今天浏览一位同行的博客，她转载了2005年11月24日《新科学家》的一则报道——Expert says bird flu has killed 300 people in China。读罢报道，我着实吃了一惊。
《新科学家》援引2005年11月22日《法兰克福汇报》的文章称，日本国立传染病研究所病毒学家田代真人(Masato Tashiro)在2005年11月19日德国Marburg举行的一次会议上透露“300 people have died of H5N1 bird flu in China, including seven cases caused by human-to-human transmission”，“he said the numbers came from sources he trusted, while he was in Hunan province for the WHO, working with Chinese investigators on the recent H5N1 outbreak there”。
300名中国人已经死于禽流感？出现七宗禽流感人传人的案例？果真如此的话，咱们的狗年春节肯定会在极度恐慌当中度过了。
实际情况是怎样的呢？2005年11月24日，田代在国际传染病协会的ProMED-mail上发表声明，澄清事实真相：
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In my presentation at the meeting in Marburg, I stated that WHO's official numbers of H5N1 human cases are only based on laboratory confirmed cases. It should be therefore an iceberg phenomenon. Due to poorly organized surveillance and information sharing systems in many affected countries including China, it is reasonable to consider that more cases have occurred actually. We have heard many 'rumors' or unauthorized information which we cannot confirm. In this context, I talked about a few examples of non-authorized information and rumors about Asian countries which I received through private channels. I clarified that I do not know the original sources and I cannot confirm whether they are true, how these numbers were derived and what laboratory tests and epidemiological investigation were done.
Therefore, the article cited in ProMed-mail is incorrect and misleading. I did not receive any interview during my stay in Germany. I did not say anything that I believe the figures of the unauthorized information.
My message at the meeting was that international societies should help China to establish and perform nationwide surveillance and information sharing systems. I do not think that the Chinese Authority will conceal the facts from the world. Since the SARS event, they are collaborative to WHO. But they may have still limited capacity to monitor all human cases particularly in rural areas. |
《新科学家》在2005年11月24日的那则报道中说，“Tashiro(田代) could not be reached for comment today”。但这句话并不能完全推卸其责任：在未经核实的情况下刊发报道。
在这种情况下，世界卫生组织也站出来辟谣。据联合国网站新闻中心2005年11月25日报道：
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世界卫生组织今天表示，中国没有隐瞒禽流感病例，中国向卫生组织通报禽流感疫情及时、透明。
本周早些时候有媒体报道说，一位日本科学家田代真人在今年参加卫生组织对中国的访问时，听到禽流感导致中国上百人死亡的传言。田代真人是卫生组织一个合作实验室的负责人。
卫生组织发言人汤普森指出，这位日本科学家已澄清了这些说法。汤普森说，田代医生并没有参加今年卫生组织对中国的访问，卫生组织不相信中国隐瞒了任何禽流感病例，中国向卫生组织通报病例是及时和透明的。 |
几天后，也就是2005年11月28日，《新科学家》在采访到田代本人以后，刊发了一则后续报道——Official Chinese bird flu deaths could be 'tip of iceberg'。不过，《新科学家》似乎没有为前一篇报道的失实之处道歉。另外，俺看不懂德文，不知道《法兰克福汇报》是否为此道歉。
瞧瞧人家ProMED-mail就知道公开承认错误：“ProMED-mail was not able to verify the accuracy of the newspaper report prior to posting and we regret propagating inaccurate information.”
话说回来，《新科学家》上面还有很多优秀的科学报道值得俺认真学习的。
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