Wang.Huiyao:China’s.experience.shows.COVID-19.2nd.wave.neednt.be.a.disaster

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By Wang Huiyao | President of the Center
for China and Globalization(CCG)
The good news is Beijing’s experience shows we can tame
second waves in a way that minimises disruption through greater
preparedness and understanding
In the next stretch of the battle against the coronavirus,
global anti-pandemic efforts need to be smarter and more
collaborative
By early June, life in Beijing had largely returned to normal.
Roads and restaurants were full again. Almost two months went by
without a locally-acquired infection.
On June 11, a sudden spike of cases linked to a wholesale
market brought back painful memories of Wuhan in January. However,
unlike our first encounter with the virus, this time there was no
citywide lockdown. Outside high-risk areas, life went on and the
outbreak is now under control.
It is a reminder that Covid-19 spreads silently and can
reappear at any time. Complete eradication is virtually impossible,
a fact underlined by the re-emergence of clusters around the world,
from Australia and Germany to Israel and South Korea.
The first difference is our level of understanding and
preparedness. During early outbreaks, we knew little and were
ill-equipped to deal with the virus. Facing uncertainty, sweeping
lockdowns were the only way to avert potential catastrophe.
While many unknowns remain, we now have a better idea of how
the virus spreads and affects people. Cities like Beijing have
developed an immune system of structures and mechanisms that can
spring into action when needed.
The second difference is how our time horizons have changed.
Early lockdowns were a race against time to halt contagion at any
cost before health care systems were overwhelmed. Now, we know the
virus is out in the world and will linger until a vaccine arrives.
We are more aware of the impact of lockdowns and how they affect
our long-run ability to overcome and recover from the pandemic. The
challenge we now face is more like a marathon than a sprint.
These new conditions change the calculus of pandemic
management. Saving lives remains the priority, but we can and must
think holistically about actions we take to suppress the
virus.
As second waves sweep the world, overuse of blanket lockdowns
will only exacerbate the pandemic’s economic fallout. We are
already facing the worst recession since World War II, according to
the World Bank, with global GDP forecast to shrink by 5.2 per cent
this year. Worldwide, more than one in six young people are out of
work because of the coronavirus, according to the International
Labour Organisation.
Decisions to shut down cities are often framed as a direct
trade-off between health and wealth. The longer the pandemic goes
on, though, the more blurred this distinction becomes.
For one, lockdowns also kill people by disrupting health care
and livelihoods. Avoidable non-coronavirus deaths from diseases
such as cancer and measles are mounting, as are concerns about
domestic violence and mental health.
Furthermore, blunt restrictions strangle economic activity and
deplete the reserves we need for a long-haul battle. For
individuals, savings run low and fatigue sets in, affecting
compliance. State funds for treatment and prevention dwindle.
Optimising our strategy for this new, prolonged phase of the
pandemic means considering its health, economic and social
dimensions together. Rather than sweeping measures, efforts to deal
with each new cluster should be targeted according to risk. A
calibrated approach allows us to focus resources on critical areas
and replenish strength when possible for the uphill struggles to
come.
As for what a calibrated approach looks like, Beijing’s
response points to two key ingredients. The first is data. When
decision makers fly blind, one-size-fits-all measures are the only
option. Data enables a more granular approach.
Beijing tested nearly 2.3 million residents within a week and
notified at-risk citizens by text message. Each of the city’s
300-plus subdistricts were categorised by risk, with 41 deemed
medium or high risk at the peak of the outbreak. Forty communities
were isolated. Elsewhere in the city, life and business could go on
with certain precautions.
Responsive social mechanisms are the second ingredient of a
calibrated response. Government, the private sector and non-profits
collaborated to gather, disseminate and act on data. Grass-roots
teams applied relevant measures for individual neighbourhoods,
buildings and organisations.
Other cities such as Hong Kong, Seoul and Singapore have also
shown data-driven solutions can stop outbreaks early with less
disruption than mass lockdowns. Research by the ILO supports this,
finding that lost working hours can be cut by 50 per cent with
effective test and trace systems.
The benefits of a calibrated approach should not be denied to
countries that lack resources. Forced to choose between risky
reopening and costly lockdowns, many developing countries will find
the latter unbearable as time goes on.
This will cause local suffering and create reservoirs of
potential reinfection for other countries. Each country will have
to design their own systems by adapting best practices to local
conditions, but the international community should do more to make
relevant tools and expertise available.
Life in Beijing is returning to normal again after the Dragon
Boat Festival. The last two weeks show how far we have come in our
struggle but also how far there is to go. In the next stretch,
global anti-pandemic efforts need to be smarter and more
collaborative. When it comes to the coronavirus marathon, no
country can cross the finishing line alone.
From South China Morning Post,
2020-7-2