国际油价波动的周期模型及其政策含义

 管清友

（清华大学国情研究中心）

第二次世界大战以来，世界石油市场经历了三次大的油价波动周期，目前国际油价正处于高油价周期当中。用多重均衡模型对油价波动的周期进行解释，油价波动的原因来自于供给曲线的特殊性和多重均衡的存在。多重均衡模型的要害在于对油价波动拐点的判断，高油价均衡向低油价均衡转化需要具备两个条件：1）需求受到明显抑制，增长幅度下降；2）产量增长幅度开始超过需求增长幅度。低油价周期向高油价周期转化的拐点条件则相反。遏制国际油价暴涨要么增加供给（及其幅度），要么减少需求（及其幅度）。本轮高油价周期向低油价周期转换的拐点可能发生在：1）世界经济总体放缓。2）全球应对气候变化已经从一种政治思潮落实到各国行动上。未来的油价走势充满不确定性，但做出判断好过不做任何判断。

  The cycle model of international oil prices fluctuations and it's policy implications

By Guan Qingyou   Center for China Study,Tsinghua University

The world oil market has experienced three major cycles of the oil price volatility after World War II, the international oil prices are at high oil prices cycle now. According to multiple equilibrium model of oil price fluctuation cycles, the reasons for the oil prices fluctuations come from the special nature of the supply curve and the existence of multiple equilibrium. It is the crucial point for multi-equilibrium model of oil prices to judge the inflexion point of oil prices. Two conditions will be need when high oil prices transform to low oil prices : 1) Demand was inhibited, and the growth rate decreased 2) The production growth rate is higher than the demand growth range. Whereas, the inflexion of low oil prices to high oil prices cycle to cycle will be on the contrary. The skyrocketing oil prices can be kept within limits if the supply (and amplitude) are increased, or the demand (and amplitude) reduced. The current round of high oil prices to low oil prices cycle may occur in: 1) The overall slowdown of the world economy. 2) Actions will be take fighting for global climate change from a national political ideas into. There exists some uncertainty in the world oil market ,but it is better choice to make the judgement.