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封基折价猜想。
(2008-09-04 16:00:00)
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杂谈 |
最近的封基可以说显得极为抗跌，不但由于仓位低而在不断下跌中保持了较小的损失，而且由于折价的关系使得跌幅更小于净值的跌幅，当然其中不是每只都能依靠折价减少损失，但绝大部分的封基确实以损失折价的代价而达到了更加抗跌的现象，显然这个情况让我等准备加仓的人无法找到更好的机会，现在的情况很显然是封基持有者惜售造成的，2277点的位置，和20％～30％的折价让部分持有人心中还是有点底气的。闲着就瞎想，什么时候才能等到价格跌幅大于净值跌幅而出现折价的扩大呢，短期内大跌？跌破2000点，能扩大吗？不晓得，如果是我跌破2000点估计20％～30％的折价也要进了，那么还有什么情况是可以在不跌破两千点，甚至是高于2200点的时候造成扩大呢，这么想吧，如果这个市场在这个点位来回振荡，一年那么还会有这么多人持有不抛吗？当年封基接近50％的折价也是经历的漫长的折腾，而现在短短的几个月想彻底挫伤封基投资人的信心显然是不现实的，那么怎么办呢：或者静静等待，或者坚持到底。别无选择。
以下是ｓｔｏｒｍｓｏｎ的净值预测（9.4）
| 名称 | 周初净值 | 预测净值 | 净值增长 | 周初市价 | 现价 | 市价增长 | 最低分配 | 折价率 | 除权折价率 | 预测仓位 |
| 同盛 | 0.870 | 0.835 | -4.05% | 0.608 | 0.584 | -3.95% | (0.165) | 30.05% | 25.09% | 65.92% |
| 通乾 | 1.225 | 1.163 | -5.01% | 0.888 | 0.820 | -7.66% | 0.163 | 29.50% | 34.32% | 72.37% |
| 金鑫 | 0.787 | 0.760 | -3.41% | 0.546 | 0.537 | -1.65% | (0.240) | 29.39% | 22.35% | 55.90% |
| 景福 | 1.149 | 1.097 | -4.44% | 0.818 | 0.779 | -4.77% | 0.097 | 29.02% | 31.85% | 64.96% |
| 同益 | 1.071 | 1.024 | -4.37% | 0.761 | 0.728 | -4.34% | 0.024 | 28.89% | 29.57% | 67.33% |
| 景宏 | 1.354 | 1.306 | -3.51% | 0.969 | 0.931 | -3.92% | 0.306 | 28.72% | 37.51% | 66.04% |
| 普丰 | 1.067 | 1.021 | -4.27% | 0.754 | 0.730 | -3.18% | 0.021 | 28.51% | 29.11% | 65.58% |
| 普惠 | 1.347 | 1.290 | -4.25% | 0.970 | 0.922 | -4.95% | 0.290 | 28.50% | 36.76% | 69.74% |
| 天元 | 1.145 | 1.101 | -3.84% | 0.816 | 0.788 | -3.43% | 0.101 | 28.41% | 31.28% | 57.87% |
| 汉兴 | 1.345 | 1.276 | -5.13% | 0.957 | 0.916 | -4.28% | 0.252 | 28.22% | 35.17% | 65.41% |
| 银丰 | 0.888 | 0.850 | -4.29% | 0.629 | 0.611 | -2.86% | (0.150) | 28.11% | 23.89% | 58.63% |
| 科瑞 | 1.007 | 0.964 | -4.26% | 0.737 | 0.694 | -5.83% | (0.036) | 28.01% | 27.01% | 64.44% |
| 裕隆 | 1.017 | 0.988 | -2.79% | 0.750 | 0.717 | -4.40% | (0.039) | 27.46% | 26.41% | 52.08% |
| 久嘉 | 0.790 | 0.759 | -3.92% | 0.571 | 0.556 | -2.63% | (0.241) | 26.73% | 20.29% | 56.97% |
| 鸿阳 | 0.700 | 0.670 | -4.34% | 0.509 | 0.500 | -1.77% | (0.330) | 25.36% | 16.99% | 72.10% |
| 兴和 | 1.025 | 0.985 | -3.84% | 0.765 | 0.736 | -3.79% | (0.015) | 25.29% | 24.92% | 52.77% |
| 裕阳 | 1.415 | 1.384 | -2.21% | 1.095 | 1.044 | -4.66% | 0.384 | 24.56% | 33.99% | 66.20% |
| 丰和 | 0.714 | 0.678 | -5.04% | 0.529 | 0.515 | -2.65% | (0.322) | 24.03% | 16.29% | 69.54% |
| 金泰 | 0.914 | 0.878 | -3.99% | 0.688 | 0.670 | -2.62% | (0.122) | 23.66% | 20.76% | 56.65% |
| 汉盛 | 1.627 | 1.547 | -4.93% | 1.234 | 1.184 | -4.05% | 0.547 | 23.47% | 36.31% | 67.15% |
| 安信 | 1.446 | 1.399 | -3.25% | 1.128 | 1.078 | -4.43% | 0.399 | 22.95% | 32.11% | 45.28% |
| 安顺 | 1.236 | 1.188 | -3.86% | 0.943 | 0.926 | -1.80% | 0.188 | 22.08% | 26.23% | 45.85% |
| 开元 | 0.836 | 0.794 | -5.00% | 0.662 | 0.641 | -3.17% | (0.206) | 19.25% | 15.28% | 79.62% |
| 兴华 | 1.080 | 1.050 | -2.77% | 0.878 | 0.867 | -1.25% | 0.050 | 17.40% | 18.27% | 50.92% |
| 泰和 | 0.779 | 0.742 | -4.67% | 0.651 | 0.627 | -3.69% | (0.258) | 15.54% | 11.53% | 71.51% |
| 裕泽 | 0.919 | 0.900 | -2.10% | 0.776 | 0.779 | 0.39% | (0.100) | 13.44% | 12.10% | 21.82% |
| 天华 | 0.896 | 0.862 | -3.82% | 0.817 | 0.763 | -6.61% | (0.138) | 11.44% | 9.85% | 64.09% |
| 金盛 | 1.118 | 1.076 | -3.76% | 1.010 | 0.967 | -4.26% | 0.076 | 10.10% | 10.86% | 64.54% |
| 汉鼎 | 1.235 | 1.200 | -2.76% | 1.146 | 1.146 | 0.00% | 0.200 | 4.54% | 5.45% | 72.05% |
| 科翔 | 1.665 | 1.613 | -3.11% | 1.600 | 1.600 | 0.00% | 0.613 | 0.84% | 1.35% | 64.92% |
| 科汇 | 1.293 | 1.240 | -4.09% | 1.331 | 1.331 | 0.00% | 0.240 | -7.30% | -9.06% | 62.87% |
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