MACD与KDJ：双金叉策略

译者： 卡普拉洛娃 原作者：Glenda Dowie (investopedia)

入门级的技术理论。股票交易最常用的指标——MACD和KDJ。初瞄一眼，可能觉得简单的都可以叫简陋。不过将简单的技术方法融入自己的交易模式却需花很长时间。如果能在各种市场中熟练运用这两个指标，实在难能可贵。作者隐藏的亮点在于金叉后下单，也就是右侧交易。

Ask any technical trader and he or she will tell you that the right indicator is needed to effectively determine a change of course in a stocks' price patterns. But anything that one "right" indicator can do to help a trader, two complimentary indicators can do better. This article aims to encourage traders to look for and identify a simultaneous bullish MACD crossover along with a bullish stochastic crossover and then use this as the entry point to trade.  

       但凡问上任何一个技术派的交易者，他都会告诉你，你需要有正确的指标以有效决定股价模型中趋势的变化。但如果任何一个“正确的”指标可以帮到交易者，那么两个互补的（译者注：原文complimentary，根据上下文，疑为complementary）指标可以做的更好。本文旨在鼓励交易者去寻找和确认同时发生的MACD金叉和KDJ金叉，然后以此做为交易的买入点。

Pairing the Stochastic and MACD

Looking for two popular indicators that work well together resulted in this pairing of the stochastic oscillator and the moving average convergence divergence (MACD). This team works because the stochastic is comparing a stock's closing price to its price range over a certain period of time, while the MACD is the formation of two moving averages diverging from and converging with each other. This dynamic combination is highly effective if used to its fullest potential. (For background reading on each of these indicators, see Getting To Know Oscillators: Stochastics and A Primer On The MACD.)

将KDJ和MACD指标配对使用

    人们寻找两个能很好地同时使用的大众指标组合，结果诞生了KDJ和平滑异同移动平均线（MACD）的组合。这组指标之所以有效，是因为KDJ指标是将一段时间内一只股票的收盘价格与价格波动区间做对比，而MACD指标是由两条互相离合的移动平均成本线所构成。这对活跃的组合一旦被运用到极致会非常有效。（关于此二指标的更多详情请参看《了解摆动指标：KDJ和初级MACD读本》。）

Working the Stochastic

如何使用KDJ指标  

There are two components to the stochastic oscillator: the %K and the %D. The %K is the main line indicating the number of time periods, and the %D is the moving average of the %K.

       KDJ指标包括两个因子：K和D。K为主线，表明时间周期的数目，D是K的移动平均值。  

Understanding how the stochastic is formed is one thing, but knowing how it will react in different situations is more important. For instance:  

      了解KDJ指标是如何形成的是一回事，而知道在不同的情况下该指标如何反应却更为重要。举例如下：  

Common triggers occur when the %K line drops below 20 - the stock is considered oversold, and it is a buying signal.

      普通触发点发生于当股票的K线向下跌至20以下——该股被视为超卖，是一个买入信号。  

If the %K peaks just below 100, then heads downward, the stock should be sold before that value drops below 80.  

      如果K值还未触及100即掉头向下，则应在该值跌破80之前卖出股票.    

Generally, if the %K value rises above the %D, then a buy signal is indicated by this crossover, provided the values are under 80. If they are above this value, the security is considered overbought.  

      一般说来，如果K值上穿D值，且K和D都低于80，则此金叉表示应买入。若K、D均超过80，则被视为超买。  

Working the MACD

如何使用MACD  

As a versatile trading tool that can reveal price momentum, the MACD is also useful in the identification of price trend and direction. The MACD indicator has enough strength to stand alone, but its predictive function is not absolute. Used with another indicator, the MACD can really ramp up the trader's advantage. (Learn more about momentum trading in Momentum Trading With Discipline.)

    作为一个可揭示价格动量的万金油工具，MACD在确认价格趋势与运行方向上同样有用。不过MACD指标虽然强大，可单独使用，但其预测功能并不绝对。若同另一指标同时使用，则可切实的强化交易者的优势。（欲了解更多关于动量交易，请参看《动量交易规则》。）  

If a trader needs to determine trend strength and direction of a stock, overlaying its moving average lines onto the MACD histogram is very useful. The MACD can also be viewed as a histogram alone. (Learn more in An Introduction To The MACD Histogram.)  

    如果交易者需要判定一只股票趋势的强弱和方向，将移动平均线叠合在MACD柱状图上就会非常有用。也可以单独使用MACD柱状图。（参看《MACD柱状图使用介绍》。）  

MACD Calculation  

如何计算MACD  

To bring in this oscillating indicator that fluctuates above and below zero, a simple MACD calculation is required. By subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) of a security's price from a 12-day moving average of its price, an oscillating indicator value comes into play. Once a trigger line (the nine-day EMA) is added, the comparison of the two creates a trading picture. If the MACD value is higher than the nine-day EMA, then it is considered a bullish moving average crossover.

    为了引入这个在零值上下波动的摆动指标，需要进行一个简单的MACD计算。用一只股票股价的12日指数平均值（EMA）减去一个26日的指数平均数指标，得到一个摆动指标值。一旦加入一条触发线（9日EMA），则二者的对比即形成了一幅交易图。如果MACD值一旦上穿9日EMA值，则被认为产生移动平均线金叉。  

It's helpful to note that there are a few well-known ways to use the MACD:

    了解一些为人熟知的MACD使用方法将不无裨益。

Foremost is the watching for divergences or a crossover of the center line of the histogram; the MACD illustrates buy opportunities above zero and sell opportunities below.

    最主要的方法就是寻找柱状图零轴线处的背离和交叉；柱状在零轴上方为买入信号，零轴下方是卖出信号。   

Another is noting the moving average line crossovers and their relationship to the center line. (For more, see Trading The MACD Divergence.)  

    另一方法是观察移动平均线的交叉以及这些交叉与中轴线的关系。（参看《MACD背离交易》。）  

Identifying and Integrating Bullish Crossovers  

确认及综合使用金叉  

To be able to establish how to integrate a bullish MACD crossover and a bullish stochastic crossover into a trend-confirmation strategy, the word "bullish" needs to be explained. In the simplest of terms, "bullish" refers to a strong signal for continuously rising prices. A bullish signal is what happens when a faster moving average crosses up over a slower moving average, creating market momentum and suggesting further price increases.  

    为了能建立一套将MACD金叉和KDJ金叉综合运用于趋势确认策略的方法，在此有必要解释一下“金叉”。用最简单的话说，“金叉”就是一个强烈的信号，该信号发生之后股价持续上扬。当快速移动平均线上穿慢速平均线之时即发出此金叉信号，产生市场动量并暗示之后股价上涨。  

In the case of a bullish MACD, this will occur when the histogram value is above the equilibrium line, and also when the MACD line is of a greater value than the nine-day EMA, also called the "MACD signal line."  

       MACD产生做多信号时，柱状值在零轴线之上，MACD线在9日EMA线（或称MACD讯号线）之上。  

The stochastic's bullish divergence occurs when %K value passes the %D, confirming a likely price turnaround.  

    当KDJ指标的K值超过D值便产生KDJ底背离，即可能产生价格趋势的反转。  

Crossovers In Action: Genesee & Wyoming Inc. (NYSE:GWR)

       实战交叉法演示：以Genesee & Wyoming Inc.(纽交所代码：GWR)为例。

Below is an example of how and when to use a stochastic and MACD double cross.  

       下例说明怎样以及何时运用KDJ和MACD双金叉。

Figure 1http://i.investopedia.com/inv/articles/site/AT-MACD.gif

图一http://i.investopedia.com/inv/articles/site/AT-MACD.gif  

  

Source: StockCharts.com

  

图片来源：StockCharts.com  

Note the green lines that show when these two indicators moved in sync and the near-perfect cross shown at the right-hand side of the chart.

       注意KDJ和MACD同向移动时，绿柱显现，图片右边有一次几近完美的金叉。

You may notice that there are a couple of instances when the MACD and the stochastics are close to crossing simultaneously - January 2008, mid-March and mid-April, for example. It even looks like they did cross at the same time on a chart of this size, but when you take a closer look, you'll find that they did not actually cross within two days of each other, which was the criterion for setting up this scan. You may want to change the criteria so that you include crosses that occur within a wider time frame, so that you can capture moves like the ones shown below.  

    你可能会注意到，有几次MACD和KDJ几乎同时金叉——比如2008年1月、3月中旬和4月中旬。以该图的尺寸来看这些金叉甚至像是同一时刻发生的。但仔细看看，你会发现这些金叉发生的时间彼此相隔了至少2天-----这是筛选出这幅图的参数标准。你也许想改变参数，以便能够包含更多相隔时间更长一点的金叉，可以捕捉到下面提到的趋势。  

It's important to understand that changing the settings parameters can help produce a prolonged trendline, which helps a trader avoid a whipsaw. This is accomplished by using higher values in the interval/time-period settings. This is commonly referred to as "smoothing things out." Active traders, of course, use much shorter time frames in their indicator settings and would reference a five-day chart instead of one with months or years of price history.  

    更改设置参数可以产生一个更长的趋势线，因此可以帮助交易者避免洗盘，明白这一点很重要。只需将时间间隔值调高就可完成该设置。这通常被叫做“熨平干扰因素”。当然，激进的交易者在他们的指标设置中使用更短的时间周期。他们会使用历史价格的5天图而非月线图或者年线图。  

The Strategy  

双金叉交易策略  

First, look for the bullish crossovers to occur within two days of each other. Keep in mind that when applying the stochastic and MACD double-cross strategy, ideally the crossover occurs below the 50 line on the stochastic to catch a longer price move. And preferably, you want the histogram value to be or move higher than zero within two days of placing your trade.  

    首先，寻找发生间隔在两天之内的MACD和KDJ双金叉。需要牢记的是，当运用KDJ和MACD双金叉策略时，理想的情况是KDJ金叉值小于50，如此可以捕捉到一段更长的价格趋势。若2日内MACD柱值为零或者大于零时交易，则为更佳。  

Also note that the MACD must cross slightly after the stochastic, as the alternative could create a false indication of the price trend or place you in sideways trend.    

    同时还需注意，MACD金叉需稍晚于KDJ金叉，因为这个选择性的指标可能造成价格趋势假象，并使你陷入横盘。  

Finally, it is safer to trade stocks that are trading above their 200-day moving averages, but it is not an absolute necessity.  

    最后一点，在股票的200天移动平均线上交易更为安全，不过这并非必需条件。  

The Advantage  

双金叉策略的优势  

This strategy gives traders an opportunity to hold out for a better entry point on uptrending stock or to be surer that any downtrend is truly reversing itself when bottom-fishing for long-term holds. This strategy can be turned into a scan where charting software permits.  

    双金叉策略赋予交易者机会以持币观望、等待股票上升趋势中更好的介入点，或者能够更加确定下降趋势真地发生逆转，以抄底并长期持有。如果有画图软件，则此策略可制成筛选系统。  

The Disadvantage  

双金叉策略的缺陷  

With every advantage that any strategy presents, there is always a disadvantage to the technique. Because the stock generally takes a longer time to line up in the best buying position, the actual trading of the stock occurs less frequently, so you may need a larger basket of stocks to watch.  

    每种交易策略都有其优点，也同样有其不足。因为股票总是用更长的时间才能形成清晰的趋势线以显示最佳买入点，致使实际的交易不如金叉次数般频繁，因此你需要观察一个更大的股票池。  

Trick of the Trade  

双金叉策略的交易窍门  

The stochastic and MACD double cross allows for the trader to change the intervals, finding optimal and consistent entry points. This way it can be adjusted for the needs of both active traders and investors. Experiment with both indicator intervals and you will see how the crossovers will line up differently, and then choose the number of days that work best for your trading style. You may also want to add an RSI indicator into the mix, just for fun. (Read Ride The RSI Rollercoaster for more on this indicator.)  

    双金叉策略使交易者能够改变时间间隔长短，找到最佳的、两个指标互相确认的介入点。如此一调整，激进的交易者和投资者的需求都能得到满足。将MACD和KDJ两个指标的时间参数都做一些调整，那么就可以看到不同的趋势中怎样形成指标的金叉，然后选定最适合你自己的操作风格的时间设置。你也可以再加上相对强弱指标RSI，会更有趣。（预知详情请参看《坐上RSI的过山车》。）  

Conclusion  

结论  

Separately, the stochastic oscillator and MACD function on different technical premises and work alone. Compared to the stochastic, which ignores market jolts, the MACD is a more reliable option as a sole trading indicator. However, just like two heads, two indicators are usually better than one! The stochastic and MACD are an ideal pairing and can provide for an enhanced and more effective trading experience.  

    分开来说，KDJ和MACD的功能基于不同的技术前提，并且独立发生作用。KDJ忽略了市场波动，与之相比，MACD是更为可靠的独立交易指标。然而，就如两人智慧相合强于一人，两个指标同时使用比独用一个要好！KDJ和MACD是对理想的指标组合，并且可以使交易更为可靠和有效。  

For further reading on using the stochastic oscillator and MACD together, see Combined Forces Power Snap Strategy.  

    欲知更多关于如何同时使用KDJ和MACD，请参看《联合的力量——轻松搞定交易》。