阿迪新闻英语-新冠变异病毒致死率或高出30%

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20210123 Sat
阿迪新闻英语
新冠变异病毒致死率或高出30%
COVID-19 variant discovered in UK may be 30% more
lethal
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned Friday that a
coronavirus variant first detected in the country in September may
be around 30% more deadly than previous versions of the
disease.
Johnson unveiled the worrying statistic in a London new
conference.
British scientists already had concluded that the variant,
known as B.1.1.7, spread between 30%-70% faster than the previous
dominant coronavirus strain in the
U.K.
In addition to spreading faster, "it may be associated with a
higher degree of mortality," he said.
Sir Patrick Vallance, Johnson's chief scientific adviser,
explained the previous average death rate of 60-year-olds in
Britain from COVID-19 was about 10 per 1,000. With the new variant,
roughly 13 or 14 out of 1,000 infected people might be expected to
die, he said.
"I want to stress there's a lot of uncertainty around these
numbers and we need more work to get a precise handle on it, but it
obviously is a concern that this (variant, B117) has an increase in
mortality as well as an increase in transmissibility," Vallance
said.
The conclusions were based on findings provided to the British
government by the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats
Advisory Group, or NERVTAG. The group compared mortality rates in
people infected with new and old versions of the virus.
The announcement marked the first time British officials said
the variant, discovered in Kent, England, appeared more lethal.
They previously said there was no reason to believe it could make
people sicker or lead to more fatalities.
The findings were based on two papers presented Jan. 15 that
showed an increased case fatality rate across age groups. The
NERVTAG summary found a “realistic possibility” that infection with
the B.1.1.7 variant “is associated with an increased risk of death
compared to infection with the non-VOC (virus of concern)
viruses."
But the summary also emphasized that the hospital case
fatality rate associated with B.1.1.7 has not increased, and "the
absolute risk of death per infection remains low."
Hospitalization rates have also not increased, according to
the report, although that data may lag behind death rates.
The study was based on the deaths of 2,583 people – 384 of
whom had the new variant – among 1.2 million tested. This
represents about 8% of all deaths in the U.K. during the late
November to early January study period.
Research suggests the Pfizer-BioNTech and Oxford-AstraZeneca
vaccines will continue to be effective against the new variant in
the U.K., which was first detected in southeast England and has now
spread around the world, including to the U.S.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said in a
recent report it expects the fast-spreading variant to become the
dominant strain in the U.S. by March, potentially fueling
exponential growth of the disease.
As of Jan. 20, CDC reported 144 cases of the B.1.1.7 variant
in the U.S.
Luciana Borio, a COVID advisor to the Biden administration and
former official with the Food and Drug Administration, said she
thinks it's too early to say the variant is directly leading to
more deaths.
There are other reasons that could explain why more Britons
are dying, she said.
As more people are infected, more are expected to die, and
"the quality of medical care degrades when the system is under
tremendous stress as it is right now in the U.K.," she said.
Also, Borio said, there may be more deaths because people are
avoiding or unable to get routine care during the pandemic.
There isn't yet a biological explanation for why this variant
should be deadlier than the original version of the SARS-CoV-2
virus that causes COVID-19, she said.
"At minimum, I'd like to see data that this virus is causing
some higher viral loads or some kind of mechanism that could
explain the direct impact," she said. "We don't have any evidence
that it's a biological phenomenon."
Akiko Iwasaki, an immunologist at Yale University, said the
news should encourage people to "double-down" on their efforts to
stay safe through mask-wearing, avoiding indoor crowding, and
getting vaccinated as soon they have access.
"Honestly, the more you can avoid interaction altogether, the
better," Iwasaki said. "Obviously some people don't have that
luxury."
She said she is comforted by data showing vaccines will still
work against this variant, but there are already other variants
spreading – and more to come.
"You don't want to be fear-mongering, but this really is a
problem," she said.
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