（在大波士顿地区“2014新年华人商业论坛”上的演讲摘要）

大家下午好！

最近美国股市低头下跌，令不少投资者心里发慌，暂时无法判断接下来是继续下跌还是掉头上扬。我的看法是：对于美国资本市场的投资者来说，2014年一定要看两个人的脸色行事：奥巴马和耶伦。奥巴马和耶伦近期的财政货币政策开始触及美国股市的软肋，搞不好可能会有麻烦。

回顾一下过去五、六年美国股市的走势特征，不难得出这样一个结论：美国股市的上涨已经离不开量化宽松货币政策的支撑，或者说持续膨胀的货币泡沫是推动美国股市持续走高的鸦片，这正是美国股市的软肋。现在奥巴马和耶伦被夹在货币泡沫和财政悬崖之间，试图结束量化宽松货币政策，通过“戒毒”策略减少债务，但这是一步险棋，若用力太猛，可能导致的最大风险是刺破股市货币泡沫，进而引发资本市场的危机。今天是2014年的2月2日，中国马年的大年初二，美国股市的下跌或许才刚刚开始，除非美联储宣布暂不中止量化宽松的货币政策。

前不久，奥巴马在国情咨文中称，美国经济持续好转，2014年美国将是全球最具投资吸引力的国家，这似乎是为结束量化宽松政策营造氛围。我越来越觉得奥巴马选耶伦作搭档，或许是为了给民主党及奥巴马第二任，放一颗政绩卫星——结束持久的财政赤字，为下一届总统选举打下良好的铺垫。但是如果股市泡沫破裂，一切将化为乌有。因此，如何才能做到既策略地减少财政赤字，又能防止货币泡沫破裂，这才是考验奥巴马及美联储智慧的关键。在这里，我告诫美国股市的华人投资者：一定要谨慎，不要被奥巴马和耶伦的“二人转”忽悠进去了。

     美国股市从 2009年3月5日的6628点，一路攀升到2013年12月31日的16580点，五年净增长了约一万点。到底是什么神奇的因素支撑了金融危机后美国股市持续火爆的走势呢？大家不妨先看看下面这张过去五年美国道琼斯指数的走势图：

上图显示，遭受2008年金融危机冲击后的美国股市，从2009年初开始止跌反弹，并在此后连续三轮量化宽松货币政策的推动每股一路高歌。但是当奥巴马及美联储释放将要结束量化宽松货币政策的信号后，美股即可变脸，从2014年1月份开始掉头向下。我把美国股市过去五年的连续攀高的历程分为三个阶段作一简要分析。

A-B为第一阶段，这个阶段推动股市上行的动力来自第一轮量化宽松货币政策的泡沫效应：2008年的次贷危机引发金融危机后，美联储连续7次下调联邦市场利率，至2008年底，利率已降至0%-0.25%的低位，实际上启动了零利率政策。但信贷市场紧缩严重，货币政策传导机制不畅，经济衰退的程度有持续走低的迹象。在这一背景下，美联储经过“审慎”酝酿，于2009年3月启动了第一轮的量化宽松货币政策（QE1）。截止到QE1结束的时候，美联邦储备总共投放了大约17250亿美元的基础货币，具体分为以下三项：12500亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券、3000亿美元的美国国债和1750亿美元的机构证券。

B-C为第二阶段，这个阶段推动股市上行的动力来自第一轮及第二次量化宽松货币政策之泡沫的叠加效应：虽然QE1对于“紧急拯救”金融业产生了立竿见影的效果，对当时随时可能崩溃的金融业确实起到了一定作用，但是对刺激消费和增加就业的帮助却不明显。因此，美联储于2010年11月3日开始启动了第二轮量化宽松货币政策。具体措施包括：基准利率维持在0-0.25%的低水平上，并且斥资6000亿美元购买财政部发行的长期债券，预计每个月购买额为750亿美元，直到2011年第二季度。

C-D为第三阶段，这个阶段推动股市上行的动力来自前两轮及第三次量化宽松货币政策之泡沫的叠加效应：虽然QEI和QE2实施后，向金融体系提供了大量的流动性，股票市场持续走高，从某种程度上振奋了国民的信心，但是实体经济投资增长乏力、就业状况改善不佳、贸易逆差压力仍然突出。因此，美联储于2012年9月15日推出了第三轮量化宽松货币政策（QE3），宣布每月购买400亿的抵押贷款支持证券。

    当然，连续实施的三轮量化宽松货币政策，最大的好处是防止了货币泡沫破裂而可能导致的金融的体系崩溃，但是其最大的弊端在于给市场输出了更多的货币泡沫。可以确切地判定：自这一轮金融危机爆发后，美国股市连续五年的持续大幅上涨，并非产业经济拉动的结果，而是靠货币泡沫直接推动的结果。但是，如果仔细分析过去五年美国的很多经济数据，会发现连续三轮的QE政策的实施，并没有实质性改善劳动就业，失业率一直在7%左右徘徊；对实体经济的推动作用并非预料的那么明显，虽然奥巴马在国情咨文中畅谈2014年经济前景多么美好，但是巨大的货币刺激换来的一瞬光彩并不意味着明天会漫天彩霞。实际情况是，实体经济的复苏及结构完善，正在艰难的爬行阶段；就业市场的弹性空间已经十分有限；全球经济大环境的不确定性还很大。

综上所述，我认为：如果美联储结束量化宽松货币政策，则意味着结束了给股市输送货币泡沫机制，但若没有配套的“护卫”措施，美国股市可能会进入一个较长时期、较大深度的回调。其实美股理性地回调是必要的，但若引发剧烈的股市震荡，就会再次引爆金融危机，因为上一轮金融危机中，大量的风险要素并没有得以释放，只是通过QE策略包裹起来了。这个判断仅供投资界的朋友作参考。但是，有两个原因将迫使奥巴马政府不会放任股市持续的下跌：一是大量的养老保险资金一直蛰伏在股市；二是只有股市及金融衍生交易市场吸纳大量货币泡沫，才有利于缓解就业及通胀压力。因此不要看奥巴马耶伦说了什么，而要看他们到底会做什么。

[更多资讯请阅读公众微信“濡山财道”

------------------------------------------------------------                                      The weakness of U.S. stock market

Rushan Jiang (Fellow in Harvard Kennedy School )

    （Summary of the lecture at the business forum of 2014 Chinese New Year in Great Boson Area.）

Good afternoon everyone!

Many investors have been feeling nervous about the recent fall-down of the U.S. stock market, and found it difficult to predict whether the stock market will continue to fall or rise next. In my opinion, in 2014, the investors in U.S. capital markets must closely watch the decisions made by two people: President Obama and Ms. Yellen. The recent fiscal and monetary policies of President Obama and Ms. Yellen exposed the weakness of the U.S. stock market, which might bring the U.S. stock market into a big trouble.

If we recall the U.S. stock market trend in the past five or six years, it is not difficult for us to have the following conclusion: the rising of the U.S. stock market cannot live without the quantitative easing monetary policy. In other words, the continuing monetary expansion bubble is the opium that pushes the U.S. stock market to continuously rise. This is the weakness of the U.S. stock market. Now President Obama and Ms. Yellen have been stuck between the monetary bubbles and the fiscal cliff. They are trying to terminate the quantitative easing monetary policy to reduce the debt, however, if the termination of the quantitative easing monetary policy is not well-controlled, the stock market bubble might come to an abrupt, and bankrupt thousands of unfortunate investors.

Today is February 2, 2014, the second day of the traditional Chinese New Year (Year of the Horse), and please remember this moment: the fall-down of the U.S. stock market perhaps just begins, unless FED temporarily announces that the quantitative easing monetary policy will not be suspended --- this is obviously impossible.

In the recent state of the unions address, President Obama mentioned that the U.S. economy is continuing to improve and the United States will become the world's most attractive country for investment in 2014. It seems to me that he is creating the suitable atmosphere for terminating the quantitative easing monetary policy. I feel that the reason that President Obama chooses Ms. Yellen as the partner is to lay a good groundwork for the Democrats and their next-term president through their efforts of putting an end to the long-lasting deficit. However, if the stock market bubble bursts, all their efforts will be meaningless. Therefore, here is the challenge for President Obama and FED: how to both reduce the fiscal deficit and prevent the stock market bubbles from bursting. My advice for the Chinese investors in the U.S. stock market is that we must be careful and not fooled by the tricks of President Obama and Ms. Yellen.

 The Dow Jones index (DJI) has climbing sharply from 6628 points in Mar, 5^th, 2009 to 16580 points in Dec 31^st, 2013 with the increase of about 10000 points within the last five years. What are the magic factors that support the continuing rising trend of the U.S. stock market after the financial crisis? Let us first look at the following figure showing the DJI trend in the last five years.

This figure shows that after the financial crisis in 2008, the U.S. stock market starts to rebound since early 2009, and continues rising through the next three round of quantitative easing monetary policies.  However, it is very likely that the U.S. stock market would fall down sharply starting from Jan 2014 if President Obama and Ms. Yellen decide to release the signal of terminating the quantitative easing monetary policy. Next I am going to make a brief analysis of the continuous rising US stock market history in the last five years by dividing it into three stages.

Stage 1(A-B): it is the bubble effects from the first round quantitative easing monetary policy that keeps the stock market sustains the upward momentum. Since the financial crisis in 2008, Fed has reduced the interest rates seven times, and the interest rate has dropped to 0%-0.25% (nearly zero interest rate) by the end of 2008. Due to the serious credit crunch and poor monetary policy transmission mechanism, there is a sign that the U.S. economy has continued to decline. In this context, after prudent consideration Federal Reserve launched the first round quantitative easing monetary policy (QE1) in Mar, 2009. By the end of QE1, the U.S. Federal Reserve has invested a total amount of approximately $1.725 trillion base money, which is specifically divided into the following three items: $1.25 trillion of mortgage-backed securities, $300 billion of U.S. Treasury and $175 billion in agency securities.

Stage 2 (B-C): The underlying drive supporting the continuous rising of the stock market comes from the superimposed effects of the first and second round quantitative easing monetary policies. While QE1 had an immediate effect for rescuing the financial industry, and played certain role in preventing the financial industry from collapsing, it did not help much to stimulate consumption and increase employment. Therefore, on Nov. 3rd, 2010, the FED launched its second round of quantitative easing monetary policy. Specific measures include maintaining the benchmark interest rate at a low level of 0-0.25%, and spending $600 billion buying long-term Treasury bonds by purchasing $75 billion per month until the second quarter of 2011.

Stage 3 (C-D):，The driving force behind the continuous rising of the stock market is the superimposed effects of the previous two round and third round quantitative easing monetary policies. To some extent, the implementation of QEI and QE2 ensures a high degree of liquidity of the financial system, the continuous rising of the stock market, and the increased confidence of citizens. However, the trade deficit pressures remain very high because of the sluggish real economy investments and poor improvement of the employment conditions. Therefore, on September 15th, 2012, the Federal Reserve launched the third round of quantitative easing monetary policy (QE3), announcing the purchase of 40 billion of mortgage-backed securities per month. Of course, the biggest benefit of implementing the three successive quantitative easing monetary policy is to prevent the money bubble burst and the possible collapse of the financial system afterwards. However, the biggest flaw is injecting more money bubble to the financial market. There is no doubt that the continuous rising of the U.S. stock market within the last five years since the financial crisis is driven by the money bubbles rather than the development of the industrial economy. However, a careful analysis of U.S. economic data over the past five years reveals that the implementation of the successive three rounds of QE policies did not help to improve the employment substantially, and the unemployment rate has been hovering around 7%. Also it did not help much to boost the real economy as expected. Although in the State of the Union address, President Obama described a wonderful vision of the future economic in 2014, the temporary economic growth due to the stimulus of monetary policy does not necessarily indicates the glory of economic growth in the future. The reality is that the real economy is struggling in the recovery and optimizing its structure, the flexible space of the employment market is very limited, and the global economic environment is still highly uncertain.

To sum up, in my opinion, if the FED terminates its quantitative easing monetary policy, it marks the end of the mechanism injecting money bubble to the stock market. The U.S. stock market may enter a long and deep fall-down period before rebound if there are no corresponding effective guarding measures. It is necessary to ensure the rational rebound of the U.S. stock market. Otherwise if it triggers the stock market shock, it is possible that the financial crisis will come to us again. The underlying reason is that a large number of risk factors were not released in the last financial crisis, but wrapped up by the QE policies only.

This is my personal analysis and hope it might be useful for anyone from the investment community.