今年的圣诞对于纽约人来说比以往都要冷，08年11月相比07年11月，房价中位价下降了8.59%，创历史最大11月跌幅。而06年的时候，涨幅最高时则较前一年同比上升近23%。图一显示了房价的涨幅变化趋势，可以看到作为美国房价的缩影，纽约房价经过了多年10%-20%的涨幅至07年持平，再到08年相较07年同比下降高达8.59%，可见金融危机的诞生地房价的影响之重。图二则是房屋价格绝对值的变化曲线，可以看到本次房价跌幅远超任何危机乃至911对美国的影响。事实上很多美国家庭的存款不会超过2万美金，基本大家都在还贷以及消费，所以房价下降意味着部分自06年开始购房的房主之前的还贷已经变为负值，更不要说对于失去工作的人来说，也就等同于失去了房子，这个在美国很多人存了多年来预防养老问题的财产。

Updated the S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index graphs with the November release data. These graphs show all indicies for the NY Metro Commutable Area. As the name implies, this price index covers regions that are within commutable distance to New York City and does include other states. New to the series is the condo index, which has been added to the graphs.

The aggregate index shows home prices in this region peaking in June of 2006. The total price decline to date in the aggregate index is 13.45%. The tiered price index gives us a bit more visibility into the price movement of different categories of homes.

Low Tier (Under $320407) - Peaked in October 2006 and is down 15.52% from peak

Mid Tier ($320407 - $476338) - Peaked in September 2006 and is down 14.76% from peak

High Tier (Over $476338) - Peaked in June 2006 and is down 9.72% from peak

Aggregate (Overall Market) - Peaked in June 2006 and is down 13.45% from peak

The first graph is the year over year change in the index.

The second graph is straight index value.

It is still too early to be calling for any kind of bottom in the region. Unlike other regions that show home price declines beginning to slow, the declines appear to be accelerating in our region. In fact, the most recent data point is the steepest decline since the last cycle. The rate of decline peaked at 8.9% in March of 1991. See below:

S&P CS NY Commutable Year over Year Price Change
Jan 07 -0.34%
Feb 07 -0.91%
Mar 07 -0.91%
Apr 07 -1.56%
May 07 -2.35%
Jun 07 -2.94%
Jul 07 -3.20%
Aug 07 -3.35%
Sep 07 -3.60%
Oct 07 -4.09%
Nov 07 -4.61%
Dec 07 -5.48%
Jan 08 -5.80%
Feb 08 -6.70%
Mar 08 -7.48%
Apr 08 -7.98%
May 08 -7.74%
Jun 08 -7.04%
Jul 08 -7.03%
Aug 08 -6.60%
Sep 08 -7.13%
Oct 08 -7.65%
Nov 08 -8.59%