practiced the moves so many times in the past that they
can do them almost perfectly without thinking about it. When you can
perform brilliantly without thinking, you can perform at a very high
level…June Jones (Head Football Coach, University of Hawaii Warriors)/
Thanks and Good Trading!
- Janice
“如果你拼命想要某项东西，你就可能得到它。你的渴望必须从皮肤迸发并汇入开天辟地的那种能量” - 玛莎葛兰姆(martha graham)舞者及编舞家，美国现代舞表演的创始人，以扭曲和充满张力的动作表现人类共有的经验，对现代舞影响极大。
OK － 我也从“你真认为你会跳舞吗”这个电视连续剧编造了这篇文章的标题。
由于从5岁时我就是个舞蹈者，我实际上认为我会跳舞！直至我看到这些惊人的年轻舞蹈者每周都进行的奋力争夺。他们一个又一个摔倒又爬起来，有人安全通过，有人被无情淘汰。这个舞场继续变窄直到有一天又有人胜出。这些人都有才华、训练和经验。那么胜利者到底和失败者有何差别呢？激情、信念和纪律是在跳舞、生活和股票买卖中胜利者区别于失败者的关键因素。
为什么世间很多人认为他们有信心、有勇气和有能力做事但其实他们并无法做到呢？我们今天先不去讨论自负和思维方面的原因，而集中讨论一下股票买卖的学习阶梯。
有一天，你醒过来后觉得工作已经没有盼头，不喜欢乏味无趣的生活。而你的朋友在股票市场混了几年并且干得也还可以。而你的朋友的朋友刚刚开了个户头，花了几千元买了大量有关股票的软件、书籍和参加炒股课程，但却还赚不到钱，实际上他已经亏了快一半钱了。另一方面，你也听到有些人每年炒股回报百分之100到1000。这种诱惑加上“人家都可以做到，我应该可以做得更好”的想法让你跃跃欲试。我想，这有什么困难的？只要看一些好的书，买最好的软件，参加好的课程，订热门的报刊，然后鼠标一按，低买高卖或者高买更高卖再低买，赚钱不是易如反掌吗？
然后你正式向全家宣布你将辞掉现在的工作全职炒股，钱将会如水一样流进你的账户并且全家的生活都会改变。这看起来那么容易，参加培训班的那些聪明人都在这样做，我怎么会比他们笨呢？
这种想法实际是一种幻想，正如任何未经专业培训的人都不可能有一天醒来就宣布要开始当律师或者医生一样。精通股票交易不是片刻就可以达到的，别自以为是了，事情没有这么简单。
不管你看过多少股票交易的书、参加多少场培训班和研讨会、墙上贴了多少名言警句和曲线图，你必须交上你自己的学费。你必须知道这个所谓的小菜一碟可能成为后悔药，并且认识到最成功的股票交易者首先必须在亏损专业取得博士学位。
交易是简单的，但也是不容易的。炼成股票交易的最高武功是需要时间、耐心、恒心和勇气的。成功的交易和投资是一种涵盖艺术和科学的技巧，要学习和掌握这些技巧，必须在心理、情绪、体力和精神上克服自己。对于很多人来说，这是艰巨的历程。从你的现状出发，了解这些必要的过程，这个过程需要时间，不过如果你保持激情，其回报也是巨大的。没有了激情，其它的就不用谈了。
“成功没有什么秘密，它是准备、努力工作和吸取失败经验的结果” － 柯林.鲍威尔
每个股票交易者都要攀登四级学习的阶梯，并且必须逐级爬。你无法跳过其中一级，但是如果你粗心大意，就不要再学习和实践了，因为你将会摔下一至两级。
下面就是我说的这四级学习的阶梯：
（一）无意无能： 你不清楚自己还不行，也不清楚自己怎么就不行，你可能就是传说中的傻人有福。
在这个阶段你不知道交易存在技巧并且你需要这些技巧。你不清楚你还不知道什么，包括不清楚你自己的不足（因为你以为交易不需要技巧）。这时你可能也不愿意承认交易需要技巧，因为你认为这些都是没有用的，你认为你要做的只是设立账户和交易软件服务，然后找出热门股票，钱自然滚滚而来。要进入第二阶段，你要克服这种心理并且意识到自己的不足。否则你就无法进步，也学不到新的技巧。下一步是：
（二） 有意无能： Conscious Incompetence: 你清楚自己还不行，不过还不太了解自己到底哪里不行。
在这个阶段，你认识到交易是一门技巧（这种技巧也确实存在），你也了解到很多人在使用这些技巧并且这些技巧对你的成功有帮助。你也通过试着交易或者练习如何交易来了解自己的不足。你开始认识到自己还不知道多少。成功的交易者将在这一阶段立志学习并且虚心受教， 不断实践直至开始清楚那些你还不知道的。那你就可以进入：
（三） 有意有能：你已经是内行了，也有本事自己买卖了，但每次交易前都要再想想。
这个阶段，你对交易技巧运用自如。然而，你要处心积虑去做，而不是本能地或者自动地去做。这时你对进一步的学习和深造都充满兴趣，但你无法教别人如何去做。从这一步到下一步要经历无数的实践，直到有一天你大叫：“有了”，那就说明你进入了最后的阶段：
（四） 无意有能：你知道如何去做，而且在做之前都不用想了。
这时，交易的行为和过程在脑海里形成...它变成你的第二本能。炉火纯青的你甚至可以边买卖股票边做别的事情（不过这可不是我建议的）。 有些人在这一阶段可以教别人，但也有例外。其实这时要去教别人也很难因为这些技巧已经大部分变成本能反应了。武功修为到这种地步，如果有人问为什么你知道这样操作时，你将不得不停下来想想然后说：“我也不太清楚，但我就知道该这样操作。”这恐怕就是交易的绝招了。
其实还有不为人知的另一层次，叫有意无意有能阶段。修炼到此阶段的大师是最好的导师，也是神龙见首不见尾的人物。如果你真要学炒股，赶快去拜这些人为师吧。
“冠军用无意有能的方式运用了那些基本方法。他们从过去无数次的练习和比赛中学到不用思考就知道该如何做出身体反应。当你可以无须思考就正确地操作时，你可以表现非常出色” - June Jones （夏威夷大学勇士足球队教练）
谢谢并祝炒股愉快！
Janice
英文原文：
Dorn: So You Think You Can Trade?
*Dr. Janice Dorn
The Trading Doctor*
/You can have anything you want if you want it desperately enough. You
must want it with an exuberance that erupts through the skin and joins
the energy that created the world… Martha Graham (1894-1991; fierce,
innovative dancer and choreographer)/
OK — I fudged the title of this post from the TV series called “So You
Think You Can Dance?”
Having been a dancer since age 5, I actually thought I could dance! That
was before I watched these amazing young dancers battling it out week
after week; one by one, falling down, getting up, getting safe and
getting booted. The field continues to narrow until, one day soon, the
winner will be chosen. These people have talent, training and
experience. So what separates the winners from the losers? Passion,
commitment and discipline. That is what separates the winners from the
losers in dancing, life and trading.
Why do so many people think they can do something with confidence,
courage and competence when they cannot? The so-called overconfidence
bias and other cognitive (thinking) biases are topics for another day.
Today, I would like to focus on the Learning Ladder of Trading.
One day, you get up and realize that you are in a dead-end job, and just
sick and tired of being sick and tired. Your buddy has been trading the
markets for a few years and doing OK…not great...but getting by. Your
buddy's buddy just set up a trading account, paid thousands for
software, books and courses, but is not making any money. In fact, he
has lost half of his initial stake. Yet, you hear others touting returns
of 100-1000 percent gains a year, and the siren call of greed coupled
with the idea that if they can do it, you can do it better, is too
tempting to resist. I mean, how difficult can it be? You just buy the
right books, get the best software, go to the right seminars, subscribe
to the hottest newsletter, and--with the click, click of your mouse--buy
low and sell high or buy high and sell higher or sell high and buy
lower. No problem. Piece of cake.
So, you announce to your family that you are going to quit your job,
become a full time trader, monies will flow effortless into your account
and everything is going to change. It all seems so easy, and the seminar
people are doing it, so why can't you. You are just as intelligent as
the next guy.
This type of thinking borders on the delusional. Just as one cannot wake
up one day and announce that one, without any formal education training
(including the school of hard knocks) is going to start practicing law
or medicine, one does not become a proficient trader overnight. Get over
yourself, because it just isn't going to happen.
No matter how many bells, whistles, indicators, seminars and books with
which you surround yourself, you have to pay your dues. You must learn
that that piece of cake needs to be converted into humble pie, and that
the most-successful traders got that way by first getting a Ph.D. in
losses.
Trading is simple, but it is not easy. Trading is a skill and an art
that takes time, patience, perseverance and courage. Successful trading
and investing are skills, which combine both art and science. In order
to achieve and master these skills, one must progress on a path, which
is mental, emotional, physical and spiritual. For many, this is the most
difficult journey ever taken. Start where you are, and understand that
it is about the process, that it takes time and that the rewards are
worth it if you just keep going with passion. Without passion, why bother?
/There are no secrets to success. It is the result of preparation, hard
work, and learning from failure… Colin L. Powell/
Every trader must climb the four rungs of the Ladder of Learning, and
must do this one step at a time. You cannot skip a step, but if you let
your guard down, do not continue to study and practice, you can and will
fall down a step or two.
What do I mean by the Ladder of Learning and the four steps? In this
case (and putting other learning theories and the neuroanatomical bases
for them aside for now) I am referring specifically to the four stages
of trading competence:
/Somewhere in your make-up, there lies sleeping, the seed of achievement
which, if aroused and put into action, would carry you to heights such
as you may never have hoped to attain… Napoleon Hill/
(1) Unconscious Incompetence: You don't know that you don't know, and
you don't know what you don't know, a.k.a. ignorance is bliss.
At this stage of your trading, you are not aware of the existence of, or
need for, specific trading skills. You don’t know what you don’t know,
including that you have any deficiencies (since you don't know that
there are any specific trading skills). Denial may come into play here
as well, as you may think that such skills are unnecessary or not
useful, and all you have to do is to subscribe to a service or hotline,
or jump on the next "hot" pick and money will come rolling into your
account. In order to move to the next stage, you most overcome your
denial and become consciously aware of your incompetence. Without taking
this next step, you will not progress and no new skill will be acquired.
There will be no learning. The next step is:
(2) Conscious Incompetence: You know that you don't know, but you are
not entirely sure what you don't know.
At this stage, you become aware that trading is a skill, which exists,
which is practiced by many and is relevant to your success. You also
become aware of your deficiencies in this area by attempting to trade or
practicing how to trade. This is the stage in which you begin to figure
out how much you don't know. Successful traders will, at some point
during this stage of the learning process, make a commitment to learn.
They will make a commitment to study, to be teachable and to practice,
practice and practice until you know what you don’t know. Now, you are
ready to progress to:
(3) Conscious Competence: You know what you know, and you can trade, but
you have to think about it.
During this stage, the skill of trading can be performed reliably,
consistently and at will. However, you have to concentrate a lot, and
think a lot, in order to do it. It is not second nature, nor is it
automatic. At this stage, you are open totally to more learning, but you
are not able to teach anyone else how to do it. The only way to proceed
from this stage to the final stage is to practice more and more until—
eureka — one day you have reached the stage of:
(4) Unconscious Competence: You know how to do it, and don't have to
think about it. You just do it.
At this stage, the act and process of trading consolidates within the
memory and pattern recognition areas of your brain…it becomes second
nature. If you are really good at it, you can trade and do other things
at the same time (I do not recommend this, however). Certain people at
this stage are capable of teaching others, but this is not universal. In
fact, it may be more difficult to teach at this stage since the skill
has become largely instinctual. It is at this stage when, if someone
asks you how you knew to do that, you have to pause, think and say, "I
don't really know. I just did it." This is trading mastery.
There is another, final and rarely-discussed stage that is called
Conscious Unconscious Competence. Those who have reached this stage are
the best teachers, and they are rare and difficult to find. Find one of
these people to guide and support you if you really want to learn how to
trade.
/Champions execute the fundamentals with unconscious competence. That
means they've practiced the moves so many times in the past that they
can do them almost perfectly without thinking about it. When you can
perform brilliantly without thinking, you can perform at a very high
level…June Jones (Head Football Coach, University of Hawaii Warriors)/
Thanks and Good Trading!
- Janice
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