美国就业市场出现好转迹象

美国的就业岗位仍在快速下降，但周三公布的就业数据显示，劳动力市场正在出现好转的迹象。

人力资源服务公司ADP（Automatic Data Processing Inc.）和预测机构宏观经济顾问公司（Macroeconomic Advisers）发布的报告显示，4月份私人部门裁减了491,000个工作岗位，大大低于3月份裁减的708,000个。由于政府部门的工作岗位继续增加，这份报告预计周五官方发布的就业人口报告将显示就业人数减少483,000人，远低于3月份663,000人的降幅。

宏观经济顾问公司经济学家赫佐(Ben Herzon)说，在情况好转前，首先应是下滑的更慢一些。如果这种判断是正确的，这就意味着劳动力市场已经达到了一个转折点。

此前经济学家预计，周五的报告将显示工作岗位减少61万个。但根据ADP的报告，一些经济学家已经上调了预期。ADP的报告是根据从约2,400万名就业人员中抽取的样本得出的。

职业介绍公司Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc.也在周三说，雇主4月份共宣布裁员132,590人，低于3月份的150,411人。

最近其它一些迹象也显示，就业下降的速度正在放缓。首次申请失业救济人数最近几周出现了减少。对家庭和企业的调查也表明就业市场的前景有所改善。

不过，为了跟上人口增长的步伐，就业市场每月需要新增10万至12.5万份工作，就业市场距离这个目标还有很长的路。但瑞银(UBS)经济学家奥沙利文(James O'Sullivan)说，直到不久前就业人数的大幅下降还在进一步加剧经济的困境，如今劳动力市场和整体经济都迅速恶化的这种恶性循环似乎已被打破。

他说，我们有理由相信，你会看到这种弱势未来几个月内将会明显消退。

Hopeful Sign in Labor Market

The economy continues to lose jobs at a rapid pace, but payroll figures released Wednesday show signs that the labor market is improving.

Private employers cut 491,000 jobs in April, according to a report from payroll company Automatic Data Processing Inc. and forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers, compared with a steeper cut of 708,000 jobs in March. With government jobs continuing to expand, the report suggests that Friday's government payroll report will show a loss of 483,000 jobs, far fewer than March's 663,000 jobs lost.

'Before things get better, they have to get bad by less,' said Macroeconomic Advisers economist Ben Herzon. 'If this is right, it suggests the labor market has reached an inflection point.'

Economists had projected that Friday's report would show a decline of 610,000. But following the ADP report, which is based on a sample derived from roughly 24 million employees, some economists upgraded their estimates.

Also Wednesday, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. said employers announced 132,590 job cuts in April, compared with 150,411 in March.

Other signs that the pace of job declines is slowing have emerged recently. The number of workers filing initial jobless claims has fallen in recent weeks. Surveys of households and businesses show an improving job-market outlook.

Still, the job market is a long way from the point where it is creating the 100,000 to 125,000 jobs it needs to add monthly just to keep up with a growing population. But where until recently steep job losses were intensifying economic distress, the negative feedback loop that linked a rapidly deteriorating labor market and the overall economy appears to have been broken, said UBS economist James O'Sullivan.

'We can be fairly confident that you're going to see a clear fading of weakness in the next few months,' he said.
http://news.iciba.com/200905/603630.html