The Obama effect

奥巴马印象

Nov 7th 2008

From the Economist Intelligence Unit ViewsWire

刘思坤 译

Barack Obama may not change much in the Middle East after all

巴拉克·奥巴马可能最终不会过多地改变中东政策

Barack Obama's election victory has caught the imagination of people across the world and has done much to restore the image of the US, which has taken a battering under the Bush administration, nowhere more so than in the Middle East. Mr Obama's immediate priority will be the US economy, but the Middle East will also be high on his policy agenda, both in respect of the heavy security commitments that the US has in the region and because of its central role in the world energy market.

巴拉克·奥巴马选举获胜引来全世界人们的想象，并在很大程度上修复了被布什政府损害的美国印象，其损害的原因莫过于中东政策了。奥巴马当前的要务是恢复美国经济，但是因为美国在此地区有过重要的安全承诺，因为美国是世界能源市场的中心，中东问题在他的政治日程中也很重要。

His first challenge in the Middle East will be to decide on the future of the US troop deployment in Iraq. He will also be under pressure to elaborate coherent policies towards Iran and on the Arab-Israeli conflict, and he will need to establish a new basis for US relations with the Gulf Arab states, whose global importance has increased over the past few years thanks both to their oil and gas resources and their financial clout.

面对中东问题的第一个挑战是决定美国军队在伊拉克的部署。面对伊朗问题和阿拉伯——以色列冲突，奥巴马还将在制定一以贯之的政策时面临压力，他还需要为美国与阿拉伯海湾国家的关系建立新的基础。在过去的几年时间，阿拉伯国家依靠着油气资源和金融影响力，在全球变得越来越重要。

Mr Obama has indicated that he plans to draw down US troop levels in Iraq over the first 16 months of his administration, while bolstering the NATO presence in Afghanistan. This is not incompatible with existing policy. The Bush administration has been trying to nail down a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) with the Iraqi government before the UN mandate covering the presence of US forces in Iraq runs out at the end of this year. The agreement would cover the period up to end-2011, by which time the Iraqi government has indicated that it wants all US forces to have left its territory. Iraq has demanded a series of changes to the US draft, including stronger Iraqi judicial controls and curbs on US operations across Iraq's borders. The US has made some concessions, but has also threatened to cut off economic and military support. It now seems likely that the SOFA may not be signed by the year-end deadline. However, the existing mandate could be extended by the UN Security Council for a few months, with responsibility for concluding the deal being transferred to the Obama team. He will no doubt be conscious of the risk of appearing to be a soft touch to the Iraqis in what could well be one of the first foreign policy tests of his administration.

奥巴马已经表明，他计划在他执政的前16个月内削减驻伊拉克的美国军队，这实际上是支持北约（NATO）干预阿富汗问题。这与现行政策不符。布什政府一直在努力，试图在联合国于年底授权接替伊拉克美军之前，迫使伊拉克政府签署军事情况协定（SOFA）。协议的生效时间将到2011年年底，到时伊拉克政府希望所有的美国军队离开本国的领土。伊拉克要求美军实现一系列变化：包括更强大的伊拉克司法控制和抑制美军对伊拉克的边界管制。美国也做出了一些让步，但依然以切断经济和军事援助作为威胁。现在看来，军事情况协定可能不会再年底这一大限签订。但是，现存的授权将由联合国安理会（UN Security Council）延长数月，为的是将现有事务移交给奥巴马团队。作为奥巴马政府的外交政策实验的第一课，他当然深知“让伊拉克人觉得自己好欺负”所带来的风险。

His mettle will also be tested on the Iran nuclear question. Mr Obama has indicated that he is in favour of dialogue with Iran, but he is likely to approach this with great caution, as there is a clear risk that any perceived weakness would be exploited by Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, as he gears up for his own election campaign. Mr Obama is likely to consult closely with his European allies before embarking on any dramatic initiative towards Iran. The prospect of improved relations with the US could also be dangled in front of the Iranian electorate as a potential reward for voting Mr Ahmadinejad out of office in favour of a reformist candidate, such as the former president, Mohammed Khatami.

奥巴马精神也会在伊朗核问题上得到考验。奥巴马已经表态他愿意与伊朗展开对话，但是他也保持警醒，因为有明显的迹象表明，伊朗总统马莫得·爱哈卖迪内甲德为了给自己的竞选运动造势，会把觉察到的（美国的）所有弱点公知于众。奥巴马将在着手与伊朗主动接触前与欧洲同盟密切磋商。与美国改良关系的期望将使得“利用伊朗全体选民的力量参与竞选”变得不确定：因为选民只会把选票投给革命主义的候选人爱哈卖迪内甲德，就像他们的前总统穆罕默德·哈塔米那样。（而不是投给与美国保持良好关系的爱哈卖迪内甲德——译者注）

In February, the month after he assumes office, Mr Obama will have to assess the results of the Israeli election. If Kadima's Tzipi Livni becomes prime minister, he would have a more promising basis for embarking on a new round of diplomacy on the Israel-Palestine and Israel-Syria fronts than would be the case if Binyamin Netanyahu were to win. Dennis Ross, who was the chief US Middle East envoy in the Clinton era, is part of the Obama team and will bring invaluable experience to the table.

2月份，也就是奥巴马宣誓就职的次月，他将不得不应对以色列竞选的结果。如果前进党（Kadima）的齐皮·利夫尼（Tzipi Livni）当选为总理，而不是本杰明·内塔尼亚胡（Binyamin Netanyahu）获胜的话，那么在巴以问题和以色列——叙利亚问题上，将更容易建立全新的外交政策基础。丹尼斯·罗斯（Dennis Ross）作为克林顿时期美国的中东事务特使，将作为奥巴马团队的一员，带来不可估量的经验。

Mr Obama is a paid-up subscriber to the goal of reducing US dependence on the Middle East for its energy needs. However, for the next eight years at least the US will continue to import increasing quantities of Middle East oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG), and even if the US does manage to curb its oil consumption, energy trends in the Middle East will still have an impact on the US by virtue of their global importance. This will render it imperative for Mr Obama to maintain the tradition of close US relations with Saudi Arabia, which dates back to the latter days of Franklin D Roosevelt, a president whose handling of the aftermath of the 1929 Wall Street crash has set the bar for officials dealing with the current crisis.

奥巴马注定要削减美国在能源需求上对中东地区的依赖程度。但是，至少在未来8年内，美国将继续从中东进口越来越多的石油和液态天然气（LNG），即便美国试图限制自身的石油消耗，凭借中东自身的全球影响力，其能源走势依然对美国有影响。这将使奥巴马再次重视保持“美国与沙特阿拉伯国家的密切关系”的传统。这一传统可以回溯到富兰克林·罗斯福执政的后期，当时罗斯福成功应对了1929年华尔街危机所造成的后果，他的成功为官员们处理当下的危机树立了标杆。

原文网址：

http://www.economist.com/daily/news/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12582712