http://www.news.harvard.edu/gazette/2006/07.20/10-deathquiz.html

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The longer you live, the longer you can expect to live

Quiz measures death risk

By William J. Cromie

Harvard News Office

If you were born in the United States and celebrate your 65th birthday this year, you can expect to be around for your 81st birthday if you are male, and for your 84th if you are female.

Life expectancy in this country has been rising steeply since 1990, and the National Center for Heath Statistics concludes that the older you are today, the greater the age you are likely to reach. Men and women who make it to age 75 in 2006 can expect to still be around in 2016 and 2017, respectively. At age 85, the odds are good that you'll reach 91.

Newborn boys should survive until about age 75 and girls to age 80, according to numbers published by the National Center for Health Statistics. That works out to a life expectancy of 77.6 years for people in the United States, up from 75.4 years in 1990.

How come people who have already reached these ages can expect to keep going for 10 or 15 more years? Because they have already dodged the mortal dangers that do in younger people: infant mortality, violence, and auto wrecks, according to the July issue of the Harvard Health Letter, published by the Harvard Medical School. The article also credits the survivor effect. People with good genes who have lived in beneficial surroundings - good nature and nurture - are overrepresented in older populations.

What's more, people who study aging trends believe that life expectancies for the old will continue to grow longer. The main reason is that the three biggest killers of older people - heart disease, cancer, and stroke — are being treated more successfully.

You can't really cheer too loud about living longer if you're also living sicker. But there's also good news about staying healthy. Vincent Mor at Brown University Medical School comes up with three reasons. First, more than ever, older people can drive or have access to transportation, and their homes are more friendly to aging. There are fewer stairs, and bathrooms can be modified for easier use, for example. That makes getting around and being able to take care of yourself easier.

Second, Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security provide safety nets for millions of elders, despite the confounding paperwork involved. Third, medical technology has made staying healthy more accessible, what with hip replacement, cataract surgery, and better management of heart disease.

How long will you live?

Why women live longer